Search This Blog

Friday, February 28, 2014

Did you ace the test?

I hope so! If you did not yet take the test you are expected to make it up next week. I am available Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday after school.. Additionally, you can make up the test during any period of the day for study hall or lunch, just let me know ahead of time.

And now we move on from probability! Of course we still need to know it for the AP exam, so it never hurts to review. We're at the point where it's time to start preparing...the AP exam is only 2 months (ish) away! We will not finish the curriculum early enough to review in class. There will be reviews after school, maybe over April break, and on one more Saturday, but it is your responsibility to prepare yourself for the AP exam. You cannot cram all this stuff in one night. Start reviewing now! (Not to mention, we will take our universal screen one last time before the AP Exam, and it'll count as a major test grade...so review!)

As for this weekend's homework: please complete the chapter 18 reading quiz provided in class. If you don't have it, you can find the questions below. This will be counted as a quiz grade--there's no reason not to get a 100%!

Chapter 18 Reading Quiz
Use your textbook to answer each of the questions below. Be sure to write your answers in detail and using appropriate vocabulary.

1.      READ THE CHAPTER. The more time you put into trying to understand this on your own, the better off you’ll be. We will be moving quickly through the rest of the course, spending no more than 4 days on this section. These questions are designed for you to prove that you read the chapter.

2.      Define sampling error or sampling variability. (1 point)

3.      Three conditions are outlined (on page 413) for a sampling distribution of sample proportions; name each of these conditions in the space below, and provide a brief description of each. (2 points)

4. Define the sampling distribution model for a proportion. That is, provide the formulas/values for the mean and standard deviation for a sampling distribution model for a proportion (provided on page 414). Use correct (symbolic) notation. (1 point)

***Try the “just checking” questions on page 415 (and page 422). You don’t need to write anything down, but these are the types of questions you might be asked. The answers are on page 431 (at the bottom).***

5. Read through the step by step examples on page 416 and page 423. Your job it to describe a general step-by-step process that we can follow to solve these types of problems. So, do not show me all of the math/work that is done; instead, look at the examples and provide a numbered, step-by-step process for how we approach a sampling distribution problem. (2 points)

6.  Define the Central Limit Theorem, also known as the Fundamental Theorem of Statistics. (page 419). (1 point)

7. Define the sampling distribution model for a mean. That is, provide the formulas/values for the mean and standard deviation for a sampling distribution model for a mean (provided on page 421). Use correct (symbolic) notation. (1 point)

8. Use the following words to fill in the blanks below. (One word is used twice): (1 point)
Quantitative, Categorical, Proportions, Means, Normal

“The sampling distribution for ______________ is a ______________ model and is used for

___________________ data. ”

““The sampling distribution for ______________ is a ___________ model and used for

_________________data.”

9. There are three assumptions/conditions that must be met for a sampling distribution of sample means described on page 422. Provide the names and a brief description of each of these three conditions. (2 points)

10. What is standard error? (Define it!) (1 point)

11. Use the glossary at the back of chapter 18 to define sampling distribution model. (1 point)


12. List each of the terms provided at the end of chapter 18 (page 427). This is your chapter 18 vocab list. (1 point)


Thursday, February 27, 2014

STUDY, STUDY, STUDY!

TEST TOMORROW! CHAPTERS 14,15,16,17!

This test is tough...make sure you're prepared! If you aren't sure what you're doing, it's going to be tough to finish in time; it's of the utmost importance that you review, study, and come with a solid understanding!

ALL OF YOU WHO WERE ABSENT WILL BE TAKING THE TEST. BE READY.

Here's lots of info about the test to narrow down your focus...

Part 1: Vocab Matching (20 points):

  • There are 10 vocabulary words with 10 definitions (so no doubles, no extras)
  • You are expected to finish this in about 10 minutes...make sure you know your stuff!
  • Some words to know...conditional probability, expected value, geometric probability, binomial probability...
Part 2: Multiple Choice (7 questions, 3 points each):
  • Find probabilities with a contingency table/two way table (like the Titanic table)
  • Conditional Probability
  • "At least 1" problems
  • Combining random variables (mean and standard deviation)
  • Remember that homework we had, over a weekend, that dealt with playing a game twice and finding the sum of the two scores? Study that worksheet...
  • Tree diagrams 
  • Venn Diagrams
Part 3: Free Response (26 points):
  • Geometric and binomial probability
  • Expected value and standard deviation of a probability model (we just use the calculator for Sx)
  • Interpret expected value
  • Combining random variables--check out #33, the cereal problem, in chapter 16 (all of it!)
  • Using a Normal model
Here's an example that we did today in class for those of you who were absent:

The amount of money Dayjah raises for senior assessments is Normally distributed with a mean of $150 and a standard deviation of $12. The amount Jason raises is Normally distributed with a mean of $200 and a standard deviation of $15. The amounts they collect are independent.
a. Find the mean and standard deviation for how much more money Jason raises.
b. What is the probability that Dayjah raises more money than Jason?

And lastly, here are the answers to #20 on the homework:
a.) 0.201
b.) 0.453
c.) 0.171
d.) 0.989

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Test is Coming...

I know the stuff we're doing lately is tough, and I know we're moving quickly...we have to. That just means it's even more important to put in the necessary work to study outside of class and come get help when you need it! We'll keep moving quickly so that we can finish by May 9th!

I have to modify the homework assignment that's due Friday, as we did not learn some of the stuff on the original problem set. Therefore, the following problems will be checked on Friday:

Homework Due Friday:
Page 399: 11, 13, 15, 19, 20, 23ab (*For 23, use your formula sheet to find the binomial mean and standard deviation; then, for part b, check the success failure condition).
Page 403: 9

Enjoy! Keep studying for Friday!

If you're going on the senior trip tomorrow, have fun! Bring your short AP Stat assignment with you and help each other out on your bus ride! Get an A!

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Binomial Probability...

Tomorrow we wrap up probability (hopefully) after our chapter 16 vocab quiz!

The vocab list below is for tomorrow's quiz:
  • Bernouilli Trial
  • Geometric Probability
  • Binomial Probability
  • Success/Failure Condition
    • This tells us that if np and nq are both bigger than 10 we can use a Normal model to find binomial probabilities
  • 10% Condition (what is it? and what is it used for?)
  • Binompdf( vs. Binomcdf(
    • BinomPdf is used for an exact number of successes
    • BinomCdf is used for multiple numbers of successes, as in an "at least," "at most," or "between" question
  • Recognize Conditional Probability (read through different questions and identify which is/is not conditional)
  • Standard Deviation
  • Expected Value
As for the textbook problems, I will check all of the problems below on Friday. (So I won't be looking for anything specifically tomorrow, as we still need to learn some more stuff to get these done). This will count as a double homework assignment.

Page 399: 11, 13, 15, 19, 20, 23, 27
Page 403: 9

And lastly...turns out it would be impossible to google that AP problem as I suggested; I didn't realize I changed the names. Here's a link to the solution (and sorry about that): It's 2008 #3.

http://apcentral.collegeboard.com/apc/public/repository/ap08_statistics_sgs.pdf



Monday, February 24, 2014

Monday!

Today started our first 5 day week of school in a loooooong time. Hope you're ready for it!

Tonight, please complete the "Juana and Carroll" AP problem. This deals with expected value and the stuff we learned prior--so no binomial or geometric probability on this one.

Period B (or anyone who was absent or lost the paper): You can find the questions below. Enjoy!

AP Free Response Problem:
A nearby video store is holding a tournament where contestants play a video game with scores ranging from 0 to 20. There are multiple game stations set up so that all contestants play simultaneously; thus, contestant scores are independent. Each score will be recorded as a player finishes, and the player with the highest score is the winner.
After practicing many times, Juana, one of the contestants, has created the probability distribution of her scores, shown below.
Juana’s Distribution
Score
16
17
18
19
Probability
0.10
0.30
0.40
0.20

Carroll, another player, has also practiced multiple times and created the probability distribution shown below.
                                                                                                   Carroll’s Distribution
Score
17
18
19
Probability
0.45
0.40
0.15

1. Find the expected score for each player. Write your answer in a complete sentence, in context.

2. Suppose Juana scores 16 and Carroll scores 17. The difference (J – C) of their scores is -1. Find all combinations of possible scores for Juana and Carroll that will produce a difference (J – C) of -1, and calculate the probability of each combination.

3. Calculate the probability that the difference (J – C) between their scores is -1.

4. The following table lists all possible differences in scores between Juana and Carroll and the associated probabilities.
Distribution (Juana minus Carroll)
Difference
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Probability
0.015


0.325
0.260
0.090


5. Complete the table and calculate the probability that Carroll’s score will be greater than Juana’s score. 

Friday, February 21, 2014

Weekend HW!

Some chapter 17 homework tonight....the last chapter of probability....we're getting there....

Please complete the following:
Page 398: 1,7,9,11a,13a,15a

On Monday we'll get back into our chapter 17 notes as we try to finish up. Next week's going to be a crazy one, with a few trips going on--but class will keep moving! If you know you'll be out, make sure you stay on top of any work you miss!

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Stats Homework!

Tonight's Homework...the last of chapter 16...

Page 383: 27, 31bc, 33, 37

Enjoy!

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Back to Work!

Hopefully you got an "A" on this take home test!

Don't forget...chapter 16 vocab quiz is tomorrow!

Tonight's Homework:
Please complete the 3 AP problems (Machine Repairs, Concert Tickets, and Runners) provided in class.

Tomorrow we'll start getting into chapter 17--binomial and geometric probability--after our quiz! Wooooooooooo!

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

School tomorrow?!

Your chapter 16 vocab quiz will be next week, no matter what happens tomorrow (because I did not remind anyone today in class). The vocab quiz will be given next Wednesday, when we return.

This weekend, please be sure to complete your take home test! If you lost it (or were absent), you can find it uploaded under our classroom resources. This will have a major impact on your grade! Get an A!

Feel free to email with any questions, as always. I'll post Wednesday night's homework (from the textbook) in a couple days, so you can get a head start and get it done this weekend if you like!

Hopefully I see you tomorrow! If not, enjoy the long weekend!

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Two'sday Homework...

Tonight, more expected value...

Please complete the following in your textbook:

Page 381: 5,13,19,21

Remember, all make up work is due by the end of Thursday. BUTTT.....looks like we may not have school, so make sure you get everything done tomorrow! A snow day will not push back this deadline--it'll just mean everything is due tomorrow!

Monday, February 10, 2014

Monday HW!

Chapter 16! Wooo! Expected value and variance!

Tonight, please complete the following:

Page 381: 3/11, 7, 15, 17

Enjoy!

If you're interested in Stats and maybe even thought about majoring in it, I added two pretty awesome links on the right. One is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and has information about being a Statistician. The other is from the American Statistical Association and describes different potential career paths for someone with a stat degree. Check it out!

Also, don't forget--short quiz tomorrrow! Tree diagrams, Venn diagrams, and conditional probability!

Friday, February 7, 2014

Weekend Homework...

This weekend, please complete the "expected value" assignment (provided in class and below) to start us on chapter 16...

**All of the expected value stuff is in chapter 16. If you're looking for an example to see how it's calculated, see page 369--or, of course, you can always google it!

Uncovering Expected Value
1.       The number of points obtained in one game is independent of the number of points obtained in a second game. When the game is played twice, the sum of the number of points for both times could be 0,1,2,3, or 4. If Y represents the (sampling distribution of the) sum of the two scores when the game is played twice, for which value of Y will the probability be the greatest?
                For one play:
                                                                P(0) = 0.4                             P(1) = 0.3                             P(2) = 0.3
Find the probability for each sum to complete the probability distribution below:
Outcome (Sum)
0
1
2
3
4
Probability






2.       Let’s turn this into a game (yes, gambling)! Suppose we want to designate the following prize values:
$0, $100, $200, $300, and $500
Suppose we’re a casino and designed this game (to earn money). Which prizes should be allotted to which sums?
Outcome (Sum)
0
1
2
3
4
Prize





Probability






3. Find the expected value for the amount of the prize. Interpret this value.
4. How much money would a player expect to earn (or lose) after 100 plays?

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Probably no school tomorrow?

Easy night tonight, because hopefully you've gotten started on these problems already....each problem uses a tree diagram--no trees tomorrow, no homework credit!

Tonight's Homework:
Page 365: 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45 

**ALL MAKEUP WORK--HOMEWORK, QUIZZES, TESTS--anything--MUST BE COMPLETED BEFORE FEBRUARY BREAK (next Friday).




Monday, February 3, 2014

Enjoy the snow!

I don't know about you, but I didn't see this coming at all!

Enjoy the day off, but if you're feeling productive it would be a good time to review some tree diagrams or make up any assignments you may owe (especially homework!)

Unfortunately for us, this just gives us 1 less day (and we may lose another Wednesday) to get ready for the AP Exam. :(

Also, I will be out of the classroom at co-teaching training with Mr. Cawley tomorrow. Be sure to work hard on your AP Free Response and Multiple choice with the sub! Both will be collected and graded.

The chapter 15 vocab quiz will be taken at the start of class Wednesday (or Thursday if we're off).

So here's a recap of the next few days and what's due:

Tuesday: Complete the AP multiple choice and AP free-response in class. Both will be graded. Homework for Tuesday is Page 365: 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45

Wednesday: Chapter 15 vocab quiz. Then we'll finish our chapter 15 notes.