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Friday, March 31, 2017

Saturday Session Tomorrow!

1) We have our MANDATORY SATURDAY SESSION TOMORROW!
  • If you need to switch your time, no big deal...just let me know via email or Remind!
  • First half of the Saturday: chapter 23 classwork (in groups), finish ch. 23 notes
  • Second half: starting "new stuff!" (chapter 24)

Since we have school on a Saturday there is no homework this weekend--unless you won't be there, then you have to do all that classwork I gave you! Have it done for Monday or you'll have a 0 on your first grades of the 4th quarter!

2.) If you did not bring your stamps in yet I'll take them tomorrow, but that's your last chance!
  • Count up your stamps and record the the total on the front (with your name)
  • Put them in a bag or staple them together--somehow get them all together
  • Double check your count! I'll randomly select 5 students to double check, and if your count is off you get a 0! (Gotta be able to count in AP Stat :) )

3.) MANDATORY AP MEETING after school, next Thursday, April 6th!
  • Meeting starts promptly at 2:20 in the cafe!
  • Tell your coaches about this ahead of time! All athletic peeps have been notified!
  • Be there!

See you all tomorrow!

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Thursday HW = Last Homework of Q3!

1.) Tonight, please complete the following--this homework assignment sums up many of the main ideas we need to know from chapter 23!

Page 541: 3, 15, 21, 31
  • For 21, write your hypotheses! You got this! Same ideas as a with a one proportion z-test, but we use "mu" instead of "p" in our hypotheses!
  • For 31, remember that the "evidence" they want is a hypothesis test!
Last homework of the quarter? COUNTS DOUBLE!

A few more reminders...

2.) STAMPS ARE DUE TOMORROW! I WILL NOT ACCEPT THEM AFTER TOMORROW!
  • Count up your stamps and record the the total on the front (with your name)
  • Put them in a bag or staple them together--somehow get them all together
  • Double check your count! I'll randomly select 5 students to double check, and if your count is off you get a 0! (Gotta be able to count in AP Stat :) )


3.) We have our MANDATORY SATURDAY SESSION this weekend! 
  • Be sure to sign up for a time slot!
  • If you need to switch your time, no big deal...
  • First half of the Saturday: chapter 23 classwork (in groups) (about 40 min)
  • Second half: starting "new stuff!" (chapter 24) (45 min)
  • And since we'll be at school on a Saturday I won't give you any homework this weekend...


4.) MANDATORY AP MEETING after school, next Thursday, April 6th!
  • Meeting starts promptly at 2:20 in the cafe!
  • Tell your coaches about this ahead of time! All athletic peeps have been notified!
  • Be there!

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Wednesday HW!

Tonight please complete the following in your textbook (T-Interval practice!)

Page 541: 5, 9, 11, 25abdf

  • For #5, all of the statements (a-e) are incorrect--your job is to describe/explain WHY each is incorrect!
  • For #11 we'll use our calculator to create the interval (of course), but here we'll have to enter the "Stats" rather than "Data" when we choose T-Interval
    • When you show the formula for 11b just write "t*" in the formula; we'll talk about where this comes from tomorrow
  • For 25abdf we need the 4 steps to the hypothesis test! (a = hypotheses, b = conditions, d = math, f = conclusion)
If you're feeling ambitious, here's tomorrow night's (Thursday's) homework--although this one might require you to do some research/reading in chapter 23 for 1,3! This homework assignment sums up many of the main ideas we need to know from chapter 23!

Page 541: 1abc, 13d, 15, 21, 31
  • For 1ab you have to use invt( in your calculator to find t*!
  • For 1c you have to use tcdf( to find a p-value!
  • For 13d you need to find sample size given a ME!
    • Set up the equation ME = (crit value)(st. dev. of statistic)
    • We cannot find t* without n, so we'll have to use z* for the critical value!
    • Do some algebra and solve!
  • For 21, write your hypotheses! You got this! Same ideas as a with a one proportion z-test, but we use "mu" instead of "p" in our hypotheses!
  • For 31, remember that the "evidence" they want is a hypothesis test!
Since these are the last two homework assignments of the quarter I'm counting both as double! 

A few more reminders...

1.) STAMPS ARE DUE TOMORROW!

  • Count up your stamps and record the the total on the front (with your name)
  • Put them in a bag or staple them together--somehow get them all together
  • Double check your count! I'll randomly select 5 students to double check, and if your count is off you get a 0! (Gotta be able to count in AP Stat :) )
2.) We have our MANDATORY SATURDAY SESSION this weekend! 
  • Be sure to sign up for a time slot!
  • If you need to switch your time, no big deal...
  • First half of the Saturday: chapter 23 classwork (in groups) (about 40 min)
  • Second half: starting "new stuff!" (chapter 24) (45 min)
  • And since we'll be at school on a Saturday I won't give you any homework this weekend...
3.) MANDATORY AP MEETING after school, next Thursday, April 6th!
  • Meeting starts promptly at 2:20 in the cafe!
  • Tell your coaches about this ahead of time! All athletic peeps have been notified!
  • Be there!

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Tuesday HW and Stamps and Meeting Next Week and Saturday

Lots of stuff to consider...

1.) Tonight please complete the 7 MC questions provided in class (or below)! 

  • These are all from AP exams, and although some of them deal with means, you got this! 
  • This is another example of some AP exam prep as we inch closer to May 11th!


2.) STAMPS ARE DUE TOMORROW!

  • Count up your stamps and record the the total on the front (with your name)
  • Put them in a bag or staple them together--somehow get them all together
  • Double check your count! I'll randomly select 5 students to double check, and if your count is off you get a 0! (Gotta be able to count in AP Stat :) )
3.) We have our MANDATORY SATURDAY SESSION this weekend! 
  • Be sure to sign up for a time slot!
  • If you need to switch your time, no big deal...
  • First half of the Saturday: chapter 23 classwork (in groups) (about 40 min)
  • Second half: starting "new stuff!" (chapter 24) (45 min)
  • And since we'll be at school on a Saturday I won't give you any homework this weekend...
4.) MANDATORY AP MEETING after school, next Thursday, April 6th!
  • Meeting starts promptly at 2:20 in the cafe!
  • Tell your coaches about this ahead of time! All athletic peeps have been notified!
  • Be there!
Here are tonight's multiple choice in case you lost yours or were out:





Monday, March 27, 2017

Test Tomorrow!

Tonight STUDY, STUDY, STUDY! End the third quarter with your highest test grade thus far!


The test has two sections:
  • Vocab Section
    • 20 matching terms to definitions
    • 5 questions on the back where you are given a context/scenario and asked what type of test or interval would be used for that scenario!
    • Here's the vocab list (chapters 19 to 22):
      • Confidence Interval
      • Hypothesis Test
      • Critical Value
      • Standard Error
      • Margin of Error
      • Confidence Level
      • Null Hypothesis
      • Alternative Hypothesis
      • Standardized Test Statistic
      • P-Value
      • Alpha level (know 2 definitions)
      • Beta
      • Reject the null hypothesis (for what types of p-values?)
      • Fail to reject the null hypothesis (for what types of p-values?)
      • One tailed test (a test that aims to show an increase or decrease in a parameter)
      • Two tailed test (a test that aims to show a difference or change in a parameter)
      • Type 1 Error
      • Type 2 Error
      • Power
      • Pooling (when we combine our sample data (from both samples) to calculate an overall proportion)

    • Math Section: covering all of 2 proportion z intervals and tests! (chapter 22)
      • Look over your weekend homework (key posted below)! This homework outlines everything you need to know for the test!
      • You can also look over the "Types of Error" stamp and the 3 multiple choice questions that were passed back today!
      • Want more math practice?! Try the "Chapter 22 Quiz B" below! (period A I forgot to hand this out, sorry about that!)


    Chapter 22 Quiz B

    In 2000, the United Nations claimed that there was a higher rate of illiteracy in men than in women from the country of Qatar. A humanitarian organization went to Qatar to conduct a random sample. The results showed that 45 out of 234 men and 42 out of 251 women were classified as illiterate on the same measurement test.

    1. Do the samples above provide evidence that the United Nations’ claim was correct—that there was a higher illiteracy rate in men than in women (in Qatar)? Test an appropriate hypothesis and state your conclusion.
    2. Show the appropriate mathematics and calculate a 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions of illiteracy in men and women from Qatar. Then, interpret your interval.
    • And here is the key to the Quiz B Practice:
    •  

    • And finally, here is the key to the weekend homework in case you were out--use this to study!




    Friday, March 24, 2017

    Weekend HW!

    This weekend please complete the "Inference for Two Proportions" worksheet provided in class--this homework is a summary of what we need to know about chapter 22 for our test! Put in max effort!

    Here are the questions in case you lost your paper or were out:

    Inference for Two Proportions
    1.)    Among 242 Cleveland-area children born prematurely at low birth weights between 1977 and 1979, only 74% graduated from high school. Among a comparison group of 233 children of normal birth weight, 83% were high school graduates.
    a.) Verify that the conditions for a 2 Proportion Z Interval are met. (4 points)
    b.) Create a 95% confidence interval to estimate the difference in graduation rates between children of normal and very low birth weights. Show the appropriate formula and interval below. (5 points)
    c.) Interpret the meaning of your interval, in context. (5 points)
    d.) Based on your interval above, do you believe there is a significant difference in the proportion of normal and low birth weight babies who graduate? Explain your reasoning. (3 points)
    2.) Using an appropriate hypothesis test, determine if there is a statistically significant difference between graduation rates of normal and low birth weight babies. Test the hypotheses at the 10% significance level. (We’ll skip the conditions since they’ve been checked above).
                    i.) State your null and alternative hypotheses, using appropriate notation. (2 points)
    ii.)  Find the z-score and then your p-value. Show a shaded Normal model, as well as the appropriate z-score formula. (4 points)
    iii.) Is there statistically significant difference between graduation rates of normal and low birth weight babies? Use your p-value to write your conclusion below. (5(4 points) points)
    3. Among 242 Cleveland-area children born prematurely at low birth weights between 1977 and 1979, only 74% graduated from high school. Among a comparison group of 233 children of normal birth weight, 83% were high school graduates. Researchers plan to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between graduation rates of normal and low birth weight babies; if there is, schools will provide costly additional educational resources and support for the low birth weight students. If not, no support will be provided.
    a.) Based on this scenario regarding premature children, explain what a Type I error would be and name one consequence. (4 points)

    b.) Based on this scenario regarding premature children, explain what a Type 2 error would be and name one consequence. (4 points)


    This homework assignment has us studying for the "math" portion of our test on Tuesday! Start studying your vocab too! Here's the list--if a word was not on a previous vocab quiz the definition is provided:

    • Confidence Interval
    • Hypothesis Test
    • Critical Value
    • Standard Error
    • Margin of Error
    • Confidence Level
    • Null Hypothesis
    • Alternative Hypothesis
    • Standardized Test Statistic
    • P-Value
    • Alpha level (know 2 definitions)
    • Beta
    • Reject the null hypothesis (for what types of p-values?)
    • Fail to reject the null hypothesis (for what types of p-values?)
    • One tailed test (a test that aims to show an increase or decrease in a parameter)
    • Two tailed test (a test that aims to show a difference or change in a parameter)
    • Type 1 Error
    • Type 2 Error
    • Power
    • Pooling (when we combine our sample data (from both samples) to calculate an overall proportion)

    And finally, e sure to sign up for our MANDATORY SATURDAY SESSION on APRIL 1st! The sign up sheet is in the back of the classroom!
    • We're using this time as another class, so we'll be learning new stuff!
    • We'll do some new learning and some practice in this time...
    • You can also sign up for April 22nd, but you don't have to yet...
    • Remember, the April vacation session is not mandatory...we'll talk more about that as we get closer...
      • You will have a take home test over April break; the review session will be an opportunity to come in and work on your take home test in groups and ask me any questions you might have!




    Thursday, March 23, 2017

    Thursday HW

    As you can tell from yesterday's post title I thought it was Tuesday...woops...

    So it's Thursday now, right?

    1.) Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook--some more practice with 2 proportion z intervals and 2 proportion z tests:

    Page 509: 15, 17, 27
    • Assume the conditions for inference have been satisfied for 15 and 17.
    • Check the conditions for 27!

    Tomorrow in class we'll finish our notes/discussion of chapter 22 with Mr. Mason! Then we'll have some weekend homework for a little more practice, and it's on to chapter 23 on Monday! And don't forget--we'll have our last test of the quarter on Tuesday! Half vocab (matching), half math (2 proportion z stuff)! So the more effort you put into your homework, the more you're studying!


    2.) Be sure to sign up for our MANDATORY SATURDAY SESSION on APRIL 1st! The sign up sheet is in the back of the classroom!
    • We're using this time as another class, so we'll be learning new stuff!
    • We'll do some new learning and some practice in this time...
    • You can also sign up for April 22nd, but you don't have to yet...
    • Remember, the April vacation session is not mandatory...we'll talk more about that as we get closer...
      • You will have a take home test over April break; the review session will be an opportunity to come in and work on your take home test in groups and ask me any questions you might have!


    Wednesday, March 22, 2017

    Two's Day HW!

    Tonight please complete the following in your textbook:

    Page 509: 11, 19, 21

    • For 11e you have to interpret the p-value--we haven't discussed this a ton in class; I want you to look at the answer in the back of the book and use this answer to help develop a better understanding of what a p-value means!
    • For 19 and 21 "Assume the conditions for inference have been satisfied.
    Feeling ambitious? Here's tomorrow night's homework (more practice with the intervals and tests!)

    Page 509: 15, 17, 27
    • Assume the conditions for inference have been satisfied for 15 and 17.
    • Check the conditions for 27!

    Be sure to sign up for our MANDATORY SATURDAY SESSION on APRIL 1st! The sign up sheet is in the back of the classroom!

    • We're using this time as another class, so we'll be learning new stuff! Be there!
    • You can also sign up for April 22nd, but you don't have to yet...
    • Remember, the April vacation session is not mandatory...we'll talk more about that as we get closer...
      • You will have a take home test over April break; the review session will be an opportunity to come in and work on your take home test in groups and ask me any questions you might have!



    Tuesday, March 21, 2017

    Tuesday HW!

    1.) Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook (some 2 prop z-int practice):

    Page 508: 3, 5bc, 7

    • We will move through this chapter very quickly (done Friday), so it's extremely important that you do your homework with max effort!
    • Skip conditions for #5 (Do the conditions for 3/7)

    *If you get stuck check out the step-by-step example on page 498-500!


    2.) Be sure to sign up for our MANDATORY SATURDAY SESSION on APRIL 1st! The sign up sheet is in the back of the classroom!

    • We're using this time as another class, so we'll be learning new stuff! Be there!
    • You can also sign up for April 22nd, but you don't have to yet...
    • Remember, the April vacation session is not mandatory...we'll talk more about that as we get closer...
      • You will have a take home test over April break; the review session will be an opportunity to come in and work on your take home test in groups and ask me any questions you might have!
    3.) Last chance for extra credit! If you didn't see last night's blog post you have one more night to do some extra credit....

    • Write the statements below on a separate piece of paper (for me to collect) -- you MUST write each statement to receive any extra credit!
    • Determine if the statement is true or false
    • If the statement is false, explain why OR change the statement to make it correct!
    • Here are the 5 statements:
    • 1.  A sample of 100 fuses from a very large shipment is found to have 10 that are defective. The 95% confidence interval would indicate that, for this shipment, the proportion of defective fuses is between 0 and 0.28.

      2. A point estimate consists of a single sample statistic that is used to estimate the true population parameter.

      3. A population parameter is used to estimate a confidence interval.

      4. Holding the sample size fixed, increasing the level of confidence in a confidence interval will lead to a wider confidence interval.

      5. The width of a confidence interval equals twice the margin of error.

    Monday, March 20, 2017

    Monday HW = Take Home Test (Extra Credit Below, too!)

    1.) First, please complete the 8 multiple choice questions provided in class--this will be collected tomorrow and graded as a take home test!
    • If you lost yours you can find the questions below
    • For #2 I would just enter x and n into the calculator, then enter each confidence level (obviously it's not A) and see which resulting interval comes closest to (60%, 69%)
      • It's C, D, or E....
    2.) Be sure to sign up for a time slot for our MANDATORY AP Saturday Sessions (April 1st and April 22nd)!
    • The times are 9-10:30, 10:30 - 12, or 12-1:30
    • You should sign up for one time slot on each date
    • Spots are "first come first serve," and once a time slot is filled you cannot choose that time
    • Pay attention to any other sessions!
    • Sign up sheet is on the bulletin board in our classroom!
    • We will be learning new stuff on these days! If you miss it'll be like missing 2 days of class! So don't do that!
    Tomorrow in class it's on to chapter 22--2 proportion tests and intervals! See you there!

    Oh...and here's the homework (take home test MC) in case you lost yours or were out:



    Want some extra credit?

    • Finally, if you want some extra credit, try out these True/False questions below
    • Write the statement on a separate piece of paper (for me to collect) -- you MUST write the statement to receive any extra credit!
    • Determine if the statement is true or false
    • If the statement is false, explain why OR change the statement to make it correct!

    • 1.  A sample of 100 fuses from a very large shipment is found to have 10 that are defective. The 95% confidence interval would indicate that, for this shipment, the proportion of defective fuses is between 0 and 0.28.
      2. A point estimate consists of a single sample statistic that is used to estimate the true population parameter.
      3. A population parameter is used to estimate a confidence interval.
      4. Holding the sample size fixed, increasing the level of confidence in a confidence interval will lead to a wider confidence interval.
      5. The width of a confidence interval equals twice the margin of error.


    Friday, March 17, 2017

    Test Monday!

    TEST MONDAY! A Monday test can mean one of two things--it either means you had a lot of extra time to prepare and study to ace it, or it means you show up cold after 2 days off of school and blow it. Don't let it mean the latter to you; use this extra time to prepare and get an A! This may be our last test of the quarter! (we'll see...)

    You have many resources to use to study:

    1.) Complete the "half sheet" review problems provided in class (or in blue, below); the answer key is provided below as well so you can check all of your work!

    2.) Look over the answer key provided about last night's homework about types of error!

    3.) Look at your stamps throughout this unit (including today's 2 MC question stamp)!

    4.) REVIEW YOUR NOTES!

    5.) Watch AP Stats Guy videos--anything about one proportion z intervals and one proportion z tests!

    6.) Use your Barron's book to review! Use the table of contents to look over anything "one proportion z interval" or "one proportion z test" related!

    7.) Feel free to email (carofano.fm@easthartford.org) or REMIND me with any questions!


    Ch. 19 - 21 TEST MONDAY!
    • Here are the chapter 19-21 summary/review questions you can use if you'd like to start preparing:
      1. AP Statistics Test Review: Ch. 19,20, 21 (hw for night before test)Mr. Carofano plans to estimate the true percentage of EHHS underclassmen who plan to take AP Statistics. He takes a sample of 120 underclassmen, and 29 of them plan to take AP Statistics. Based on past data, it is believe that approximately 10% of underclassmen take AP Statistics.
        1. Verify that the conditions for inference are satisfied.
        2. Calculate the margin of error for this sample (98% confidence).
        3. Estimate the true percentage of underclassmen who plan to take AP Stat using a 98% confidence interval.
        4. Interpret the meaning of this interval.
        5. Explain the meaning of “98% confidence.”
        6. How can Mr. Carofano narrow the width of his interval? What would cause the interval to widen?
        7. Based on your interval, do you believe the percentage of underclassmen who plan to take AP Stat has risen?
        8. Is there significant evidence to suggest that the percentage of underclassmen taking AP Stat is rising? Conduct and appropriate test at the 5% level of significance. (hypotheses, conditions, math, conclusion).
        9. Explain the meaning of the p-value, in context.
        10. If the percentage of students in AP Statistics has risen, more sections of the course will be offered and another teacher will be hired. If not, there will only be 3 classes offered.
          1. Identify the meaning of a Type I and Type II error in context.
          2. Identify a consequence of each.
        11. The probability of a Type I error is 5%, and the probability of a Type II is 15%. Calculate the power.
        12. Explain the meaning of the power of this test, in context.
        13. If Mr. Carofano wants a margin of error of only 4%, what sample size should be used (at 98% confidence)?
    And here is the chapter 19, 20, 21 review key:

    And finally, here's an outline of what's on your test:


    • There are open ended, multiple choice, and true false questions on the test
    • Find/identify x, n, and p-hat from a context (know how to calculate x and remember to always round x)
    • Conduct a full hypothesis test (one or two tailed) (chapters 20, 21)
      • Hypotheses, conditions, math, conclusion
    • Define Type I and Type II errors and a consequence of each (chapter 21)
    • Create a one proportion z interval (chapter 19)
      • Conditions, show the math formula/get interval on calculator, interpret the meaning of the interval
    • Use a confidence interval to "test a claim" (chapter 19, 21)
      • For example, does our interval of (0.77, 0.88) suggest that MA has met it's goal of surpassing 80% of drivers wearing seatbelts?
    • Find a p-value for a 2 sided test given the one sided p-value; or find the one sided p-value given the 2 sided p-value (like today's MC stamp)
    • Know how to increase power (either increase sample size or increase alpha)
    • Know how changing alpha affects beta and power
    • Calculate sample size given a margin of error
    • Find the power of a test given a false + and false - rate (remember a false - is a type 2 or beta!)
    • Know how to sample size and confidence level affect the width of an interval

    Thursday, March 16, 2017

    Thursday HW = Important Test Review (ch. 21)

    **Period E and F Students**

    • If you will be out tomorrow for the honors assembly please stop by at some point tomorrow (before school, after school, or during B,G, or H period) to get our stamp problem and the key for tonight's homework
    • Tonight's homework and tomorrow's stamp are direct review for Monday's test!
    • If you are free period A feel free to come to our period A Stat class so you don't miss anything!


    Tonight please complete the "Types of Error" practice worksheet provided in class (or below)! These questions summarize what we need to know about types of error and power and is some essential practice for our test!

    Chapter 21: Types of Error
    1. In attempt to increase the percentage of people wearing seat belts, Massachusetts instituted a “click-it or ticket” policy. Use of safety belts rose to 62% in 2003, with a goal of surpassing 80% by 2005. That year (in 2005), of 134 stopped drivers, 23 were not wearing their seatbelt. Does this provide evidence of meeting the goal? If we have met the goal, Massachusetts will cut back funding on the “click-it or ticket” program.
      1. Define each type of error and a consequence of each.
      2. If we use an alpha level of 0.05, what is the associated confidence level? (consider this: we have a one tailed test; if we're considering a 5% alpha level, that means we're trying to "cut off" 5% on the right side (since the Ha is >); the confidence interval/level is between these two regions cut off by the alpha level. If we cut off 5% on the right, we must do the same on the left (symmetric curve); what % does that leave for the middle? That's our C. Level)
                   
    2. A company is willing to renew its advertising contract with a local radio station only if the station can prove that more than 20% of the residents of the city have heard the ad and recognize the company’s product. The radio station conducts a random phone survey of 400 people.
      1. Write the hypotheses.
      2. Define a Type I error and identify a potential consequence.
      3. Define a Type 2 error and identify a potential consequence.
      4. Which alpha level--.01, .05, or .10—will maximize the power of this test?
      5. The company proposes the station call 600 people rather than 400. How will this affect the power? Will this make the risk of a Type I/Type II higher or lower?
    3. Testing for Alzheimer’s disease can be a long and expensive process, consisting of lengthy tests and medical diagnosis. Recently, a group of researchers devised a 7 minute test to serve as a quick screen for the disease for use in the general population of senior citizens. A patient who tested positive would then go through the more expensive battery of tests and medical diagnosis. The authors reported a false positive rate of 4% and a false negative rate of 8%.
      1. Define a Type I error and identify a potential consequence.
      2. Define a Type 2 error and identify a potential consequence.
      3. What is the alpha level?
      4. Calculate the power of this test.

    Ch. 19 - 21 TEST MONDAY!
    • We have a test coming up that covers all of chapters 19-21: confidence intervals and hypothesis tests!
    •  Start preparing now!
    • Here are some chapter 19-21 summary/review questions you can use if you'd like to start preparing:
      1. AP Statistics Test Review: Ch. 19,20, 21 (hw for night before test)Mr. Carofano plans to estimate the true percentage of EHHS underclassmen who plan to take AP Statistics. He takes a sample of 120 underclassmen, and 29 of them plan to take AP Statistics. Based on past data, it is believe that approximately 10% of underclassmen take AP Statistics.
        1. Verify that the conditions for inference are satisfied.
        2. Calculate the margin of error for this sample (98% confidence).
        3. Estimate the true percentage of underclassmen who plan to take AP Stat using a 98% confidence interval.
        4. Interpret the meaning of this interval.
        5. Explain the meaning of “98% confidence.”
        6. How can Mr. Carofano narrow the width of his interval? What would cause the interval to widen?
        7. Based on your interval, do you believe the percentage of underclassmen who plan to take AP Stat has risen?
        8. Is there significant evidence to suggest that the percentage of underclassmen taking AP Stat is rising? Conduct and appropriate test at the 5% level of significance. (hypotheses, conditions, math, conclusion).
        9. Explain the meaning of the p-value, in context.
        10. If the percentage of students in AP Statistics has risen, more sections of the course will be offered and another teacher will be hired. If not, there will only be 3 classes offered.
          1. Identify the meaning of a Type I and Type II error in context.
          2. Identify a consequence of each.
        11. The probability of a Type I error is 5%, and the probability of a Type II is 15%. Calculate the power.
        12. Explain the meaning of the power of this test, in context.
        13. If Mr. Carofano wants a margin of error of only 4%, what sample size should be used (at 98% confidence)?

    Monday, March 13, 2017

    Monday/Wednesday HW

    Enjoy the blizzard tomorrow! This might be your last chance to play in the snow this year! :)

    Unfortunately for us these snow days ultimately just mean less time for us to learn everything for the AP Exam (May 11th)! Therefore I need you all to step your game up and put in some strong effort for your homework--teaching yourself chapter 21!

    For homework tonight/tomorrow please be sure to complete the chapter 21 reading questions and vocab quiz provided in class (or below)!
    • Get this done! No excuses!
    • It is essential you put in max effort to learn about chapter 21 on your own! We'll be having a test that includes this content soon!
    • Chapter 21 Reading Questions:
    • Use your textbook to answer each of the questions below. We only have 1 to 2 days to review this stuff, so you have to teach yourself the foundational terms/concepts yourself—via these questions! Record the answers in your notebook (these are your notes!)
      1. What is a p-value? Record the definition of p-value—highlighted in blue on page 476.
      2. Below this blue section there is a sentence in italics about what the p-value is NOT (on p. 476). Copy this sentence below!
      3. Record the highlighted blue text on the top half of page 477.
      4. Now, read the bottom of page 477, “Alpha Levels.” This references alpha levels and statistical significance; record the blue statement on the bottom of p. 477, and the blue section on the top of p. 478 in your own words.
      5. Much of this chapter delves deeper into the details about hypothesis testing. However, we are going to introduce two new ideas: type I and type II error!
        1. What is a type one error? (read the bottom of p. 482)
        2. What is/define a type two error.
      6. An alpha level represents the “cutoff” value we use to decide if we reject the null hypothesis—but it’s also connected to Type I error. How so? Look at one of the blue highlighted pieces on page 483 and state how alpha relates to Type I error.
      7. What is the power of a test? (blue stuff on page 483 AND on read the “power” section on p. 484).
        1. Read the entire section about power on p. 484 and record your own notes about power!
      8. How do we calculate power? (look at the bullets on p. 487)
      9. What is effect size? (p. 485)



    You can also begin the "Types of Error" practice worksheet provided in class (or below)! This will be our homework either Wednesday or Thursday (whenever we get back to school)! These questions summarize what we need to know about types of error and power!

    Chapter 21: Types of Error
    1. In attempt to increase the percentage of people wearing seat belts, Massachusetts instituted a “click-it or ticket” policy. Use of safety belts rose to 62% in 2003, with a goal of surpassing 80% by 2005. That year (in 2005), of 134 stopped drivers, 23 were not wearing their seatbelt. Does this provide evidence of meeting the goal? If we have met the goal, Massachusetts will cut back funding on the “click-it or ticket” program.
      1. Define each type of error and a consequence of each.
      2. If we use an alpha level of 0.05, what is the associated confidence level?
                   
    2. A company is willing to renew its advertising contract with a local radio station only if the station can prove that more than 20% of the residents of the city have heard the ad and recognize the company’s product. The radio station conducts a random phone survey of 400 people.
      1. Write the hypotheses.
      2. Define a Type I error and identify a potential consequence.
      3. Define a Type 2 error and identify a potential consequence.
      4. Which alpha level--.01, .05, or .10—will maximize the power of this test?
      5. The company proposes the station call 600 people rather than 400. How will this affect the power? Will this make the risk of a Type I/Type II higher or lower?
    3. Testing for Alzheimer’s disease can be a long and expensive process, consisting of lengthy tests and medical diagnosis. Recently, a group of researchers devised a 7 minute test to serve as a quick screen for the disease for use in the general population of senior citizens. A patient who tested positive would then go through the more expensive battery of tests and medical diagnosis. The authors reported a false positive rate of 4% and a false negative rate of 8%.
      1. Define a Type I error and identify a potential consequence.
      2. Define a Type 2 error and identify a potential consequence.
      3. What is the alpha level?
      4. Calculate the power of this test.

    UPCOMING TEST INFO:
    • We have a test coming up that covers all of chapters 19-21: confidence intervals and hypothesis tests!
    • Our test will either be on Thursday (3/16) or Monday (3/20)--we'll have to see what happens with all this snow!
    • Either way, start preparing now!
    • Here are some chapter 19-21 summary/review questions you can use if you'd like to start preparing:
      1. AP Statistics Test Review: Ch. 19,20, 21 (hw for night before test)Mr. Carofano plans to estimate the true percentage of EHHS underclassmen who plan to take AP Statistics. He takes a sample of 120 underclassmen, and 29 of them plan to take AP Statistics. Based on past data, it is believe that approximately 10% of underclassmen take AP Statistics.
        1. Verify that the conditions for inference are satisfied.
        2. Calculate the margin of error for this sample (98% confidence).
        3. Estimate the true percentage of underclassmen who plan to take AP Stat using a 98% confidence interval.
        4. Interpret the meaning of this interval.
        5. Explain the meaning of “98% confidence.”
        6. How can Mr. Carofano narrow the width of his interval? What would cause the interval to widen?
        7. Based on your interval, do you believe the percentage of underclassmen who plan to take AP Stat has risen?
        8. Is there significant evidence to suggest that the percentage of underclassmen taking AP Stat is rising? Conduct and appropriate test at the 5% level of significance. (hypotheses, conditions, math, conclusion).
        9. Explain the meaning of the p-value, in context.
        10. If the percentage of students in AP Statistics has risen, more sections of the course will be offered and another teacher will be hired. If not, there will only be 3 classes offered.
          1. Identify the meaning of a Type I and Type II error in context.
          2. Identify a consequence of each.
        11. The probability of a Type I error is 5%, and the probability of a Type II is 15%. Calculate the power.
        12. Explain the meaning of the power of this test, in context.
        13. If Mr. Carofano wants a margin of error of only 4%, what sample size should be used (at 98% confidence)?