Did you start yet? (the remix...added to this post Monday night)

Start your take home test yet? You don't want to have to sit home and do work all day on Wednesday...

Feel free to email with questions! See the post below for one hint..

In about 4 seconds I plan to start making our chapter 13 vocab quiz, which you'll have Friday. Then, you'll get this back Tuesday and we will have our vocab matching test on Wednesday--I also think I'll be adding some multiple choice questions from past AP exams to this test (so it'll be part MC, part vocab). In the meantime (Thursday, Friday, Tuesday) we'll wrap up our learning with experiments. Then, on Thursday and Friday, we'll do a little review/start probability.

As always, this plan is totally open to change, but that's my idea for now...

So, to recap:

• Chapter 13 Vocab Quiz Friday
• Unit Test on Wednesday (vocab matching and some multiple choice)

Need some extra stamps?

Check out the statistics rap songs linked to the right--the "Stat Rap" and the "Stat Rap (Remix)." As you listen, write down any lines (not just one word, write out the entire line of the rap) that reference or are related to statistical concepts we've learned thus far. For every 3 you write down, you'll get a stamp. You can do this to earn up to 10 extra stamps if you like!

Chapter 13 Vocab List (slightly narrowed down...):
Observational Study, Retro/Prospective Observational Study, Experiment, Random Assignment, Factor, Response, Level, Treatment, Principles of Experimental Design, Blocking, Statistically Significant, Control Group, Blinding, Single/Double Blind, Placebo, Confounding, Matching

And here's an email response I wrote to clarify the ideas behind blocking a little...
Blocking is similar to stratifying a sample. With blocking, we want to take our experimental units or participants, and split them into groups based on some characteristic that we know is related to what we're measuring. Let's consider an example...

Suppose you plan to do an experiment testing a new pill to prevent dogs from getting fleas. You have 200 dogs (and dog owners) who have volunteered to participate. One way to do the experiment would be to use a completely randomized design--that is, take the 500 dogs, give 100 the new pill, give 100 no pill, and then measure (over time) how many fleas each dog gets. Then, compare to see if the dogs who took the new pill had a statistically significantly lower number of fleas (if so, then the pill worked).

Now, let's consider a blocked design.

It might not be the best idea to just randomly assign 100 dogs the new pill. For instance, maybe the type of dog (the breed) also affects the number of fleas the dog gets. So, we can block by breed. This means we will first split up our 200 dogs into their breeds. Then, within each block, (or within each breed of dog), we randomly assign some of the breed to get the new pill, and some of the breed to get no pill. We then repeat this process for each block, or each breed.

Breed isn't the only variable that might be related to the amount of fleas a dog gets. Maybe we could instead block by the length of the dogs hair (maybe fleas like longer hair?). Similarly, if we blocked by hair length, we could split the dogs into three blocks--long, medium, and short hair. Then, within each block, we can randomly assign some dogs (some with long hair, for example) the new pill and some (with long hair) no pill. We'd then repeat for each block.

Think--what are some other variables we might block by? What characteristics of dogs might be related to the number of fleas a dog gets?

That's the idea--don't worry, we'll be doing some practice with blocking in class when we get back.

Take Home Test Question...

Here's a question/answer via a student email that you might find useful....

I have a question about part 3 (number 4) of the free response on the take home exam. Can you explain question a & b further?

This is a tough question to answer; I'm not sure how to be helpful without providing the answer itself...

Take a look at the table of sample statistics and population parameters we took in our (chapter 12) notes. If you can't find it, it's at the top of page 276. This table lists each of the options for statistics/parameters, as well as the symbols that represent each.

So, your answer to these questions will be either the "mean ____," or "standard deviation of ____," or the "correlation between ____ and ____," etc. Your job is to choose the appropriate type of "number" that is being calculated/estimated in this scenario. 

For the sample statistic, make sure you define what the sample is as well as what type of statistic is being used. For the population parameter, be sure to clearly define the population (and the parameter being used).

Good luck!

Happy Holidays!

It's winter break! Enjoy it! Rest up, relax, hang out with friends and family, and do a little studying :)

I appreciate all of the hard work you've all put in thus far. Keep it up and we'll be able to have some amazing test scores on the AP Exam! Let's all make it a goal to come back and work even harder, and to continue to improve (and of course, that includes me!)

This break, please complete the take home test provided (yesterday). If you lost yours or prefer it electronically, it's been uploaded under our classroom resources.

And, as always, feel free to email with any questions, any time. I'll post any questions/answers I receive/send on the blog for us all to benefit from.

Again, thanks for your hard work. Get an A on the take home test!

Thursday's HW....

Last textbook homework of the calendar year! (so you know I'm checking it....)

Tonight, please complete....
Page 315: 27b-d, 41, and 43a-g.

Enjoy! See you all tomorrow for one last day of work before a much deserved break!

And don't forget--take home test over break! It's a big deal!

It's......almost.....vacation.....

But not quite! Two more days of hard work on experiments!

Hopefully you're feeling confident about today's ch. 12 vocab quiz!

Tonight, please complete the following for homework: page 313: 3, 7, 9, 23 (for 3,7, and 9 only do b-e).

See you all tomorrow!

Early Dismissal!

More experiments tomorrow!

Tonight, make sure you study for you chapter 12 vocab quiz!

Period B--the homework problems I assigned will not be checked until Thursday; tonight, make sure you study, and then feel free to get a head start on those problems!

Tomorrow's Homework:

page 313: 3,7, 9, 23 (for 3,7,9 do b-e)

Enjoy the snow!

Monday HW....

Tonight, please complete the two AP problems provided in class...(2008#2 and 2004#2)/

Tomorrow I'll hand out some copies of the grading rubrics so we can see how we did! (Or, you can feel free to Google them on your own...)

Tomorrow (or Wednesday, whenever we're here...) we'll start our notes on experimental design (ch. 13)!
Other things to remember...

• Ch. 12 Vocab Test on Wednesday (includes words from ch. 11; 20 total words)
• After break we will have two tests on data collection
• First, we'll have a unit vocab test (matching), likely on either Friday 1/3 or Tuesday 1/7)
• Then, we'll have a unit multiple choice test (either Tuesday 1/7 or Wednesday 1/8).
• Also, don't forget--we have a take home test over break!

28 Point Grade for Homework?!

This weekend, please complete the 28 multiple choice questions provided in class. After you make an upside-down snowman...or do this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUb71CVWxYU

I've uploaded the 28 multiple choice questions under our classroom resources (as well as our chapter 12 powerpoint) in case you lost it or were absent. Please complete these for homework. Don't forget--this is a big grade!

Here's some help for your homework...

• When considering bias, remember...
• Voluntary Response Bias is always a concern when we have a voluntary response sample; and if we don't have a voluntary response sample, it's impossible to have voluntary response bias. So consider the sampling method to see if this is even a possible bias. Remember, any time we invite people to be surveyed, those with the strongest opinions are more likely to respond and are thus overrepresented.
• Non-Response Bias is when people are given the opportunity to be in a survey, but some do not respond, AND those who don't respond may have a different opinion. If I randomly select 100 people and hand out a lengthy survey, many people won't respond--this survey suffers from non-response bias. Sometimes I give a survey and many are not returned--I can't just hand out more surveys to fix this, as the original non-response bias still exists.
• Undercoverage, on the other hand, is not the fault of the respondents...this is when our survey design fails to cover part of the population. For instance, if I go to one lunch period and hand out a survey I will have overrepresented one of the grade levels at our school, and I have undercovered the other grade levels. This is different from non-response bias because some people weren't even given the opportunity to respond.
• 
  
• Response Bias is when any part of the survey design influences peoples' responses. This often shows up in the way a question is worded. For example, if I asked, "Considering that AP Statistics is the most applicable mathematics, do you think it should be taught to all students?" The beginning part of the question leads people to answer "Yes," and thus the answer "Yes" will be overrepresented. This suffers from response bias. A better question would ask, "Do you think Statistics should be taught to all students?
• The wording of the question is not the only way we can see response bias. Remember, it's anything in the design that affects a response. If I asked students, face to face, "Do you think I'm an effective teacher?" many people would be inclined to say yes (as they might feel bad or nervous saying no to me, even if they might believe I'm not effective). This design influences responses.

Feel free to email with more questions. I can post any questions I respond to via email on the blog for all of us to use for help.

Enjoy your weekend! Meet up with some friends and do your multiple choice together! See you all Monday for one more week of hard work before break!

Thursday!

Thanks for being so considerate today when I wasn't feeling well! I feel much better now (my migraine pills started to kick in F period)...

Tonight, please complete the two AP Problems provided in class for homework. (2013 and 2011).

We're moving pretty quickly through this unit and won't have as much time in class to practice...that means it's extra important that you work extra hard on your homework and put in the practice time outside of class! Make sure you try the problems, then look up the answers to see how you did (as we likely won't have much time to discuss these in class). Also, take a look to see what the AP graders are looking for...

Here is a link to the scoring guidelines for your AP problems:

http://apcentral.collegeboard.com/apc/members/exam/exam_information/8357.html

7 Classes Until Break...

Only 7? So that means we have to stay focused and work extra hard over the next 7 class days. Keep doing what you've been doing!

Tonight, please complete the following:  Page 290: 11,12,13,15,31
**For 11 and 12, just name the method of sampling: Census, SRS, Stratified, Cluster, or Systematic**

Also, don't forget we have a short quiz tomorrow (just like the homework from the past two nights). Study a little! This also gives me time to walk around and check your homework while you work on the quiz...

PS...I didn't end up using one of the problems 1-10 for your quiz. I made up something different...

Tuesday HW....

Tonight, more practice with sampling...

Page 289: 3, 7, 8

Enjoy your afternoon! See you all for more ch. 12 notes tomorrow! (We have to finish by Friday!!!!)

**Period F...sorry we accomplished nothing...hopefully we can catch up on our notes tomorrow :)

Monday HW!

Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook:
¢Page 289: 1, 5, 9

Here's some more help/clarification for tonight's homework...

1. Population: what's the whole group you're trying to generalize to?
2. Population Parameter of Interest: what number are you trying to estimate? A mean? A percentage? The average what? The percent of what?
3. The sampling frame: who are all the possible people we could've sampled?
4. The sample: who actually was surveyed?
5. The sampling method: how did they collect their sample? Was randomization used? 
6. Sources of bias: what might be some potential problems with this sample or with the way we collected this sample?

It's The Wknd!

Hopefully you all got an A on the quiz today! Great work this week--keep it up!

This weekend, here's your homework:

1. Chapter 12 Reading Quiz. Your answers don't necessarily need to be in complete sentences, but make sure they're thorough. You should be getting 100's on all these quizzes--these are key to boosting your grade. In case you lost the questions they're at the bottom of this post...

2. Chapter 11 Vocab Quiz on Monday. This is how we'll start class. There are 7 words (the 6 on page 265 + pseudorandom). Also, there are additional multiple choice questions--you're given a simulation scenario, and have to identify the component, outcome, trial, and/or response variable. Study!

Chapter 12 Reading Quiz Questions:

1.       Explain the relationship between a sample and a population. (p. 270)

2.       What does it mean for a sample to be biased? (p. 271)

3.       What is a census? What are three reasons it might not be the best possible type of sample? (all on p. 274)

4.       There are four types of samples described from page 276-279. Briefly describe each of these four types of samples.

·         Simple Random Sample:

·         Stratified Sample:

·         Cluster Sample:

·         Systematic Sample:

5.       There are two ways to “sample badly” described on page 282. Describe each of these types of sampling.

·         Voluntary Response Sample

·         Convenience Sample:

6.       Define each of the types of bias below (use the glossary on page 288).

·         Voluntary Response Bias:

·         Non Response Bias:

·         Response Bias:

Quiz Tomorrow! Study!

Study for tomorrow's quiz!

Period B--you're forced to study, because you have tonight's take home quiz to complete. A couple hints...

• In your simulation, it tells you numbers for each coupons; if you use these in your simulation and generate 2 digit numbers, you would just ignore numbers over 50. Make sure you say so in your procedure!
• It also says that coupons are given without replacement--this means that no numbers can repeat--again, make sure your procedure says so!
• Finally, the question does not ask you how many coupons it takes to equal or exceed $300 (this is what most of us initially thought). Instead, it's asking you for the distribution of the number of prize winners. That is, how are these prizes distributed? In other words, how many people (in all of your trials combined) won $50? How many won $100? How many won $200? 
• So, if I finish my three trials and awarded 9 total coupons, I want to find the percentages that were each amount. For instance, maybe 5 of the 9 coupons were for $50--that's about 55%. And if 0/9 are $100, that's 0%. The remaining 4 of the 9 awarded were $200, that's about 45%.

Periods E,F: Finish the multiple choice if you did not do so in class. Also, some of you (in period F) needed to finish the "coupon" problem we started in groups. Please do so!

Here are some practice problems for you to try for your quiz (if you like)...

• Suppose all students donate uniform items to EHHS when they graduate. 30% of students will donate 2 items, 50% of students will donate 3 items, and the rest will donate 4 items. Use a simulation to determine how many students will need to donate in order to collect 20 uniform items.
• Why is the simulation incorrect?
• Generate a number to represent hitting a baseball. Let all the odd numbers represent a homerun, and all the evens represent an out.

Humppppp dayyyy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCLO9OOMtqE

Great work on the quiz B and quiz C simulations everyone! Hopefully simulations are starting to make a little more sense; tomorrow we'll do some AP problems together, and then it's quiz time on Friday. After our (short) quiz, we'll move onto our next chapter.

Tonight's homework...

Period B: Please complete the driving test simulations on the worksheet provided in class.

Periods E: We ran out of time, so I'm not sure who has what papers...tonight, please write a procedure, simulate, and write a conclusion for whichever problem you did not do with your group.

Period F: Please finish the quiz B/quiz C worksheet--that is, do the simulation on the back (of the one you did in class).

See you all tomorrow! Keep up the good work!

Tuesday....

Period B--great work today! Hopefully the group stuff we did with simulations helped to make you more confident as we push toward our quiz. Toniight, please finish this worksheet we started--that is, write your conclusion, and then do all of Quiz B or C.

Periods E,F--tomorrow we'll get back to our exploration of simulations. You'll be doing some group work, and hopefully it'll help us better understand all this stuff....tonight, please complete the two simulations (on the worksheet) provided in class.

See you all tomorrow!

Simulations...

This stuff is tough...not only do you have to understand the material, but then you have to be able to express your thoughts (clearly) in writing...

Tonight, practice some simulations (I'm checking tomorrow):

Monday's Homework:
Page 266: 5, 7, 11, (5 trials), 13 (5 trials), 19 (5 trials)

*So the book asks for 20 trials--I'm asking for only 5!*