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Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Tuesday HW!

Tonight please complete the AP Multiple Choice practice provided in class (or below)!

Maybe I check this as homework, maybe I collect it and grade it....we'll see tomorrow...

  • Be sure to show work for 3 and 33
  • For both questions where you're asked for the interval--5 and the last question--use your graphing calculator to get the interval....
    • AND SHOW THE FORMULA for the interval!
If you were out today we did some classwork--you'll have that as extra homework tomorrow, or you can get the questions below!

Tomorrow we'll wrap up chapter 19; then it's vocab quiz (ch. 19) on Thursday and a short (15 min) math quiz Friday!

Here's the multiple choice homework for tonight:




And here's (most of) today's classwork questions:

AP Statistics Classwork: Estimating Population Proportions: Complete each of the problems in the space provided. Remember to answer each question thoroughly and show all work (where applicable)
1.      New research finds that 45 percent of undergraduate college students show no significant improvement in the areas of critical thinking and complex reasoning by the end of their sophomore year. The study, conducted by Richard Arum, sociology and education professor at New York University and Jospia Roksa, a sociology professor at the University of Virginia, tracked more than 2,300 college students at 24 universities from their freshman year in 2005 through their senior year.

a.)    Show that a one-proportion z-interval is appropriate. (3 points)

b.)    Estimate the proportion of college students nationwide that show no significant improvement in the areas of critical thinking and complex reasoning (by the end of their sophomore year). Use a 99% confidence level. (3 points)

c.)     Interpret your answer from part (a). (4 points)

d.)    Explain the meaning of “99% confidence.” (3 points) (SKIP)

e.)     A university spokesman refutes this study and claims that at least 52% of college students show significant improvement in critical thinking and complex reasoning. Based on your confidence interval calculated above, is it plausible that this spokesman is correct? Why or why not? (3 points)

f.)     A follow up study is planned; the designers must achieve a margin of error of (no more than) 2%. They plan to use the same (99%) level of confidence. These statisticians also anticipate that 50% of their sample will show significant improvement in critical thinking (and 50% will not). How large of a sample should be used? (3 points)

g.)    A local statistician plans to investigate the proportion of students who show significant improvement in critical thinking and complex reasoning specifically at Quinnipiac University. What is a conservative estimate for the margin of error (assume p-hat = 0.5) if a 95% confidence level and sample of 500 students are used? (3 points)

2.       A local statistician collected a sample and created a confidence interval to estimate the proportion of all EHHS students who plan to attend Mr. EHHS. The resulting 95% confidence interval was (34.5%, 48%).
a.        Find the sample statistic, p-hat, and the margin of error for this sample. (2 points) (BONUS)

b.      If the statisticians used 90% confidence what would happen to… (2 points)
                                                   i.      Margin of Error?

                                                 ii.      Width of the interval?

c.       If the statisticians increased the sample size, what would happen to… (2 points)
                                                   i.      Margin of Error?

                                                 ii.      Width of the interval?

Monday, February 27, 2017

Monday HW!

Back to the grind! This starts a loooong stretch of 5 day weeks for us--this will be a critical time in our preparation for the AP exam! Come to class each day prepared and eager to learn--be ready to put together a month and a half of hard work!

AP Forms and $ are due on Wednesday! Get those in!

Tonight please complete the following in your textbook:

Page 446: 7, 11d, 31, 33

Tomorrow in class we'll do some groupwork (AP FR and MC); then on Wednesday we'll finish up our notes and discuss the meaning of the confidence level itself! Then...

Thursday: Chapter 19 Vocab Quiz (then we'll start chapter 20)
Friday: Chapter 19 Math Quiz (then we'll continue chapter 20)





Friday, February 24, 2017

Weekend HW = Confidence Interval Practice!

AP Forms and $ are due on Wednesday (3/1)!

This weekend please complete the following in your textbook:

Page 447: 11ad, 13abd, 17, 23abc, 37
  • **Don't be lazy on this homework! We will be focusing on confidence intervals for the remainder of the year, so the more work you put in now the better prepared you'll be!
  • 11a: find the margin of error for 90% confidence...
  • 11d: now find the margin of error for 99% confidence....
  • 13a: "do the math"--show the formula and get your interval
  • 13b: interpret your interval, and for 13c use your interval to answer the question (like today's stamp)
  • 17a: check the conditions and do the math! Then use your interval to answer b (like today's stamp)
  • 23: a = conditions, b = math, c = interpret interval
  • 37: this is an interesting question; you want the confidence level, so you'll have to figure out what z* is, then use this to work back and find what the confidence level was
    • You know the margin of error (ME) = 2.5% or 0.025
    • Set this equal to "the part of the formula that represents ME"
    • Then, substitute p-hat, q-hat, and n, and solve this equation for z*
    • (All math!)
On Monday we'll get back into the mathematics/formula behind a confidence interval--see you there!

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Tonight, please complete the "Pop Quiz" worksheet provided in class! This just counts as homework for tonight, but it would've been a quiz--so these are some things I expect you to know how to do at this point!

**Also, please be sure to add (and answer) the following questions! If these are missing you will only earn half credit!**

6.) Create a 90% confidence interval using your graphing calculator. (Press STAT, go to TESTS, choose ONE PROP Z INT, then enter the x, n, and confidence level; then choose calculate). You should get (0.72924, 0.75076).

7.) Interpret the meaning of the 90% confidence interval (0.72924, 0.75076).


And here are the rest of the homework questions in case you lost yours:

Pop Quiz! Context and Confidence Intervals!
A Rutgers University study released in 2002 found that many high-school students cheat on tests. The researchers surveyed a random sample of 4500 high school students nationwide; 74% of them said they had cheated at least once.
1.       Identify the sample size and describe the sample from which we obtained our data. (2 points)

2.       Define the population of interest. (2 points)

3.       What is the population parameter of interest? That is, what (type of) value are you trying estimate (about the population)? (2 points)

4.       Identify each of the following: (3 points)
 p-hat = ___________                        q-hat = ___________                        x = ___________           


5.       Verify that the conditions for a one-proportion z-interval are satisfied. BE DETAILED in your explanations! (6 points)           

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Wed nes day HW!

Tonight please complete the following in your textbook:

Page 446: 3ab, 5, 9

  • For 3ab you need to do each of the following:
    • Check the conditions for a one proportion z-interval
      • We identify the sample and populatin within the 10% condition
    • Identify p-hat
    • Define what "p" represents

  • For 5, only one of these statements (a-e) is correct...
    • State which interpretation is correct
    • For the other four (incorrect statements) briefly explain why each is incorrect!
  • For 9 use the template from class today to interpret the interval

And don't forget...AP $ and forms are due by next Wednesday!

Friday, February 17, 2017

February Break = Midterm Exam Reflection!

First and foremost, enjoy your break! Rest up, relax, spend some time with friends and family, and DO YOUR TAKE HOME TEST!

When we come back (next Weds.) we'll be starting the best stuff in AP Stat--confidence intervals and hypothesis tests! We'll also be starting a long string of 5 day weeks (until April break), so come back recharged and ready to work!

This weekend please complete the "Midterm Exam Review" assignment provided in class (on Thursday)!

  • If you were absent Thursday and Friday you will need your actual midterm, so you will have to do this assignment when you return
  • If you have any questions about your answers feel free to send me a Remind message or email!
  • If you need any of the documents (the actual assignment, multiple choice hints, or FR rubric) you must email me and I'll send an attachment: carofano.fm@easthartford.org!
    • Losing your papers is not an acceptable reason to not turn this in Weds.!
  • You will lose points for any day this is late!
  • Remember, this test grade is entirely based on effort! The more effort you put in the better you prepare yourself for the AP exam, and the more likely it is you get a 100% on a test!
***Important: Be sure to read below.***
  • There is an error on question 2 of the multiple choice; the correct answer is B!
    • If you put "B" originally please be sure to send me an email/Remind or come see me on Monday--this likely would not change your midterm grade because the midterm was scored on a curve, not the raw score....
    • However, since I made a mistake, I think it is only fair to award you extra credit--I cannot change your midterm grade, but I will award 2 points EC on your final exam so that your final grade is "balanced out."
    • I am SOOOOO sorry for this error; I feel pretty bad about it...
    • Be honest!
Finally, if you did not fully complete your homework from Thursday night (p. 429: 15 and 41ac), you can do so over break and show me Wednesday:
  • 15: CHECK CONDITIONS and do the sampling distribution math (normalcdf and shaded model)
  • 41a: just normalcdf( and shaded model (not a sampling distribution question)
  • 41c: CHECK CONDITIONS and do the sampling distribution math (normalcdf and shaded model)



Thursday, February 16, 2017

Thursday HW/Vocab Quiz!

1.) Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook--CHECK the CONDITIONS and DO THE MATH! This will force you to do some vocab studying (conditions) and review the math for our classwork tomorrow!

Page 429:
  • 15
    • This question asks for the probability that the newspaper's sample will predict defeat--remember, for a vote (on the budget) to be defeated, the "percent of the sample" would have to be less than 50%!
    • Conditions then math!
  • 41ac 
    • Only one of these questions (a or c) requires you to use a sampling distribution! It's your job to decide which!
    • For the part that IS based on the sampling distribution for means check the conditions and do the math!
2.) Chapter 18 Vocab Quiz Tomorrow! Here's the vocab list:
  • 10% Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Randomization Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Success/Failure Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Large Enough Sample Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • 3 conditions for a sampling distribution for proportions
  • 3 conditions for a sampling distribution for means
  • Sampling Variability (aka sampling error)
  • Sampling Distribution
  • Sampling distribution for proportions = categorical data
  • Sampling distribution for means = quantitative data
  • Central Limit Theorem
  • Standard Error
  • Know how increasing/decreasing sample size affects standard error
  • Identify which question requires the use of a sampling distribution

3.) Get me my money!
  • Remember your AP Forms and $ are due March 1st!

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

When's Day HW!

2 more days of sampling distributions! Then we get to the realllll good stuff--confidence intervals next week!

Don't forget--your AP $ and form are due March 1st! 



Tonight please complete the following in your textbook:

Page 428:
  • 7a (find the standard deviation for the sampling distribution for proportions, label 3 standard deviations above/below p--check the example on page 415-416)
  • 11 (you already checked these conditions, so skip those; tonight, create the model with the 68/95/99.7 rule shown AND INTERPRET this rule in complete sentences--like we did today)
  • 23 (you already checked these conditions as well; label AND interpret the 68/95/99.7 rule like we did in class!)
  • 25cd (for 25d you will first create the sampling distribution model, then we have to do some Normal model math using this new sampling distribution standard deviation!)
And don't forget--we will have a chapter 18 vocab quiz on Friday! Here's the vocab list:
  • 10% Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Randomization Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Success/Failure Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Large Enough Sample Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • 3 conditions for a sampling distribution for proportions
  • 3 conditions for a sampling distribution for means
  • Sampling Variability (aka sampling error)
  • Sampling Distribution
  • Sampling distribution for proportions = categorical data
  • Sampling distribution for means = quantitative data
  • Central Limit Theorem
  • Standard Error
  • Know how increasing/decreasing sample size affects standard error
  • Identify which question requires the use of a sampling distribution
And if you'd like to play around with them more here are the links to the applets we looked at to explore sampling distributions in class!


Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Tuesday HW!

Get your AP forms and money in! Don't forget--these are due in about 2 weeks!

Tonight please complete the following in your textbook:

Page 428:

  • 9b (more conditions)
  • 19 (more conditions)
  • 9a (define model--shape, center spread)
  • 27
Tomorrow it's back to all this math!

Then on Thursday we'll do a little more practice, and we'll wrap up chapter 18 on Friday!

We will have a chapter 18 vocab quiz on Friday! Here's an initial vocab list:
  • 10% Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Randomization Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Success/Failure Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • Large Enough Sample Condition (know what it is why we check it)
  • 3 conditions for a sampling distribution for proportions
  • 3 conditions for a sampling distribution for means
  • Sampling Variability (aka sampling error)
  • Sampling Distribution
  • Sampling distribution for proportions = categorical data
  • Sampling distribution for means = quantitative data
  • Central Limit Theorem
  • Standard Error
  • Know how increasing/decreasing sample size affects standard error
  • Identify which question requires the use of a sampling distribution

Monday, February 13, 2017

Here's tonight's homework--checking conditions! 
    • Page 428:
      • Check the conditions: 7b, 11, 23 (conditions only!)
      • Normal Model Review: 25ab
      • Also do #1abd
        • For a,b...think! You got this!
        • For 1d we're asked why we can't use a Normal model here--that's because one of the 3 conditions for a sampling distribution for proportions fails....to answer 1d, state/show which of the 3 conditions fails
And here are the homework answers so you can check:

7b.) This is a sampling distribution for proportions. It is not stated if this is a random sample of 80 cars--proceed with caution. 80 cars is less than 10% of all cars on this major interstate highway. Finally (80)(0.7)>10 and (80)(0.3)>10.

11.) This is a sampling distribution for proportions. It is not stated if the freshman classes (of 400 students) will be selected randomly, proceed with caution. 400 college freshman is less than 10% of all college freshmen. Finally, (400)(0.74)>10 and (400)(1 - 0.74)>10.

23.) This is a sampling distribution for means. It is stated that students were randomly assigned to writing seminars (of size 25). It's also stated that the distribution was mound shaped and symmetric, but a sample size of 25 is also large enough. Finally, 25 students is likely less than 10% of all incoming freshmen at this school.

1d) A Normal model should not be used because np = (16)(0.5) = 8, which is not bigger than 10!

1ab) Think! You're on your own! (Or check the back of your book)

25a) 21.1%
25b) 276.8 days (or more)

Tomorrow it's back to sampling distributions--and finally some math! See you there! 

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Weds HW/Snow Day/Friday HW

Tonight (and/or on your likely snow today tomorrow) please complete the 6 multiple choice (review) questions provided in class or below! I may collect this and grade it as a quiz!

When we have our next class (probably Friday) we will get back into chapter 18, sampling distributions!
  • Much of this math will be based on the Normal model--so it's a great idea to review your chapter 6 notes about z scores, normalcdf, and invnorm!
    • 2 of these 6 homework MC are based on this chapter 6 stuff!
  • And if you'd like to get a head start, here is the weekend homework! I may add more to this...we'll see what happens in class....
    • Page 428:
      • Check the conditions: 7b, 11, 23 (conditions only!)
      • Normal Model Review: 25ab
      • Also do #1abd
        • For a,b...think! You got this!
        • For 1d we're asked why we can't use a Normal model here--that's because one of the 3 conditions for a sampling distribution for proportions fails....to answer 1d, state/show which of the 3 conditions fails
  •  You can also read chapter 18! The more you read on your own, the more "ahead" you'll be! 
  • Finally, here are some writing templates on the conditions if you're trying to start your homework:
    • Randomization: we can only know if a sample is random if this information is given to us in the context! If not, we'll have to assume we have a random sample or random assignment or representative data. Try to use one of the sentences below...
      • "It is stated that our sample of _____ was collected randomly."
      • "It is stated that our sample of _____ is a representative sample."
      • Or, look for random assignment...
      • If neither of those apply....
        • "We can assume our sample of _____ is a random/representative sample."
    • 10% Condition: here we have to check that our sample (size) is less than 10% of the population size! We might not know the size of the population, so we might also have to "assume" for this condition
      • "Our sample of ______ is less than 10% of all _____ (define the population, in context)."
      • "We can assume that our sample of ______ is less than 10% of all ______."
    • Remember, the third condition differs depending on the type of data...
      • Quantitative Data = means = sampling distribution for means (23)
        • Large Enough Sample:
          • "Our sample of _______ is large enough." (We want a sample of at least 25)
          • OR...
          • "It stated that the distribution of _____ is unimodal and symmetric (approximately Normal)."
      • Categorical data = %'s = proportions = sampling distribution for proportions (7b and 11)
        • Success/Failure Condition:
          • np > 10
          • nq > 10
          • Do the math!
          • p represents the % that we are given in the question
          • q = 1 - p; so if p = 70% or 0.7, then q = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3
          • And remember, n is our sample size


And here are those MC for tonight's (Wednesday's) HW:





Monday, February 6, 2017

Test Weds./Take Home Test Due Weds!

TEST TOMORROW! Tonight, study, study, study!

Here's a breakdown of the test (tomorrow):
  • Part 1: 20 matching vocab based on the list below (use the quiz that was passed back today to study!)
    • Factor
    • Level
    • Treatment
    • Response Variable
    • Confounded/Confounding Variable
    • Blinding (single/double blind)
    • Placebo
    • Blocking
    • Control
    • Simulation
    • Bias
    • Response Bias
    • Undercoverage
    • Non-Response Bias
    • Voluntary Response Bias
    • Simple Random Sample
    • Stratified Random Sample
    • Cluster Sample
    • Census
    • Systematic Random Sample
    • Voluntary Response Sample
    • Convenience Sample
  • Part 2: 6 multiple choice
  • Part 3: 3 short answer questions
    • Identify factors, levels, treatments, response variable, and if a study is single/double blind
    • Determine if a study is an experiment or observational study (remember, to be an experiment, there must be random assignment of treatments--that's all you have to look for!)
    • Identify/name a sampling method given a description
Tomorrow: TAKE HOME TEST DUE! 

The following questions from your take home test relate to what is on your in-class test, so use these to study for the in-class portion:
  • MC: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
  • FR: 1, 2, 3b, 4
Here are two AP free response questions/rubrics you can use for more practice/review!
And lastly here are the answers to the take home quiz--the 19 multiple choice questions you completed this weekend--check your answers and use this to study as well:

  1. B
  2. B
  3. B
  4. B
  5. E
  6. B
  7. A
  8. A
  9. A
  10. B
  11. E
  12. C
  13. D
  14. E
  15. B
  16. D
  17. D
  18. D
  19. B





Friday, February 3, 2017

Weekend HW/Next Week!

This weekend please complete the 19 multiple choice question take home quiz provided in class (or under the classroom powerpoints and assignments link on the right)!

This is your second quiz grade of the quarter--get an A! NO PAPERS WILL BE ACCEPTED  AFTER MONDAY BECAUSE THE ANSWERS WILL BE POSTED ON THE BLOG!

If you're feeling ambitious you also got a copy of the take home test that is due next Wednesday! It's up to you if you want to start that now...

Here's what's happening next week...

  • Monday: discuss blocking, confounding variables, and clear up any other experimental design questions!
  • Tuesday: TEST! (If we have a snow day you will have your test whenever we're back)
    • The test includes the following...
      • 20 matching vocab based on the list below
        • Factor
        • Level
        • Treatment
        • Response Variable
        • Confounded/Confounding Variable
        • Blinding (single/double blind)
        • Placebo
        • Blocking
        • Control
        • Simulation
        • Bias
        • Response Bias
        • Undercoverage
        • Non-Response Bias
        • Voluntary Response Bias
        • Simple Random Sample
        • Stratified Random Sample
        • Cluster Sample
        • Census
        • Systematic Random Sample
        • Voluntary Response Sample
        • Convenience Sample
      • 6 multiple choice
      • 3-5 short answer
        • Identify factors, levels, treatments, response variable, and if a study is single/double blind
        • Determine if a study is an experiment or observational study
        • Identify/name a sampling method given a description
  • Wednesday: TAKE HOME TEST DUE!
    • Do the following questions from your take home test BEFORE the test in class Tuesday--these will help you to prepare for the in-class test!
      • MC: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
      • FR: 1, 2, 3b, 4
And then, finally, after the test Tuesday, it's back to math next Wednesday!

Finally, don't forget your AP $ and form are due March 1st!



Have a great weekend! Go Falcons!


Thursday, February 2, 2017

Thursday HW

Tonight please finish your chapter 13 questions using your textbook!


This weekend we will have a 19 question multiple choice take home quiz based on our reading over the past few nights--so read carefully and take lots of detailed notes! (many of you got this today).


Tomorrow in class we'll look at some stuff with blocking and confounding variables (if time permits)--see you there!


Most of the answers in your chapter 13 questions are pulled directly from the book, so you should know if they're correct--however, a few do have "correct answers" that you'd need to check (thanks for pointing that out Amber!)....
  • The answers to all of the "just checking" questions are after the homework problems at the end of chapter 13
  • 8.) Stratifying a sample is the same idea as blocking an experiment
  • 18.) Factors = fertilizer and water
    • 3 Levels for fertilizer = full dose, 1/2 dose, no dose
    • 2 levels for H20 = water, no water
    • 6 treatments: full does and water, full dose no water; half dose and water, half dose no water; no dose and water, no dose and no water







Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Wednesday HW!

Tonight you'll be reading/learning more about experiments!


Tomorrow in class we'll start with a "bias" stamp, then we'll get into the experimental design stuff! The plan is to cover experimental design (quickly) and finish on Monday, with a test on Tuesday!


The test Tuesday will be half vocab and half AP problems; it will cover sampling methods and experiments!


Until then, tonight please answer the following questions in your "Chapter 13 Project: Teaching Yourself Experiments and Observational Studies" (Feel free to record these answers as an outline in your notes if you like, or on the handout provided):


4, 5, 6, 7, 17, 18


And of course tomorrow you'll have to finish the rest--feel free to do those as well!


11, 12, 13, 14, 15


Have an awesome Wednesday! See you tomorrow!