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Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Wednesday HW!

**All Methods of Data Collection makeup work (quizzes, tests, homework, etc.) must be completed/made up by the end of the day Monday or you will earn a 0. Check PowerSchool to see if this applies to you! Please come talk to me about any issues and about when you can make up quizzes/tests!**

Today was the first day of the rest of AP Stat! The conditions we discussed today will show up in every chapter for the remainder of our course--and Statistical Inference makes up 40% of the AP exam! Today is a fresh start for us all--take advantage of that! Be focused, do your homework, come to class ready to work hard and learn, and stay positive!

Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook--you should check the conditions for these contexts and name the appropriate sampling distribution!

Page 428: 7b, 11, 23, 35
  • I would recommend reading the "Assumptions and Conditions" sections on pages 413 and 422 before you do your homework (this will give you more info about the conditions and why we check them)
  • For 23 just check the conditions--ignore the 68/95/99.7 rule (for now)
  • For 35 ignore questions a, b, c -- I want you to check that the conditions are met (and name the appropriate sampling distribution)!
Use the writing templates below to help when checking your conditions:
  • Random Sample: our sample should be collected randomly, or treatments should be assigned at random
    • If it's stated that the sample was collected randomly...
      • "The sample of __(define sample in context)_____ was collected randomly." 
    • If it's not stated that the sample was collected randomly...
      • "We can assume our sample of ____(define sample in context)___ was collected randomly."
  • 10% Condition: sample size must be less than 10% of population size
    • "Our sample of ___(sample in context)___ is (likely) less than 10% of ___(population in context)____."
  • Sampling Distribution For Means: Large Enough Sample Condition
    • "Our sample of ___(define sample in context)____ is large enough."
  • Sampling Distribution for Proportions: Success/Failure Condition
    • No writing here, this is a math one--check that np>10 and n(1-p)>10
    • Subsitute the numbers--don't just write np>10 and n(1-p)>10!
Tomorrow we'll explore what a sampling distribution actually is, and then we'll start to get into some math over the next few days--see you there!

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Test Tomorrow: Methods of Data Collection (Round 2)

**If you were absent today you MUST make up the Unit 3 Exam tomorrow! If you cannot do so during a study hall or after school you will have to complete the test in class (and miss our "new stuff")! Please send me an email or Remind message to set up a plan!**


Tonight, study, study, study! Tomorrow we will start class with 15 more minutes of our Unit 3 Exam:

  • Matching Vocab Section (14 terms to match to the given definitions)
    • You should take 9 or 10 minutes on this part (know your stuff!)
    • Here's some vocab to know:
      • 4 Methods of Data Collection (Simulation, Survey, Experiment, Observational Study--look at Friday's notes)
      • Sampling Methods (SRS, Stratified, Cluster, Systematic, Census, Voluntary Response, Convenience)
      • Bias and Types of Bias (general definition, know how to define each type)
      • Experimental Design Vocab (factor, levels, response variable, blinding, placebo, control, blocking, replication)
  • 3 (more) AP Multiple Choice (5-6 minutes)
    • Determine if a study is an experiment, blocked experiment, or observational study (like the "flowers" multiple choice from our recent stamp--the paper has 3 MC questions on it and was graded with an orange colored pencil)
    • Determine a sampling method for a given context
    • Determine the most noticeable type of bias for a given context (like Monday's stamp MC)
After tomorrow's test (15 minutes) we'll start chapter 18! And I CAN'T WAIT (click me)

If you'd like to get yourself prepared for our next unit it would be a good idea to review the Normal model (chapter 6)--68/95/99.7 rule, normalcdf and invnorm problems, and z-scores! See you there!

Monday, January 29, 2018

Test Tomorrow: Methods of Data Collection

Tonight, study, study, study! Tomorrow we will take our "Methods of Data Collection Exam" in class! Then it's time to get back to some math and start a new unit on Wednesday!

Also, remember that your Methods of Data Collection take home exam is due tomorrow!

  • See the blog post from Friday (below) for more details or if you need a copy
Here's an outline of tomorrow's test:
  • Part 1 = Matching Vocab (14 terms)
    • Be sure to know the definition of simulation (Friday's notes)
    • Otherwise, all vocab terms are on your chapter 12 and chapter 13 vocab quizzes!
    • Be sure to know....
      • Sampling Methods
      • Types of Bias
      • General definition of bias
      • Factors/Levels/Treatments/Response variable
      • Blinding
      • Methods of Data Collection (Friday's notes)
      • Sampling Variability (aka Sampling Error)
  • Part 2 = AP MC (9 questions)
  • Part 3 = AP FR (3 contexts, 7 total questions)
  • Some things to know....
    • Write a procedure for a cluster sample, stratified sample, or SRS
    • Know how to identify an appropriate variable to stratify (or block) by and explain why
    • Identify the "pieces" for an experiment (like today's stamp)
    • Identify a sampling method used for a given context
    • Identify the most noticeable type of bias for a given context
    • Identify sample, population for a context
    • Determine what method of data collection was used in a study (and explain your reasoning)


Friday, January 26, 2018

Tests, Tests, Tests!

**If you were absent today you will start class on Monday with your chapter 12 vocab quiz! Check yesterday's blog post for the list! Use your notes and/or the glossary at the end of chapter 12 to study! Be ready--no excuses!**

This weekend you should complete your "Methods of Data Collection" take home test (provided in class today or below)!
  • Get this done! If you turn this in on Monday you will receive +3 extra credit points on the test!
  • It might be annoying/inconvenient to look at the images below for the take home test--if you'd like the word document just send me an email and I'll reply with the attachment (carofano.fm@easthartford.org).
  • This is a great way to start studying this weekend (for Tuesday's test)--get this done, then do more studying Monday night!
On Monday in class we will do some more work with bias--we'll start with a warmup dealing with experimental design (for a lil' review), then we'll work through some free response questions dealing with bias (and look at the rubrics).

Then on Tuesday it's our Methods of Data Collection test! I'll be here after school if you'd like to come by with questions (or to do some practice/review)!

Here's a general outline of what will be on Tuesday's test:
  • Vocabulary matching section (14 terms--use your chapter 12 and 13 quizzes to review)
  • AP Multiple Choice (9 questions)
  • AP Free Response (3 questions/contexts with 7 total parts)
  • Some test topics:
    • Be sure you know how to write a procedure for a simple random sample, cluster sample, and stratified sample!!
      • Look over the 2011 "apartments" free response we had for homework!
    • Be able to identify flaws in a sampling method (describing bias)
    • Know how to design/critique an experimental design
      • Don't forget about blocking!
      • Identify factors, levels, treatments, response variable
    • Determine what method of data collection was used in a study (simulation, survey, experiment, observational study) and explain why
    • Identify a sampling method given a context
    • Identify the "most noticeable bias" for a given context
    • Identify a population that we can generalize to from a sample
      • Identify a sample, population, sampling frame for a given context
And here is the take home test (or email me for the word document: carofano.fm@easthartford.org):









Thursday, January 25, 2018

Ch. 12 Vocab Quiz Tomorrow!

Tonight STUDY, STUDY, STUDY! Come ready to ace your chapter 12 vocab quiz! After the quiz we'll do some AP free response practice with "writing about bias." See you there!

Here's the chapter 12 vocab list:
  • Know your methods of sampling!
    • Simple Random Sample (SRS)
    • Stratified Random Sample
    • Cluster Random Sample
    • Systematic Random Sample
    • Census
    • Convenience Sample
    • Voluntary Response Sample
  • Know about bias and types of bias!
    • Bias (general definition)
    • Voluntary Response Bias
    • Undercoverage
    • Response Bias
    • Non-response Bias
  • Other vocab:
    • Sample
    • Sampling Frame
    • Population
    • Sampling Variability
    • Population Parameter
    • Sample Statistic 
If you'd like some more practice with bias, AND to get a head start on your weekend homework, do some (or all) of these book problems below!

Weekend Homework = UNIT TAKE HOME TEST!

  • This will be provided tomorrow in class. 
  • Sorry, changed my mind about weekend homework...
  • If you already did the book problems listed please see me and we'll discuss some extra credit.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Weds HW and Upcoming Quizzes!

Tomorrow we will start class with another short quiz--it will look very similar to the "Fenway Park Pop Quiz" homework we had last week!

**If you were absent today be sure to look at the homework and use these examples to practice; you're taking the quiz tomorrow!**

Tonight, please complete the "Ch. 12: Sampling HW" provided in class (or below). Use the answer key below to check your responses and use this to study for tomorrow! 

Additionally, we will have our chapter 12 vocabulary quiz to start class on Friday! Busy week--this is the tone we're setting for the 3rd quarter, we have to be on top of our game and ready to earn an A every day!


Tonight's (Wednesday) HW:


And here's a key to the "Pop Quiz" homework from Thursday night, which covered the same concepts--our quiz tomorrow is a different version of this!



Finally, here are the homework answers so you can use tonight's homework to review/study for tomorrow's quiz to start class:

  • 1.) Suppose East Hartford....
    • Population: all residents of East Hartford
    • Parameter of Interest: proportion/% of all EH residents who believe the school should start a field hockey team
    • Sampling Frame: any person (hopefully EH resident) who visits the district website
    • Sample: all EH residents who voted on the poll
    • Sampling Method: voluntary response sample
  • 2.) The U.S. Department of Education...
    • Population: all high school seniors in the U.S.
    • Parameter of Interest: mean/average number of colleges/universities applied to (per student) for all high school seniors in the U.S
    • Sampling Frame: all high school seniors in the U.S.
    • Sample: the 3,481 high school seniors who were randomly selected
    • Sampling Method: stratified sample (selected some seniors from each state)
  • 3.) Connecticut state police....
    • Population: all cars/drivers in CT
    • Parameter of Interest: proportion/% of all EH cars/drivers in CT who have a problem with one of these requirements
    • Sampling Frame: any person/car that drives by/through this roadblock
    • Sample: any cars/drivers that were stopped at this roadblock
    • Sampling Method: convenience sample
  • 4.) Determine statistic or parameter and correct symbol....
    • a.) Parameter: "mu"
    • b.) Statistic: "p-hat"
    • c.) Statistic: "x-bar"
    • d.) Statistic: "Sx"
    • e.) Parameter (no symbol)
    • f.) Statistic (no symbol)
    • g.) Parameter: "p"
    • h.) Parameter: "sigma"

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Two's Day HW

**If you were absent today you will start class with a "pop quiz" tomorrow--be sure you know how to identify sampling methods!**

Tonight please complete all of the 2011 free response and part A of the 2014 free response provided in class (or below).

  • We need to learn a little more about bias before we can fully respond to part B of the 2011 question, but of course you can give it a shot!
  • We will discuss ("go over") some of this stuff in class tomorrow, so be ready!
    • These are great representations of how we might see sampling methods used in free response questions on the exam!
    • Put in max effort and come ready to discuss these more tomorrow!
  • If you would like to score your free response and/or see some sample answers use the links below:




Here's tomorrow night's homework if you'd like to get a head start:


And here's a key to the "Pop Quiz" homework from Thursday night, which covered the same concepts:


Monday, January 22, 2018

Monday HW!

Tonight's homework = practice with identifying sampling methods, samples, populations, sampling frames, etc.

  • Tonight please complete the following questions in the "Chapter 12 MC" packet provided in class:
    • 1-3; 5-13; 15; 20-22; 24
    • We will quickly go over these answers with the random name generator tomorrow in class, so be ready!
    • We will also start class tomorrow with a quick quiz dealing with sampling methods, so by doing your homework you are studying for that quiz!
    • About the other questions:
    • Questions 14, 16-19, and 25 deal with bias--we will discuss these ideas later this week.
      • Feel free to investigate these answers independently if you'd like to get ahead!
    • Question 4 is a "bad question...."
      • A population parameter (of interest) is the value that we are trying to estimate based on our sample data
        • For this context, we are trying to estimate the proportion (%) of all subscribers who believe the magazine is helpful in their daily lives
      • We tried to do a census (mailed a survey to all subscribers), but not all responded--so we have a sample...
        • A sample statistic is a number that summarizes a sample--for our sample 78% of those who responded said the magazine was helpful, so this 78% is a sample statistic...
        • Which means there is really no correct answer
      • If all subscribers had responded to the survey then the 78% would be the proportion of the population (all subscribers) who find the magazine helpful, and would be the population parameter of interest
        • But again, we see "of those who responded," which implies the entire population did not respond, so the 78% is the proportion/% of our sample of subscribers who say the magazine is helpful, and is thus a sample statistic
Tomorrow we'll wrap up our discussion about sampling methods (after our quiz), then we'll start to examine the difference between sample statistics and population parameters.

Here's tomorrow night's homework if you'd like to get a head start:


And here's a key to the "Pop Quiz" homework from Thursday night, which covered the same concepts:






Friday, January 19, 2018

Weekend HW!

This weekend please complete the "Chapter 12 Homework: Identifying Sampling Methods" worksheet provided in class (or below).
  • Answers are posted in green below--check!
    • On Monday/Tuesday in class we will continue to discuss sampling, sampling methods, and examine population parameters vs. sample statistics
  • The seven sampling methods we saw today are seven new vocab words for chapter 12!
  • This homework assignment extends our learning from today's classwork...
    • Use the notes/definitions provided in today's investigation to help with your homework.
  • See below for an example of a procedure for each sampling method using a different context (you'll get a paper copy of this on Monday).



Here are some examples of procedures for each sampling method using a different context:

Simple Random Sample:
Context: The town of East Hartford is interested in surveying its adult (age 18+) residents about various topics.  You have been hired to choose a sample of 500 East Hartford residents to be surveyed.
Example:
1.      Number each EH adult resident from 1 to _____.
2.      Use a random number generator to generate 500 numbers between 1 and____, ignoring repeated numbers.
3.      Survey the 500 adult EH residents whose numbers were randomly selected.

Census
Context: The town of East Hartford is interested in surveying its adult (age 18+) residents about various topics.  You have been hired to choose a sample of 500 East Hartford residents to be surveyed.
Example: Mail each adult resident (age 18+) in the town of East Hartford a survey asking questions about the desired topics, and ask each person to complete the survey questions and return the form. You may also provide a link to an online version of the survey for people to complete.
For those residents who do not complete the survey (by mail or online), follow up with a phone call. For those who still do not respond, send a town official door-to-door to collect survey responses from the remaining adult EH residents.

Stratified Random Sample
Context: The town of East Hartford is interested in surveying its adult (age 18+) residents about various topics.  You have been hired to choose a sample of 500 East Hartford residents to be surveyed.
Example: You believe that people’s responses to these questions may differ by age group; therefore, you first separate all EH residents into groups based on age (stratify).
1.      First, you create (5) groups of residents ages 18-30, 31-45, 46-60, 60-75, and 75+. (This means we stratified by age group).
2.      Next, we use a random number generator to randomly generate the social security numbers of 100 residents within the 18-24 age group. Ignore any repeated numbers.
3.      We then survey these randomly selected residents by mail (also providing a link to an online survey), then by phone (if they do not respond initially).
4.      Repeat this process for each age group, randomly generating social security numbers (ignoring repeats) to select a random sample from each strata.
*Note: with a stratified sampling method we do not always want to sample the same number from each strata; instead, we want to sample in proportion to our population
·         For example, if 50% of the adult residents in EH were ages 46-60, we would want 50% of our sample to be taken from this age group…
·         We will discuss this more moving forward.
           

Cluster Random Sample
Context: The town of East Hartford is interested in surveying its adult (age 18+) residents about various topics.  You have been hired to choose a sample of 500 East Hartford residents to be surveyed.
Context: The town of East Hartford is interested in surveying its adult (age 18+) residents about various topics.  You have been hired to choose a sample of 500 East Hartford residents to be surveyed.
Example:
1.      First, separate the town into groups (clusters) by elementary school district. (each school district = 1 cluster)
2.      Next, number each school district from 1-8.
3.      Use a random number generator to randomly select two numbers from 1-8, ignoring repeats.
4.      Survey all of the adult residents (age 18+) within those two randomly selected districts.

Systematic Random Sample
Context: The town of East Hartford is interested in surveying its adult (age 18+) residents about various topics.  You have been hired to choose a sample of 500 East Hartford residents to be surveyed.
Example:
1.      Obtain a list of the names of all adult EH residents. List each resident in alphabetical order, by last name.
2.      Number each person on the list from 1 - ___.
3.      Generate a random number to represent your starting point. Survey the resident with that number.
4.      Now, survey every 10th person on this list starting from the random number generated above.

Voluntary Response Sample
Context: The town of East Hartford is interested in surveying its adult (age 18+) residents about various topics.  You have been hired to choose a sample of 500 East Hartford residents to be surveyed.
Example:
1.      Create an online survey (poll) and post it on the town’s website and each of the school websites.
2.      Mail a letter to each household to make all residents aware that the survey has been posted.
3.      Collect responses (data) from anyone who chooses to go online and complete the survey.

Convenience Sample
Context: The town of East Hartford is interested in surveying its adult (age 18+) residents about various topics.  You have been hired to choose a sample of 500 East Hartford residents to be surveyed.
Example:
1.      Have multiple town officials go to various neighborhoods throughout East Hartford with copies of the survey.
2.      Have these officials administer the survey to any residents who are available or passing by.
OR
1.      The people conducting the study provide the survey to their friends and family and ask them to complete it.
2.      To obtain more data, they stand outside the town hall and/or public library and hand out surveys to those passing by.

And here are the homework answers so you can check:

11a.) Voluntary Response Sample
11b.) Cluster sample
11c.) (Attempted) Census
11d.) Stratified Survey
11e.) SRS (Simple Random Sample)

12a.) Convenience OR Voluntary Response Sample
12b.) Voluntary Response Sample
12c.) Cluster Sample (Maybe stratified by elementary school, then cluster choosing class = multistage)
12d.) Systematic Sample
12e.) Stratified Sample

13a.) Used a combination of stratifying and cluster; first separated into groups (churches) and randomly selected 3 churches (this is a cluster approach), but then selected 100 people from each of these selected churches (stratified approach)--we call this a multi-stage sample
13b.) The 100 members chosen from the 3 randomly selected churches may not be representative of all Catholic church members in this city. 

15a.) Systematic Sample
15b.) This sampple is not likely to be representative of how patrons feel about this ride because every person sampled is in line for this ride, and thus they likely have different opinions about having to wait in line than people who are not riding this ride. This sample is biased, as people willing to wait in line may be overrepresented.

27a.) Simple Random Sample:
  • Number the transactions from 1-120.
  • Use a random number generator to generate 10 numbers between 1 and 120.
  • The supervisor then re-checks the 10 payments with the numbers that were randomly generated.
27b.) I would stratify (by type of sale, wholesale/retail).
  • Number the wholesale sales from 1-36.
  • Use a random number generator to generate 3 numbers in this range and then re-check these 3 transaction.
    • *We choose 3 because we are told 30% of the overall sales are wholesale, so we want 30%, or 3 out of 10, of the sales in our sample to be wholesale so that our sample best represents our population
  • Number the retail sales from 1-84.
  • Use a random number generator to generate 7 numbers in this range and re-check these 7 retail transactions.


Also, don't forget to reflect and complete the extra credit assignment below--due Monday! 

Extra Credit Homework Assignment: Midterm Exam Reflection Questions:

  • These questions can be completed and turned in Monday for EXTRA CREDIT (homework and 2 or 3 stamps). 
  • You must write the question OR write the heading bulleted below each question
    • No question/heading written, no extra credit
  • This will be scored based on you showing real, thoughtful reflection--lazy, quick, one word answers for questions 3-8 will not earn extra credit! Take some time to truly reflect on your exam and on your first semester!
  • Examine your score, the histogram, and summary statistics below to answer each question:

1. Record your projected AP score and your raw score below. (You will have to read the information on the blog to determine these).
  • Projected AP Score:________              Raw Score:_______%

2. Calculate the z-score for your raw score using the data above. Show your work below.
  •  z = ___

3. What are your initial reactions to your individual exam score? Record at least three thoughts in the space below.
  •  Initial Reactions: Individual Score

4. Examine the data above; what are two positive things that stand out to you about our overall midterm exam performance?
  • 2 Positives: Overall Performance


5. What is something that stands out as an area (or two) for improvement for our overall performance (as a whole group)?
  • Area to Improve: Overall Performance


6. What are two things you have done well individually in preparing for success in AP Stat over the course of the first semester?
  •  Individual Preparation: 2 Successes

7. What are two things you can improve upon (moving forward) to put yourself in the best position to succeed on the AP exam in May?
  • Individual Preparation: Areas to Improve

8. What are two things you learned from the midterm exam that will help you to better prepare for the AP exam (May 17)?
  • Midterm to AP Exam: Takeaways









Thursday, January 18, 2018

Thursday HW and Stuff

Tonight please complete the "Pop Quiz: Sample Surveys" worksheet provided in class (or below). (It's not really a pop quiz).

  • We will have a quiz that looks very much like this to start class one day next week--this is a practice version of that quiz!
  • Here is the homework in case you lost yours or were out:


Midterm grades are in! Here's everything you need to know about the midterm scoring:

To score the midterm I first calculated each raw score (%); the multiple choice section had 28 questions for 28 points and counted as 50% of the overall grade. The free response section consisted of 5 questions worth a total of 20 points, and also counted as 50% of the overall grade.

I then used past AP exam "cut scores" to establish the cutoff values for a score of 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 (see below)--in other words, I figured out which raw scores (%'s) corresponded to which AP scores. Next, I listed each score from greatest to least, and separated the scores (5's, 4's, 3's, etc.)--a projected score of 5 translates to an A, a projected 4 to a B, a projected 3 to a C, a projected 2 to a D, and a projected 1 to an F. Finally, within each AP score/letter grade, I determined a numerical grade equivalent as shown in the chart below.

Students typically performed better on the multiple choice section; overall, we did pretty well with the multiple choice, but definitely will have to make a conscious effort to improve our writing and written communication for the free response section.

The midterm exam will hopefully prove itself to be a valuable learning experience that will help us better prepare for the AP exam; overall, 40/78, or 51.2% percent of students projected to earn a qualifying score (3 or above) on the AP exam.

I will hold on sharing my thoughts, as for homework on Thursday night you will be asked to complete a reflection on the midterm exam. After you develop your own thoughts we will discuss the midterm in more depth on Monday, 1/22.

Here is our midterm exam summary data:

You can use the chart below to determine your raw score from the grade entered in PowerSchool.




Extra Credit Homework Assignment: Midterm Exam Reflection Questions

  • These questions can be completed and turned in Monday for EXTRA CREDIT (homework and 2 or 3 stamps). 
  • You must write the question OR write the heading bulleted below each question
    • No question/heading written, no extra credit
  • This will be scored based on you showing real, thoughtful reflection--lazy, quick, one word answers for questions 3-8 will not earn extra credit! Take some time to truly reflect on your exam and on your first semester!

1. Record your projected AP score and your raw score below. (You will have to read the information on the blog to determine these).
  • Projected AP Score:________              Raw Score:_______%

2. Calculate the z-score for your raw score using the data above. Show your work below.
  •  z = ___

3. What are your initial reactions to your individual exam score? Record at least three thoughts in the space below.
  •  Initial Reactions: Individual Score

4. Examine the data above; what are two positive things that stand out to you about our overall midterm exam performance?
  • 2 Positives: Overall Performance


5. What is something that stands out as an area (or two) for improvement for our overall performance (as a whole group)?
  • Area to Improve: Overall Performance


6. What are two things you have done well individually in preparing for success in AP Stat over the course of the first semester?
  •  Individual Preparation: 2 Successes

7. What are two things you can improve upon (moving forward) to put yourself in the best position to succeed on the AP exam in May?
  • Individual Preparation: Areas to Improve

8. What are two things you learned from the midterm exam that will help you to better prepare for the AP exam (May 17)?
  • Midterm to AP Exam: Takeaways