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Thursday, May 31, 2018

Stamps, Books Due!

ALL stamps (red thumbs up) are due TOMORROW! Get those together!
  • You know the deal...count them up, write the total on the front, get them all together.
  • Get these in! Count them up, record the total, and bring them in tomorrow
  • This is a classwork grade!

LAST HOMEWORK GRADE = Bring back your textbook (and a calculator if you borrowed one) by TOMORROW!



Some students still have yet to make up our last test--I know this is also partially due to my absences. If you need to complete our last test (32 MC) please see me to discuss a plan! You must make this up by the end of the day Wednesday!
  • See the blog post(s) below for the review packet
  • Test = 32 multiple choice

See you all tomorrow! Seniors--tomorrow is your last "regular Friday" of high school! Enjoy it! Reflect, reminisce, and appreciate this whole experience as you move toward the end of one chapter and into the start of another!

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

3 Day Wknd, Stamps, Textbooks, Last Test

Have an amazing 3 day weekend! Come back refreshed and ready to finish the year strong! Be sure to have your stamps counted and ready for the start of class Tuesday!
  • Period A: We'll start 21!
  • Period D: We'll wrap up our discussion of Blackjack/card counting on Tuesday and start the movie 21!
  • Period E: We'll start class Tuesday with some notes on Blackjack/card counting and then start the movie at the end of class or on Weds.
  • Period H: We'll wrap up our discussion of Blackjack/card counting on Tuesday and start the movie 21!
ALL stamps (red thumbs up) are due TUESDAY! Get those together!
  • You know the deal...count them up, write the total on the front, get them all together.
  • Get these in! Count them up, record the total, and bring them in by the end of the day Friday
  • YOU CANNOT COUNT YOUR STAMPS IN CLASS. If you do, you will be given a 0. Be responsible and get this done!

LAST HOMEWORK GRADE: Bring back your textbook (and a calculator if you borrowed one) by the end of the day Wednesday
  • You can bring back your book any day! Get it back to me as soon as possible so you don't have to worry about any accountabilities!
  • If you do not bring back your textbook by the end of the day Monday you will get a 0 on a homework!

If you were absent this past Tuesday (for any reason) You MUST complete our last test! This must be done ASAP (by the end of the day Wednesday)**

Here is the review packet for our last test, in case you need it (answer key sent via Remind last week):










Monday, May 21, 2018

LAST TEST TOMORROW!

Today in class we used the period to work through the review questions/packet below.

Tomorrow (in class) we will take our last test of AP Stat (other than the final)--the test is based on the exact content in this packet, so do it, check your answers, and come ready to earn an A!

The answer key was sent out via Remind! If you didn't get it, email me and I'll forward a copy.

**You MUST complete this test before the end of the week**






Bring back your textbook (and a calculator if you borrowed one)!
  • You can bring back your book any day! Get it back to me as soon as possible so you don't have to worry about any accountabilities!

Stamps (red thumbs up) are due Friday!
  • You know the deal...count them up, write the total on the front, get them all together.
  • We will have more stamps coming, but they'll be a different color and a separate grade!


Friday, May 18, 2018

Happy weekend!

No homework! Woooooo!!!!! This is a weekend to rest up, relax, and if you're a senior, have an amazing prom weekend!

Here's some stuff you need to know for next week--please take a minute to read this:

1.) We will have our last test of the quarter on Tuesday!

  • We will use Monday's class to complete a review (classwork) for the test. You will have the entire period to work on this review, and Tuesday's test is very similar.
  • You should bring your notebook to class on Monday so you can use it for the review!
    • Then, if you finish the review early, you can start to clean out the stuff you don't need!
    • I would definitely keep your notebook for college.
  • Tuesday's test (based on the review) will consist of 32 multiple choice questions and will be worth 100 points, like every other in-class test this year--this is an opportunity to boost your 4th quarter average! 
  • Come ready to work on Monday!
2.) Bring back your textbook (and a calculator if you borrowed one)!
  • You can bring back your book Monday! Get it back to me as soon as possible so you don't have to worry about any accountabilities!
3.) Stamps (red thumbs up) are due by next Friday!
  • You know the deal...count them up, write the total on the front, get them all together.
  • We will have more stamps coming, but they'll be a different color and a separate grade!
We'll talk more about the rest of the year next week--first let's get this last test done (Monday/Tuesday)! Until then, have an awesome weekend! See you Monday!

Thursday, May 17, 2018

We did it!

You did it! We have worked incredibly hard this year, all in preparation for today. It all started back in August; since then, we've done countless homework assignments, worked incredibly hard in class each and every day as we moved quickly through content, and you've risen to the many challenges I've given you (sometimes rudely).

Your hard work and dedication does not go unnoticed, and is much appreciated. I am incredibly proud of each and every one of you for your commitment to success in our class. I am especially proud after seeing how many people put in the time to study last night and over the past week, as well as this morning--seeing this only increased my confidence in our performance on this exam.

I hope you feel like you did as well as you could--as long as you did your best, that's all that matters. I look forward to seeing you in person so we can talk about all this more! Now we get to ease off the gas--there will still be assignments and work to do, but we can now take a deep breath and keep that work inside the classroom.

Remember, tomorrow we have STAR testing in room 121. That means another day of showing up and doing your best! See you there!

Friday, May 11, 2018

Tomorrow, tomorrow....

**Be sure to BRING A CALCULATOR to tomorrow's exam! Borrow one from a friend or a teacher--I do not have enough to supply every person who usually borrows one!**

We have spent our entire year working to prepare for tomorrow's exam. We have learned a lot, grown quite a bit, and pushed ourselves to continually improve. I have been tough on you, been a jerk at times, and consistently challenged you to do better--I appreciate all of your hard work and am proud of all that we have accomplished as an AP Stat cohort this year. I have the utmost confidence that each and every one of you can earn at least a 40% on the exam--and that means no ones! I have equal confidence that, if we put in the work to prepare for the exam (tonight),. we can surpass the national % of "qualifying scores" (3,4,5) on this exam! 

Today/tonight is about one thing, and one thing only--PREPARATION. STUDYING. Prepare yourself to do YOUR best tomorrow and to earn the best score you possibly can. (And maybe earn some college credit, and a little money, and most importantly, the satisfaction of knowing you're a top AP Stat student in the nation).

And tomorrow is also only about one thing--doing your best. Rest up tonight, eat breakfast, and come tomorrow with maximum focus, ready to give your absolute best. NO BLANK QUESTIONS. NO HEADS DOWN. Use all of your time, and even if you aren't sure exactly how to answer something, try...come up with some idea and do your best to answer the question being asked. 

Periods A/D: We do have class tomorrow. Come ready to do a little last minute studying and I can answer any lingering/last mintue questions. 

The first things you can do to study tonight:
  1. Complete the 3 free response questions provided in class (or below).
    • Periods A/D you can do these in class tomorrow if you like.
    • Answers are posted below.
  2. Complete the rest of the bingo questions for more practice (answers below).
  • Here are the "Test and Interval" FR and Key:



  • And here are all of the MC bingo answers:
    • "AP Review MC: Statistical Inference"
      • Sophomore, junior.....C
      • An experimenter conducted...D
      • A random sample of 50...B
      • Suppose that on a hypothesis test...E
      • Each person in a...A
      • A large number of randomized experiments...E
      • The American Medical Association...E
    • "AP Exam Review: Miscellaneous MC"
      • Researchers conducted a telephone...C
      • Researchers used two footballs...D
      • Research indicates that...B
      • An airline recorded...E
      • Measurements of water quality...D
      • Ecologists wanted to estimate...E
    • "AP MC Review: Data Collection and Analysis"
      • The dotplot below...B
      • Janelle collected data...E
      • The director of a fitness...C
      • There is concern...E
      • Three brothers...D
    • "More Bingo MC"
      • 1.) B
      • 2.) D
      • 3.) C
      • 4.) C
      • 5.) A
      • 6.) A
      • 7.) B
      • 8.) A
      • 9.) E
      • 10.) C

How else can I study for the exam (TOMORROW!!)?
  1. The best thing you can do to prepare is try practice exams.
    • Think link below has copies of multiple "official" practice exams created by the college board--these are the most authentic practice tests you can find, and these are the best way you can study. Thanks for this Morphy!
    • The only catch is that you can't print them--no big deal, just do all your work neatly on separate paper!
    • It's not only important to do the practice test, it's just as important to then score it!
    • We'll use some of these multiple choice questions in our review on Tuesday/Wednesday.
  2. Do all of your "suggested homework!"
    • Another option is to complete all of those extra problems you got in class! 
    • All of the answers are posted on the blog--just look at the past blog posts
      • Tuesday = all probability stuff (questions also on Monday's post)
      • Wednesday = Sampling Distributions packet
      • Thursday = Random Variables and Probability packet
    • Scroll through the previous blog posts for more info/answer keys/etc.
  3. Work through the (many) extra free response you had on the back of past homework assignments! 
    • Each time we had a free response to complete/score for homework there was an extra problem on the back! Do those--there are some really good ones!
  4. Do more released free response! Use the link above (or below again) to find EVERY released free response question from past exams!
  5. Type up an outline of your notes or review your past notes!
    • Use the outline in yesterday's post to make a giant study guide covering those topics...
    • Maybe make flash cards for vocabulary or for our "writing templates"
      • Make the flash cards on "Quizlet" and share them with classmates--work together!
    • Look at the table outlining our tests/intervals in the blog post below--copy this down onto your own blank paper (writing stuff helps you remember it)! Add in the formulas and add in any other notes you find helpful!
  6. Did I mention practice exams?

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Thursday Suggested HW: "Random Variables and Probability" Packet
  • Here are the answers...
    • 1.) A college student....
      • Mean = $219
      • St. Dev. = $9.868
    • A random variable X...
      • B
    • 2.) A local radio station...
      • a.) Mean = 156 min, St. Dev. = 7.5895 min
      • b.) 0.000783 or 7.828E-4
    • Ten percent of all Dynamite Mints....
      • D
    • A company shifts gift baskets...
      • B
    • Research indicates that the standard deviation...
      • B
    • The random variable x is normally distributed...
      • D
    • The SC Electric Company has bid on two electrical wiring jobs...
      • C
    • It is estimate that, at a certain university...
      • a.) 0.00137
      • b.) 0.2007
      • c.) 0.61772
    • A plumbing contractor...
      • A
    • A blind taste test will be conducted...
      • B

Table of Tests/Intervals: The formulas are not provided; although we don't need to show these for a free response, we do need to know all this stuff--so one additional way to study is to copy all this information into your notes (if you copy it down you will retain it; if you just look at the pictures, you will not.) Then, go back through your notes and provide all of the missing formulas!



More Topics Related to Hypothesis Tests/Confidence Interval To Study:
  • Interpret the meaning of the confidence level
  • Know how changes in sample size and confidence level affect the margin of error and the width of an interval
  • Know how changes in sample size affect the standard deviation/standard error
  • Find the value of a point estimate (the sample statistic) given the interval
  • Find the margin of error given the interval
  • Calculate margin of error given the sample data
  • Use a confidence interval to test hypotheses
  • Use a 2 sample confidence interval to determine if it shows evidence of a significant difference
  • Define Type I and Type II errors, and be able to identify consequences of each (if info about this is in the context)
  • Interpret p-value in context
  • Interpret the meaning of power in context
  • Know how power is calculated
  • Know how to decrease power
  • Know that alpha and beta are the probabilities of Type I/Type II errors, and how changing alpha affects beta
  • Let me know if I left anything off this list!


Topics to Study: Here's  a list of the topics we've learned throughout the year (other than all the inference stuff above)
  • This is a brief/general overview--not necessarily every detail we need to know

AP Exam Review: Topic List
  1. 1. Creating/Describing Distributions
    a.      Creating a histogram—by hand and on calculator
    b.      Creating a boxplot—*by hand* and on calculator
                                                        i.     Determining outliers using fences
    c.      Creating/Reading/Describing…
                                                        i.     Dotplot
                                                       ii.     Stem and Leaf plot
                                                      iii.     Cumulative Frequency Histogram
    d.      Describing a distribution
                                                        i.     Shape: skewed vs. symmetric
                                                       ii.     Center: mean vs. median
                                                      iii.     Spread: standard deviation vs. IQR (and can also use range)
                                                      iv.     Note gaps
                                                       v.     Note outliers
    e.      Adding a constant to a data set: affects center, but not spread
    f.       Multiplying by a constant to a data set: affects both center and spread
    g.      The Normal Model
                                                        i.     What is a z-score?
                                                       ii.     Calculating z-scores
                                                      iii.     Using z-scores to find probability
    1.      Normalcdf(lower bound, upper bound, mean, standard deviation)
    2.      Using z-table (not necessary if you can use normalcdf)
    3.      68/95/99.7 rule
    2.      Linear Regression
    a.      Interpret slope
    b.      Interpret y-intercept
    c.      Reading computer output—identify slope, y-int, standard deviation of x, standard deviation of residuals
    d.      Interpreting the Coefficient of Determination (R^2)
    e.      Describing a scatterplot:
                                                        i.     Shape, direction, strength (r)
    f.       Examining/creating a residual plot
                                                        i.     Overestimate: residual is (-); Underestimate: residual is (+)
    g.      Finding LSRL with calculator
                                                        i.     STATàCALCà(8)LinReg(a+bx) L1, L2, Y1
    1.      Used to find r, R^2
    2.      Also need to do this before you can look at a residual plot
    h.      Outliers, Influence, and Leverage
    i.       Lurking Variables
    3.      Sample Surveys
    a.      Understanding randomness
                                                        i.     Describing randomization processes—using random number generator, cards, names from a hat, etc.
                                                       ii.     Using random number tables
    b.      Sampling Methods
                                                        i.     SRS
                                                       ii.     Stratified
                                                      iii.     Cluster
                                                      iv.     Convenience
                                                       v.     Systematic
    c.      Bias: over or under representing a specific group in the population
                                                        i.     Response Bias
                                                       ii.     Nonresponse Bias—people have the choice, and some do not respond, leaving out part of the population
                                                      iii.     Voluntary Response Bias
                                                      iv.     Undercoverage—your design misses part of the population
    4.      Experimental Design
    a.      Writing experimental designs/procedures
                                                        i.     Response Variable
                                                       ii.     Factors, levels, treatments
                                                      iii.     Control, Randomization, Replication—and don’t forget to comment on comparison!
    b.      Blocking: create homogenous groups to allow for better comparison
    c.      Confounding Variables
    d.      Single vs. Double Blind
    5.      Observational Studies
    a.      Retrospective vs. Prospective
    b.      Matching (same as blocking, but for observational studies)
    6.      Probability
    a.      Venn Diagrams
    b.      Conditional Probability
                                                        i.     Tree Diagrams
    c.      Independence Formula: P(B/A) = P(A)
    d.      Expected Value and Variance
                                                        i.     Remember, we cannot add standard deviations but we can ALWAYS ADD VARIANCES
                                                       ii.     Using a Normal model after finding a new E(X), variance
    e.      “And, Or, Not, Given”
    f.       Binomial Probability Distribution
                                                        i.     Binomialpdf( Ã  Used when given a specific sample size and one specific number of successes
                                                       ii.     Binomialcdf( Ã  Cumulative; used when given a specific sample size and multiple numbers of successes
    g.      Geometric Probability Distribution
                                                        i.     Used to calculate the “first” (Hint: if you simply use the ideas of “and,or” you won’t really need to use a geometric distribution)
    h.      Mutually Exclusive/Disjoint VS. Independent
    7.      Statistical Inference
    a.      See statistical inference chart

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

No 1's.

No 1's. That's the goal. And that's on all of us. Study, study, study.

Tonight's Suggested Homework: Sampling Distribution Multiple Choice! (provided in class, answers below)

  • "Sampling Distribution Notes Page"--MC on back...
    • 3.) Based on records.....D
      • Pay attention--the sample size is not 100 here...
    • 4.) In one region....E
    • 5.) C
      • I would write the hypotheses for this context--and remember, "statistic - parameter" in the numerator, and we always use the value in the Ho for our standard deviation
  • "More Sampling Distributions" MC
    • A recent study was conducted...B
    • For a sample of 42 rabbits....C
      • This question is NOT about the average weight of the sample, so this is NOT a sampling distribution--so we can't assume the shape is approximately Normal with a large sample
    • There were 5,317 previously...A
    • A recent survey concluded...D
    • In a large school district...B
    • A 90 percent confidence interval...B
    • Which of the following pairs of....E




Table of Tests/Intervals: The formulas are not provided; although we don't need to show these for a free response, we do need to know all this stuff--so one additional way to study is to copy all this information into your notes (if you copy it down you will retain it; if you just look at the pictures, you will not.) Then, go back through your notes and provide all of the missing formulas!



More Topics Related to Hypothesis Tests/Confidence Interval To Study:
  • Interpret the meaning of the confidence level
  • Know how changes in sample size and confidence level affect the margin of error and the width of an interval
  • Know how changes in sample size affect the standard deviation/standard error
  • Find the value of a point estimate (the sample statistic) given the interval
  • Find the margin of error given the interval
  • Calculate margin of error given the sample data
  • Use a confidence interval to test hypotheses
  • Use a 2 sample confidence interval to determine if it shows evidence of a significant difference
  • Define Type I and Type II errors, and be able to identify consequences of each (if info about this is in the context)
  • Interpret p-value in context
  • Interpret the meaning of power in context
  • Know how power is calculated
  • Know how to decrease power
  • Know that alpha and beta are the probabilities of Type I/Type II errors, and how changing alpha affects beta
  • Let me know if I left anything off this list!


Topics to Study: Here's  a list of the topics we've learned throughout the year (other than all the inference stuff above)
  • This is a brief/general overview--not necessarily every detail we need to know

AP Exam Review: Topic List
  1. 1. Creating/Describing Distributions
    a.      Creating a histogram—by hand and on calculator
    b.      Creating a boxplot—*by hand* and on calculator
                                                        i.     Determining outliers using fences
    c.      Creating/Reading/Describing…
                                                        i.     Dotplot
                                                       ii.     Stem and Leaf plot
                                                      iii.     Cumulative Frequency Histogram
    d.      Describing a distribution
                                                        i.     Shape: skewed vs. symmetric
                                                       ii.     Center: mean vs. median
                                                      iii.     Spread: standard deviation vs. IQR (and can also use range)
                                                      iv.     Note gaps
                                                       v.     Note outliers
    e.      Adding a constant to a data set: affects center, but not spread
    f.       Multiplying by a constant to a data set: affects both center and spread
    g.      The Normal Model
                                                        i.     What is a z-score?
                                                       ii.     Calculating z-scores
                                                      iii.     Using z-scores to find probability
    1.      Normalcdf(lower bound, upper bound, mean, standard deviation)
    2.      Using z-table (not necessary if you can use normalcdf)
    3.      68/95/99.7 rule
    2.      Linear Regression
    a.      Interpret slope
    b.      Interpret y-intercept
    c.      Reading computer output—identify slope, y-int, standard deviation of x, standard deviation of residuals
    d.      Interpreting the Coefficient of Determination (R^2)
    e.      Describing a scatterplot:
                                                        i.     Shape, direction, strength (r)
    f.       Examining/creating a residual plot
                                                        i.     Overestimate: residual is (-); Underestimate: residual is (+)
    g.      Finding LSRL with calculator
                                                        i.     STATàCALCà(8)LinReg(a+bx) L1, L2, Y1
    1.      Used to find r, R^2
    2.      Also need to do this before you can look at a residual plot
    h.      Outliers, Influence, and Leverage
    i.       Lurking Variables
    3.      Sample Surveys
    a.      Understanding randomness
                                                        i.     Describing randomization processes—using random number generator, cards, names from a hat, etc.
                                                       ii.     Using random number tables
    b.      Sampling Methods
                                                        i.     SRS
                                                       ii.     Stratified
                                                      iii.     Cluster
                                                      iv.     Convenience
                                                       v.     Systematic
    c.      Bias: over or under representing a specific group in the population
                                                        i.     Response Bias
                                                       ii.     Nonresponse Bias—people have the choice, and some do not respond, leaving out part of the population
                                                      iii.     Voluntary Response Bias
                                                      iv.     Undercoverage—your design misses part of the population
    4.      Experimental Design
    a.      Writing experimental designs/procedures
                                                        i.     Response Variable
                                                       ii.     Factors, levels, treatments
                                                      iii.     Control, Randomization, Replication—and don’t forget to comment on comparison!
    b.      Blocking: create homogenous groups to allow for better comparison
    c.      Confounding Variables
    d.      Single vs. Double Blind
    5.      Observational Studies
    a.      Retrospective vs. Prospective
    b.      Matching (same as blocking, but for observational studies)
    6.      Probability
    a.      Venn Diagrams
    b.      Conditional Probability
                                                        i.     Tree Diagrams
    c.      Independence Formula: P(B/A) = P(A)
    d.      Expected Value and Variance
                                                        i.     Remember, we cannot add standard deviations but we can ALWAYS ADD VARIANCES
                                                       ii.     Using a Normal model after finding a new E(X), variance
    e.      “And, Or, Not, Given”
    f.       Binomial Probability Distribution
                                                        i.     Binomialpdf( Ã  Used when given a specific sample size and one specific number of successes
                                                       ii.     Binomialcdf( Ã  Cumulative; used when given a specific sample size and multiple numbers of successes
    g.      Geometric Probability Distribution
                                                        i.     Used to calculate the “first” (Hint: if you simply use the ideas of “and,or” you won’t really need to use a geometric distribution)
    h.      Mutually Exclusive/Disjoint VS. Independent
    7.      Statistical Inference
    a.      See statistical inference chart