Happy Winter Break!

#1 priority for break: rest up, relax, ENJOY some time with friends and family, and ENJOY some alone time too! Use this as an opportunity to "recharge your battery" and come back fresh in 2020! We'll be starting a new unit when we come back (chapters 12, 13 in our textbook--how do we collect data?); come ready to give your best and to perform your best in our second half of the year!

There will be an assignment due after our 3 day (Three Kings Day) weekend after break. All the info is below if you want to get ahead. If you want to use this week off as a true break, great! Or, if you're the kind of person who likes to get ahead, here's the deal:

Assignment Due Tuesday, January 7th:

• Our next unit is about how to collect data--how to design experiments, and how to randomly collect samples. However, you know lots about experiments already--so, to save time (and because you know lots of stuff), you will have to read chapter 13 in our textbook and take your own notes!
• Then we'll spend about 3-4 class periods applying what you learned and looking at some AP FR and AP MC.
• Here's everything you need. 
• First, read chapter 13 and answer the questions linked below in your notes. (I also gave these to you in class on Friday).
• There is a link to a slightly newer version of our book on the blog (top right); you can use this to take your notes, but the page numbers listed may not match up.
• You don't have to write the question--do what works for you, these are your notes. Use bullets, use complete sentences, whatever works best for you.
• Try to avoid just copying stuff from the book; if you put ideas in your own words it makes you think about what you're writing, and ultimately develop a better understanding
• Jot down any questions that come up--for instance, if you don't understand what a "confounding variable" is, make a note of that! Your questions will guide our discussions in class.
• Chapter 13 Reading Questions (Guided Notes) Click Me!
• Question 7: we haven't had our first day of notes yet! So here's the answer...
• 7.) An experiment is the ONLY method of data collection that allows us to establish a cause and effect relationship.

• Then you will have to complete the multiple choice linked below! I will give you this when we're back from break, but if you want to get even more of a head start, here you go!
• These questions are based on your notes/reading in chapter 13!
• Chapter 13 MC: Due Tues, 1/7 (Click Me!)

• Another helpful resource:
• The link below has answers to a bunch of questions students asked last year after their reading. If you were confused about anything you read, take a look here and you'll likely find some more info about that topic/idea!
• Common Questions After Reading (Answered) (Click Me!)

Are you feeling absolutely insane and realllly want to get ahead? 

• I think doing what's about is enough, but if you're super ambitious, here's some more ways to get ahead of the game:
• Start counting/organizing your stamps!
• Stamps will not be due until 1/15, but you can still start to organize them if you like!
• Same deal as last time--you'll have to count them up, get them all together, write the total on the front.
• Always double check your count.
• 
  

See ya'll in 2020! Come back ready to go! Have an awesome 12 days off!

Vocab Test Tomorrow!

One more test and then it's on to break....one more night of hard work...

Tomorrow = Vocab Test! 

1.) What's on it?

• Matching Vocab: 24 questions
• 4 Questions: given two events determine if they are independent, disjoint, or neither
• 1 question: interpret expected value, in context
• 3 questions: more probability MC (if time permits; come prepared, as these questions may or may not be part of our test tomorrow)
• Question 1: calculate a probability using binompdf or using binomcdf (like Wednesday's examples in our slides, or Monday's hw)
• Question 2: find the probability the first success is __ or ___ (like part b on Monday's HW)
• Question 3: calculate the probability of an "exact" # of successes without binompdf--show the formula (look @ Monday's notes)
• Matching Vocab: 24 terms
• Probability
• Independent (Events)
• Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive (Events)
• Law of Large Numbers
• Law of Averages
• Equally Likely
• Sample Space
• Complement
• Conditional Probability 
• Intersection
• Union
• Venn Diagram
• Tree Diagram
• Random Variable
• Discrete Random Variable
• Continuous Random Variable
• Probability Model/Probability Distribution
• Expected Value
• Variance
• Pythagorean Theorem of Statistics ("variances always add"
• Shifting
• Rescaling
• Binomial Probability
• Geometric Probability

2.) Here is a link to the chapter 16 vocab quiz--we did not do this in class, but you can use it to study!

• Then, if you review the ch. 14, 15, and 16 vocab quizzes you'll have every word on a quiz except for binomial probability and geometric probability
• Ch. 16 Vocab Quiz (Click Me!)
• Ch. 16 Vocab Quiz Key:
1. D
2. B
3. B
4. E
5. C
6. B
7. D
8. A
9. B
10. D
11. A 
12. A
13. B

STUUUUDDDDYYYYYYYYY!!!!

*Sorry to be a downer, but if you have Principal's Bingo tomorrow during period A it would be a terrible idea to miss our test for Principal's Bingo. If you have a free period you can come do your test later in the day, but otherwise I would skip Bingo and get your test done.

It's not break yet. Come ready tomorrow. Make yourself proud, don't let yourself down on this test. STUDY, STUDY, STUDY = Do practice problems!

1.) Complete the review "packet" with some multiple choice and open ended provided in class!

• Probability Review Multiple Choice (Click Me!)

• Skip questions 5 and 6. Those are terrible questions.

• Probability Review MC KEY (Click Me!)
• Probability Review Open Ended (Potato Chips)

• For #2 it should say "use your answer to part D above"

• Probability Review Open Ended KEY

2.) AP Classroom!

• I have assigned 2 multiple choice assignments and 1 open ended assignment in AP Classroom...
• These will not be graded as a quiz or classwork, instead, these are tools you can use to study if you like!
• For the multiple choice be sure to look at your results and look over the solutions to anything you got wrong!
• For the free response you can just do it on paper--here's the key:
• Probability (Unit 4) Free Response Progress Check KEY

The key to studying is to first do the questions; then, check your work. However, don't just mark the wrong stuff wrong--that doesn't help you learn. If you answered a question incorrectly it's important you go back and try to figure out the correct approach! That's how you learn stuff!

3.) What are some of the topics on tomorrow's test? 

• 8 MC
• 15 open ended (15 if I count each a,b,c as its own question)
• Some topics to review: (all of this is covered in the review packets linked above)
• "at least 1 problems" v. "exactly one" problems
• Look at our first (ch. 14) quiz--know everything on here
• Everything on all of your past quizzes--chapter 14 in class quiz, chapter 14/15 Thanksgiving break quiz, ch. 16 quiz
• *No interpret expected value until Friday
• Know when/how to work with Venn diagrams
• Be able to create a Venn diagram and to find the overlap (like the soccer/bball problem in our notes)
• Conditional probability
• With two way tables
• With Venn diagrams
• With tree diagrams
• Find probabilities with a normal model (normalcdf!)
• Calculate probabilities "without replacement"--write out lines, use words (back to basics!)
• Create and use tree diagrams!
• Calculate expected value and/or create a probability model
• Combine random variables--find the new mean and standard deviation
• "Variances always add"
• Look over the weekend HW--something like this on our test!
• Shifting/Rescaling random variables--look over our stamp problem based on these ideas; the first question is a MC with a table listing "# of cubic yards"
• If you do all of the review stuff linked above (under #1) you will cover all of these topics!

4.) I will accept any missing homework assignments tomorrow for full credit.

Feel free to send Remind messages with questions; see you all tomorrow! Come ready to earn an A!

Vocab Test: if you're going to be here Friday I wouldn't worry about this, but if you have to do the test tomorrow because you'll be out, here's what you need to know:

• 2-3 additional multiple choice, 1 open ended
• Open Ended = interpret expected value
• MC = more probability
• Binompdf and binomcdf
• Some stuff like Monday's HW
• Matching Vocab: 24 terms
• Probability
• Independent (Events)
• Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive (Events)
• Law of Large Numbers
• Law of Averages
• Equally Likely
• Sample Space
• Complement
• Conditional Probability 
• Intersection
• Union
• Venn Diagram
• Tree Diagram
• Random Variable
• Discrete Random Variable
• Continuous Random Variable
• Probability Model/Probability Distribution
• Expected Value
• Variance
• Pythagorean Theorem of Statistics ("variances always add"
• Shifting
• Rescaling
• Binomial Probability
• Geometric Probability
• Here is a link to the chapter 16 vocab quiz--we did not do this in class, but you can use it to study!
• Then, if you review the ch. 14, 15, and 16 vocab quizzes you'll have every word on a quiz except for binomial probability and geometric probability
• Ch. 16 Vocab Quiz (Click Me!)
• Ch. 16 Vocab Quiz Key:
1. D
2. B
3. B
4. E
5. C
6. B
7. D
8. A
9. B
10. D
11. A 
12. A
13. B

One last probability HW + Study

1.) You have one last homework assignment for our probability unit--the "Geometric and Binomial Probability" assignment provided in class (or linked below).

• This is due Wednesday!
• Geometric and Binomial Probability HW (Click Me!)
• After today's notes you should be able to complete the following:
• *Note: if we have a snow day tomorrow I will only be checking for these problems on Wednesday
• a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, 
• I haven't taught you how to do c or d, but you don't need me to! Use some proportions and do some cross multiplying to solve; you got this
• For j, "found among the first 3 people surveyed," is another way of saying "the first person who speaks a language other than English at home is the 1st person surveyed, or the 2nd person surveyed, or the 3rd person surveyed."
• Check your answers! (provided in parentheses)

2.) STUDY, STUDY, STUDY = Do practice problems!

• If we have a snow day tomorrow take advantage of some extra time to study!
• I will not be available after school on Wednesday or F period Wednesday to help (meetings, boo); I WILL be after school until 2:40 on Tuesday
• How can I study for the test!
• Our vocab test (Friday 12/20) will be based on reviewing notes/vocab, but our math test (Thursday 12/19) is all about doing practice, practice, practice....lots of problems

1. Complete the review "packet" with some multiple choice and open ended provided in class!
• We have not learned how to do these questions (yet): coming Monday-Weds...
• MC #10
• Open Ended (potato chips) #4, 6, 7
• Probability Review Multiple Choice (Click Me!)
• Skip questions 5 and 6. Those are terrible.
• Probability Review MC KEY (Click Me!)
• Probability Review Open Ended (Potato Chips)
• For #2 it should say "use your answer to part D above"
• I will post the answer key to the open ended soon....Monday the latest
2. AP Classroom!
• I have assigned 2 multiple choice assignments and 1 open ended assignment in AP Classroom...
• These will not be graded as a quiz or classwork, instead, these are tools you can use to study if you like!
• For the multiple choice be sure to look at your results and look over the solutions to anything you got wrong!
• For the free response you can just do it on paper--here's the key:
• Probability (Unit 4) Free Response Progress Check KEY

• The key to studying is to first do the questions; then, check your work. However, don't just mark the wrong stuff wrong--that doesn't help you learn. If you answered a question incorrectly it's important you go back and try to figure out the correct approach! That's how you learn stuff!

Weekend HW + Review for Test

Lots to read in this blog post:

1.) Weekend HW = more combining random variables practice!

• Weekend HW: 33, 37, 38 (Click Me!)
• These questions are linked below or are the sheet you took in class, but they're also just taken from our textbook: p. 383-384: 33, 38, 38
• For 33abc look at today's example from our "stereo slide," question 2!
• For 33de it's more like question 1 on our "stereo slide" notes
• 37 and 38 are very similar--find the mean and standard deviation for the total team time/total setup time, then use these values to calculate a probability!
• You have to write a sentence for b!
• Always check your answers! Here's a link to the key:
• You'll definitely have to do something like this on our test, so be sure to understand this stuff!
• 33, 37, 38 Answer KEY with work! (Click me)

2.) START STUDYING for your test!

• I will not be available after school on Wednesday or F period Wednesday to help (meetings, boo), so it's a good idea to start studying now! I WILL be after school Monday if you have questions, or if you want to come to study!
• After school Monday = study session! Come work with classmates on the review practice!
• How can I study for the test!
• Our vocab test (Friday 12/20) will be based on reviewing notes/vocab, but our math test (Thursday 12/19) is all about doing practice, practice, practice....lots of problems

1. Complete the review "packet" with some multiple choice and open ended provided in class!
• We have not learned how to do these questions (yet): coming Monday-Weds...
• MC #10
• Open Ended (potato chips) #4, 6, 7
• Probability Review Multiple Choice (Click Me!)
• Probability Review MC KEY (Click Me!)
• Probability Review Open Ended (Potato Chips)
• I will post the answer key to the open ended soon....Monday the latest
2. AP Classroom!
• I have assigned 2 multiple choice assignments and 1 open ended assignment in AP Classroom...
• These will not be graded as a quiz or classwork, instead, these are tools you can use to study if you like!
• For the multiple choice be sure to look at your results and look over the solutions to anything you got wrong!
• For the free response you can just do it on paper--here's the key:
• Probability (Unit 4) Free Response Progress Check KEY

• The key to studying is to first do the questions; then, check your work. However, don't just mark the wrong stuff wrong--that doesn't help you learn. If you answered a question incorrectly it's important you go back and try to figure out the correct approach! That's how you learn stuff!

It's not break yet! Work hard this weekend to prepare for our test--the last tests of the second quarter!

Thursday HW!

HW, HW, HW....practice is the key to probability! Stay engaged, stay motivated, and work hard--we have to be ready for this test next week!

Thursday's HW: 2 things....

1.) Please complete question 1 on the last slide in our notes (or below)--do this question near the slide in your notebook.

• For this question we're looking at packing two items only, so we only need the "packing" numbers--we won't use the boxing numbers for #1
• Step 1: Find the mean and standard deviation for packing two systems! Look at today's notes about dogs and cats
• Answers: 
• E(packing time for two systems) = 18 min
• St. Dev(packing time for two systems) = 2.12 min
• Step 2: Use your mean and standard deviation for two systems, and the fact that packing times are Normally distributed, to find the probability it takes over 20 minutes to pack 2 systems!
• Normalcdf!
• Be sure to show a shaded model and normalcdf with each value labeled

2.) Please complete the following in your textbook:

• Page 383: 25, 27ab, 31bc
• 25 uses some of the ideas of rescaling with combining random variables...
• For example, look at #26:
• 26a.) 2Y + 20
• E(2Y + 20) = 2(12) + 20 = 44
• St. Dev(2Y + 20) = 2(3) = 6 (we don't add 20 because shifting doesn't affect st. dev)
• 26c.) 0.25X + Y
• E(0.25X +Y) = 0.25(80) + 12 = 32
• St. Dev(0.25X + Y)
• First, find the st. dev for 0.25X = 0.25(80) = 20
• From here, we can't add standard deviations...variances always add, so we do 20^2 + 3^2 = 409. 409 is the variance, so st. dev. = sqrt(409) = 20.223
• 27ab and 31bc are more like the dogs/cats examples from our notes today

If you were out today here are the notes from our slides about cats and dogs:

And here is the slide for the homework question:

Lastly, many people have been asking if we'll have work over break....kinda/maybe...

• Our next unit when we come back from break is about how to collect data; you will have to read chapter 13 (experiments and observational studies), take notes/answer questions based on your reading, and then complete a multiple choice packet--this will all be on your own
• This assignment will be due the Tuesday after 3 Kings Day (1/7)
• I will post the assignment on the blog, so if you want to do it over break, you can (and then not stress that 3 day weekend)
• Or, if you want to just enjoy the break, you can save all this for the 3 day weekend...your call.

Quiz Tomorrow!

Tomorrow we will start class with a 12 minute quiz! Come ready!

• What do I need to know for the quiz?

• Create a probability model for a given context
• Calculate expected value (show work)
• Calculate standard deviation and/or variance (using calc--1 Var Stats)
• Interpret expected value in a sentence

• How can I prepare for the quiz?

• Look over last night's multiple choice!
• Here is an answer key to last night's homework with ALL of the work shown:
• Random Variable MC KEY with Work (Click Me!)

• Look back at Monday night's homework and/or key (linked below) to review "interpret expected value." 

• Look back at our weekend book work!
• p. 381-383: 3, 5, 7, 15, 21

• Try more practice problems!
• p. 382: #6b, 17, 19, 22
• Do these on separate paper and grade yourself for +2 on your quiz
• Here are the answers to 6b and 22
• 6b.) Table: probability of 1 dart 0.1, prob for 2 darts = 0.09, prob. for 3 darts = 0.081, prob for 4 darts (and win) = 0.0729, prob for 4 darts (and lose) = 0.6561
• 6b.) E(# darts) = 3.44
• 6c.) E(wnnings) = $17.20
• 22a.) Table: prob. of 0 males = 0.143, prob. of 1 male = 0.571, prob. of 2 males = 0.286
• 22b.) E(# males) = 1.14 males
• 22c.) st. dev(# males) = 0.64 males

Tuesday HW = AP MC!

Tonight's homework gives us some more practice with expected value (and a lil' review in #6)! 

These questions represent some great preparation for the AP exam, for our upcoming test, and for the expected value "warmup quiz" we'll start class with on Thursday!

Here's the homework questions and a few tips/comments:

• AP MC Homework Tues 12/10 (Click Me!)
• Answer every question!
• Make notes/comments/show work to provide evidence that you actually worked hard on this and didn't just circle 7 answers!
• You should definitely be able to do 1, 2, and 5 fairly easily. Don't overthink them!
• We also have a stamp problem that was like #6 you can reference....
• Even if you aren't sure how to do a question or show the exact/correct work in its entirety, try to use some "multiple choice strategies" and come up with an answer!
• For example, #7 is the toughest question mathematically, but if you can't figure it out you can make an educated guess!
• On the AP exam you would want to complete these in about 18 minutes. Maybe time yourself for practice! (But then if you didn't finish go back and do the rest, don't show me any incomplete homework! Practicing the math is more important than practicing the timing tonight).
• I'll provide the answers and we'll go over any questions tomorrow in class.

Tomorrow we'll get back to "combining random variables" with the goal of finishing chapter 16 by the end of Friday! That'll leave us with 3 days to cover chapter 17 before our tests!

Monday's HW:

• Monday's HW: Understanding Expected Value (Click Me!)
• The key to this assignment is understanding how to calculate the probabilities for the table....
• Remember, we are going to play some game twice and look at the sum of the scores for each game; in any individual game we can score 0, 1, or 2 points....
• The table is giving us the sum of the points from two games; how could we earn a sum of 0? How many points would we need in the first game and then the second?
• Or, to get a sum of 3, we could get a "___ and ___," or a "___ and ___." 
• Use the probabilities shown in the graph and your "words and lines" to calculate the probability we get a sum of 0!
• Be sure to check that your probabilities add up to 1!

Always check your answers! Here's a key:

• Monday's HW: Uncovering Expected Value (ANSWER KEY, CLICK ME!)

Tomorrow it's on to more new stuff. See you there!

Weekend HW!

This weekend please complete the following in your textbook....

(*Note: this was changed/updated during period F Friday)

Weekend HW: p. 381-383 : 3/11, 5, 7, 15, 21

• This homework provides some key practice--be sure to do it thoroughly, check your answers, and more so, if you got something wrong go back and figure out your mistake!
• We have to move quickly to finish our unit before break, so it's important you get this practice on your own, as we won't have a ton of time to practice in class.
• For #3 you need to know about a deck of cards...
• There are 52 total cards
• There are 13 spades, 13 clubs, 13 hearts, and 13 diamonds (13 of each suit)
• There is one Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King, for each suit
• So, there are 4 Aces, 4 2's, 4 3's, and so on...
• For 5ab you want to use a probability model for the number of children...
• But for 5c you want the expected number of boys, so you need a new model showing "# of boys" as your outcome rather than "# of children"
• For 11 and 15b:
• To find standard deviation we need to use our graphing calculator!
• Enter the outcomes in L1, probabilities in L2
• Go to STAT --> CALC --> 1 Var Stat
• XList = Outcomes (L1), FreqList = Probabilities (L2)
• Or, if you have an older model, when "1 Var Stat" pops up you need to type "1 Var Stat Outcome List, Probability List" or "1 Var Stat L1, L2."
• Standard deviation = sigma
• Expected value = mean 
• Do 15a and b both on the calculator!
• ALWAYS CHECK YOUR ANSWERS IN THE BACK OF THE BOOK. Then, if you got something wrong, go back and try to figure out the correct approach!

Want to get ahead? Here's Monday's HW:

• Feel free to do the work on separate paper; I'll give you copies of this Monday
• Monday's HW: Understanding Expected Value (Click Me!)

Thursday HW

This has been a crazy/disjointed week with the return from break (those days are always sluggish) and a surprise snow day...this means where a little behind where we want to be pacing wise, so come ready to work tomorrow and next week. Next Monday we really have to get back into the groove/routine; we've got 10.5 days of work before our next break, and we need to make the most of them. I know it's hard to stay motivated this time of year--it is for me too--but let's keep pushing each other and keep each other on top of our game.

You have two responsibilities to take care of tonight....

1.) Play with your laptop! Hopefully you're using it to check the blog right now! 

• Note: you won't need it in my class, so I guess it's up to you if you bring it to school. Check with your other AP teachers to see if you'll need it for them. 

2.) Do the extra credit homework! More practice = better preparation (and extra credit!)

• p. 363-366: 12, 24, 29, 33, 45
• 12 and 24 are similar to 11, 21, 23a shown a few blog posts below!
• For 29 try to use the independence formula....
• Does P(high BP) = P(high bp / high chol.)? That is, if we know someone has high cholesterol does it make them more/less likely to have high bp? 
• Or....
• Does P(high chol.) = P(high chol / high bp)? That is, if we know someone has high bp does it make them more/less likely to have high cholesterol?
• 33 = more independence formula
• Also, use the answers in the back of the book to help develop/strengthen your understanding for 29, 33
• Always check your answers/grade yourself for full credit! Here are 12, 24:
• 12a.) 0.62
• 12b.) 0.867
• 12c.) 0.194
• 12d.) 0.66
• *Note: b and c are conditional! And for d remember to pay attention to any overlap!
• 24a.) P(Canada given Mexico) = 0.444
• 24b.) No, going to Mexico and Canada are not disjoint; 4% of people have been to both.
• 24c.) P(Canada) = 0.19, and P(Canada/Mexico) = 0.444--Therefore, someone who has traveled to Mexico is more likely to go to Canada than a random person, so going to Canada/Mexico are not independent. 

Weds HW (**Changed from original plan**) + Vocab Quiz Tomorrow

**If you already did the textbook homework that was originally assigned for today you can do it for extra credit (due Friday)**

1.) For homework let's continue to work through the AP free response and AP multiple choice from class today....

• First, finish the 2 multiple choice, 2019 free response, and 2017 free response from class!
• The more time you put into figuring this stuff out, the better prepared you'll be! These are the types of questions we'll see on our unit test (and the AP exam)!
• Next, grade yourself! Use the info below to score each section as E, P, or I:
• 2019 Free Response:
• Part A:
• E: all 3 probabilities calculated correctly (with work shown for aii, aiii)
• P: 2 of 3 calculated correctly
• I: none or 1 of the 3 calculated correctly
• ai.) 0.0636
• aii.) 0.5864
• aiii.) 0.12
• Part B: 
• E: states independent, writes in context, supports using probabilities  from the table
• b.) Yes, the events of being a person whose response is never and being a woman ARE independent because P(N/W) = 0.12 = P(N) = 0.12.
• Here are some other mathematical approaches:
• Part C: 
• E: calculates correct probability of 4 or 5 will always take medicine 
• P: calculates probability of 5 taking medicine correctly, but fails to multiply by number of arrangements (5) for 4 people taking medicine
• c.) 0.24149
• Here's a link to the full scoring rubric:
• 2019 Scoring Rubric (scroll down to #3)
• 2017 Free Response:
• Part A:
• E: must satisfy the following 3 components:
• indicates normality and parameters (mean, st. dev)
• This can be done by labeling mu, sigma, and normalcdf, or by showing a sketch that identifies the mean in the middle and labels at least 1 st. dev. above or below (128 or 138)
• indicates boundary/direction
• This can be done by labeling "lower, upper" in a normalcdf calculation and/or by labeling the lower bound and shading the correct direction in a sketch
• calculates correct probability = 0.2119
• Part B:
• E: correct probability calculated AND supporting work is shown
• If tree diagram is used, show it, multiplication across branches is implied
• MUST show addition of values from tree
• P: correct answer, insufficient work (ie doesn't show the addition)
• P: switches probabilities for J, K in tree diagram but all other work is correct
• Answer = 0.4007
• Part C:
• E: correct probability calculated AND supporting work for conditional probability shown
• Answer = 0.3707
• Here's a link to the full scoring rubric:
• 2017 Scoring Rubric (scroll to question #3)
• 2 AP MC:
• 1.) B
• *Note: look at the quesiton--this is a conditional probabliity!
• 2.) D

2,) Chapter 15 Vocab Quiz Tomorrow!

• Much of the vocab on tomorrow's quiz repeats from our last (ch. 14) quiz, so use that to study!
• Equally likely events
• Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive
• Complement
• Sample Space
• Probability
• Law of Large Numbers
• Union
• Intersection
• Independent Events
• New (ch. 15) vocab)
• Conditional Probability
• Venn Diagram (when do we use it?)
• Tree Diagram (when do we use it?)
• Given 5 questions determine which do/do not require the use of conditional probability
• With replacement vs. without replacement

Monday/Tuesday

For those of you who were out today, in class we:

• Looked at a "universal" application of tree diagrams with medical testing (stamp)
• Notes/discussion:
• How do we determine if events are independent using probability?

Tomorrow in class we'll do some AP FR and AP MC (in groups). Then, Wednesday it's on to chapter 16!

**We will have our chapter 15 vocab quiz to start class on Wednesday.**

Monday Homework: p. 363-366: 12, 24, 29, 33, 45

• This assignment is due/will be checked Wednesday!
• 12 and 24 are similar to 11, 21, 23a shown in the blog post below!
• For 24c look at today's notes about "equations and displays"--there are two ways you can approach this....
• For 29 try to use the independence formula....
• Does P(high BP) = P(high bp / high chol.)? That is, if we know someone has high cholesterol does it make them more/less likely to have high bp? 
• Or....
• Does P(high chol.) = P(high chol / high bp)? That is, if we know someone has high bp does it make them more/less likely to have high cholesterol?
• 33 = more independence formula
• Also, use the answers in the back of the book to help develop/strengthen your understanding for 29, 33
• Always check your answers/grade yourself for full credit! Here are 12, 24:
• 12a.) 0.62
• 12b.) 0.867
• 12c.) 0.194
• 12d.) 0.66
• *Note: b and c are conditional! And for d remember to pay attention to any overlap!
• 24a.) P(Canada given Mexico) = 0.444
• 24b.) No, going to Mexico and Canada are not disjoint; 4% of people have been to both.
• 24c.) P(Canada) = 0.19, and P(Canada/Mexico) = 0.444--Therefore, someone who has traveled to Mexico is more likely to go to Canada than a random person, so going to Canada/Mexico are not independent. 

Chapter 15 Vocab List: Quiz Weds

• All words from our ch. 14 quiz are free game! Especially....
• Equally likely events
• Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive
• Complement
• Sample Space
• Probability
• Law of Large Numbers
• Union
• Intersection
• Conditional Probability
• Independent Events
• Venn Diagram (when do we use it?)
• Tree Diagram (when do we use it?)
• Given 5 questions determine which do/do not require the use of conditional probability
• With replacement vs. without replacement

Happy Thanksgiving!

First and foremost, have an AMAZING Thanksgiving break! Enjoy it! It doesn't matter what you're doing--maybe you're going to a cousin's/aunt's/grandparents house, maybe to a friends house, maybe you're just staying home with your immediate family, or maybe you're doing nothing at all--no matter what you're doing take some time to reflect and think about the good that you can be Thankful for. We all always have something good, something positive we can appreciate.

I am thankful for all of you. I'm thankful that I get to come to school each day and have an absolute blast hanging out and doing a bunch of math problems with you all. I appreciate that literally every single AP Stat student this year is generally engaged, focused, and attentive inside the classroom. 

(Many of us need to improve our work ethic outside the classroom; the 100% you all give for 46 minutes each day is awesome, but it's the effort outside the classroom that separates great students from average/good students. If you're not happy with your grade/performance in AP Stat thus far, it's not your work inside the classroom you need to improve, it's your commitment outside and the work you put in to develop your understanding that has to get better.) Anyway, we'll save that rant for another day. For real though, I truly am lucky to be able to work with this group of students. I've had to deal with some personal stress this year, and it's always nice to be able to come to school and take a mental break and have a great time with you peeps. So thank you.

Now, onto that assignment I'm making you do over break..... :)

Homework = be sure to complete your TAKE HOME QUIZ DUE MONDAY (12/2)!

• No excuses.
• USE YOUR NOTES AND OTHER RESOURCES!
• Don't just try these "from memory" and hope it's right--use your notes to make sure you earn the best score you possibly can!
• This is our biggest quiz grade thus far, so be sure to put in max effort and earn your best quiz grade yet!
• If you need a copy, here you go:
• Thanksgiving Break Take Home Quiz 2019 (Click Me!)

What about that book work we didn't discuss?

• Here are the solutions to ALL of the bookwork problems that were assigned Monday night.
• Definitely take a look, see where you were on the right track/got off track, and use these to help strengthen your understanding!
• We will have a quiz based on tree diagrams/conditional the week we come back, so the more effort you put into strengthening your understanding now, the better off you'll be!

Lastly, want to get a head start and do some of Monday's HW? Here you go!

• Monday Homework: p. 363-366: 12, 24, 29, 33, 45
• 12 and 24 are similar to 11, 21, 23a shown above!
• You can also do 45!
• On Monday we will talk/learn about independence, which is what questions 29, 33 deal with, so you might hold off on those....
• Read:
• Bottom of p. 350 (Independence) 
• More on p. 352  and then p. 353-354

Monday HW!

1.) Monday's HW:

• Page 363: 11, 21, 23a, 35/37, 39/41
• 35 and 37 use the same context, that's why they're listed that way (35/37). Same for 39 and 41.
• We will learn how to do 35/37 and 39/41 in class on Monday, but you could do 11, 21, and 23a based on the conditional probability formula we developed in class.

2.) Bonus Assignment = more practice identifying conditional probability!

• Read each question below
• Determine which questions are conditional probability; for the ones that are, please write the correct conditional notation "in words."
• This is due tomorrow (Tuesday). Your (amount of) extra credit will be based on accuracy/correctness, not just effort. 
• This will be collected tomorrow. 
• *Note/Hint: everyone on the Titanic is a passenger (even the crew), so you cannot have "given passenger" for any of your answers. Passenger = same as randomly selected person 
• This means that all of your conditional notation should involve these words: survived, died, first class, second class, third class, crew

3.) TAKE HOME QUIZ!

• Your "Thanksgiving Break Take Home quiz" is due Monday, 12/2. 
• No excuses.
• USE YOUR NOTES AND OTHER RESOURCES!
• Take advantage of the fact that this is a take home quiz! It's our biggest quiz grade thus far, so be sure to put in max effort and earn your best quiz grade yet!