Happy Thanksgiving!

First and foremost, have an AMAZING Thanksgiving break! Enjoy it! It doesn't matter what you're doing--maybe you're going to a cousin's/aunt's/grandparents house, maybe to a friends house, maybe you're just staying home with your immediate family, or maybe you're doing nothing at all--no matter what you're doing take some time to reflect and think about the good that you can be Thankful for. We all always have something good, something positive we can appreciate.

I am thankful for all of you. I'm thankful that I get to come to school each day and have an absolute blast hanging out and doing a bunch of math problems with you all. I appreciate that literally every single AP Stat student this year is generally engaged, focused, and attentive inside the classroom. 

(Many of us need to improve our work ethic outside the classroom; the 100% you all give for 46 minutes each day is awesome, but it's the effort outside the classroom that separates great students from average/good students. If you're not happy with your grade/performance in AP Stat thus far, it's not your work inside the classroom you need to improve, it's your commitment outside and the work you put in to develop your understanding that has to get better.) Anyway, we'll save that rant for another day. For real though, I truly am lucky to be able to work with this group of students. I've had to deal with some personal stress this year, and it's always nice to be able to come to school and take a mental break and have a great time with you peeps. So thank you.

Now, onto that assignment I'm making you do over break..... :)

Homework = be sure to complete your TAKE HOME QUIZ DUE MONDAY (12/2)!

• No excuses.
• USE YOUR NOTES AND OTHER RESOURCES!
• Don't just try these "from memory" and hope it's right--use your notes to make sure you earn the best score you possibly can!
• This is our biggest quiz grade thus far, so be sure to put in max effort and earn your best quiz grade yet!
• If you need a copy, here you go:
• Thanksgiving Break Take Home Quiz 2019 (Click Me!)

What about that book work we didn't discuss?

• Here are the solutions to ALL of the bookwork problems that were assigned Monday night.
• Definitely take a look, see where you were on the right track/got off track, and use these to help strengthen your understanding!
• We will have a quiz based on tree diagrams/conditional the week we come back, so the more effort you put into strengthening your understanding now, the better off you'll be!

Lastly, want to get a head start and do some of Monday's HW? Here you go!

• Monday Homework: p. 363-366: 12, 24, 29, 33, 45
• 12 and 24 are similar to 11, 21, 23a shown above!
• You can also do 45!
• On Monday we will talk/learn about independence, which is what questions 29, 33 deal with, so you might hold off on those....
• Read:
• Bottom of p. 350 (Independence) 
• More on p. 352  and then p. 353-354

Monday HW!

1.) Monday's HW:

• Page 363: 11, 21, 23a, 35/37, 39/41
• 35 and 37 use the same context, that's why they're listed that way (35/37). Same for 39 and 41.
• We will learn how to do 35/37 and 39/41 in class on Monday, but you could do 11, 21, and 23a based on the conditional probability formula we developed in class.

2.) Bonus Assignment = more practice identifying conditional probability!

• Read each question below
• Determine which questions are conditional probability; for the ones that are, please write the correct conditional notation "in words."
• This is due tomorrow (Tuesday). Your (amount of) extra credit will be based on accuracy/correctness, not just effort. 
• This will be collected tomorrow. 
• *Note/Hint: everyone on the Titanic is a passenger (even the crew), so you cannot have "given passenger" for any of your answers. Passenger = same as randomly selected person 
• This means that all of your conditional notation should involve these words: survived, died, first class, second class, third class, crew

3.) TAKE HOME QUIZ!

• Your "Thanksgiving Break Take Home quiz" is due Monday, 12/2. 
• No excuses.
• USE YOUR NOTES AND OTHER RESOURCES!
• Take advantage of the fact that this is a take home quiz! It's our biggest quiz grade thus far, so be sure to put in max effort and earn your best quiz grade yet!

Weekend HW = AP Classroom = Quiz and HW Grades!

Weekend HW = AP Classroom

1.) HW = AP Classroom Assignment = Unit 4 Progress Check MC A

• Your score = quiz grade, but also....
• Show your work (where applicable) and record your answers for each question on separate paper--this will be checked Monday as a homework grade as well!
• (This is also a backup in case your assignment does not submit for some reason, I can grade the paper stuff)
• Then, grade yourself--show corrections for any questions you got wrong!
• Here are some tips for a few of the tricky ones....
• #3: This question deals with simulation, something we have not discussed--no biggie though.
• For a simulation you want the random numbers you use to match the given probability.
• For example, if I wanted to use a simulation with random numbers for coin flips, I know the probability of getting heads (or tails) is 0.5, so I would want 5 out of the 10 (single digit) integers to represent heads, and 5 to represent tails
• So I could simulate with 0,1,2,3,4 = heads, 5,6,7,8,9 = tails
• Another example: let's say the probability of winning a game is 0.7. To simulate playing this game using digits 0-9 I would want 70% or 7 of the digits to represent winning, so:
• Winning = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6
• Losing = 7,8,9,10
• #10: This question asks if we have mutually exclusive events--for events to be mutually exclusive (aka disjoint), this means "both can't happen," or mathematically speaking, the "probability of A and B must = 0."
• So, for this question we need the general addition rule:
• We know:
• P(Brown Hair or Brown Eyes) = P(Brown Hair) + P(Brown Eyes) - P(both)
• We are given the probability of brown hair, brown eyes, and brown hair or brown eyes...
• Substitute these values into the equation above, solve for the P(both brown hair and brown eyes), and see what you get!
• If the P(both) = 0, that means "both" can't happen and they're disjoint; if you get a number, that means "both" can happen and they are not disjoint
• #11: Nothing tough here, but the answer is written as a fraction--just multiply your numerators and your denominators to match the MC option
•  #12: For this one I would draw a Venn diagram; you are given 3 of the 4 numbers for the Venn diagram...
• Again, we're back to disjoint/mutually exclusive...
• We need to find the probability of "both," or for the middle in our Venn diagram...
• If this probability (in the middle) = 0, events are disjoint/mutually exclusive
• If this probability (in the middle) is not 0, events are not disjoint/mutually exclusive
• "joint probability" = "probability of both" = "probability in the middle of the Venn diagram"
• #15: This will likely be the toughest one; this question is very formulaic, and is based on the conditional probability formula we learned today.....
• First, write the conditional notation (in words) for the given 37.5%--this represents the probability of "___ given ____."
• Now, consider the conditional probability formula....
• P(A given B) = P(A and B)/(P/B)
• In this example we have the numbers for the left side, "A given B," and for the denominator...
• Sub in those values and then solve for the numerator, "A and B"

2.) Bonus Assignment = more practice identifying conditional probability!

• Read each question below
• Determine which questions are conditional probability; for the ones that are, please write the correct conditional notation "in words"
• (Same as last night's directions)
• You can write all answers on separate paper or in your notes....
• This is due Tuesday (I'l have paper copies in class Monday).
• Your extra credit will be based on accuracy/correctness, not just effort. 

Monday's HW:

• Page 363: 11, 21, 23a, 35/37, 39/41
• 35 and 37 use the same context, that's why they're listed that way (35/37). Same for 39 and 41.
• We will learn how to do 35/37 and 39/41 in class on Monday, but you could do 11, 21, and 23a based on the conditional probability formula we developed in class.

Thursday HW + Weekend HW

Tonight's HW:

• Read each of the 6 questions below (or at the bottom of the paper you got in class)--some of these are conditional probabilities, some are not.

• Task #1: determine which questions are conditional, AND for the ones that are, write the correct conditional notation (P(____/_____)
• Remember, the "given" is the information we know to be true 

• Task #2: Complete the following in your textbook and grade your work (answers below)!
• Page 363-364: 6, 20

• HW Answers to Grade Yourself:
• I am not going to post the conditional probability answers because I want to discuss these in class
• 6a.) 0.06
• 6b.) 0.50
• 6c.) 0.94
• 20a.) 0.632
• 20b.) 0.140
• 20c.) 0.003
• 20d.) 0.624

When's Day HW!

Please complete the following in your textbook tonight:

Page 362-364: 1, 3, 5, 19

• 1 = define sample space = list all possible outcomes
• Ex: 2A: S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}
• Ex: 2C: S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}
• 3, 5 are like today's "Stat/Calc" and "Soccer/BBall" slides!
• 19 is like our "committee" or the marbles question--here you have to think realistically: if you were checking for good/dead batteries, after you took one out you would NOT put it back--so this is "without replacement!
• You must ALWAYS CHECK YOUR ANSWERS (back of the book)! If you don't, no full credit!

And that's it! Short blog post today! On to some new probability tomorrow--see you there!

Two's Day HW + Study!

1.) Tonight please complete the "top left slide" questions about marbles (also listed below).

• The marbles are being drawn without replacement!
• Check all your answers on the slide below:

2.) Vocab Quiz Tomorrow--STUDY! (10 min)! 

• For this chapter you are responsible for much of the vocabulary; use the glossary in your book (ch. 14) and the images below to help--here's what you need to know....

• Probability: long run relative frequency of an event, chance some event happens, always between 0 and 1
• Law of Large Numbers: the long run relative frequency (of an event) gets closer to the true (theoretical) probability as the number of trials increases
• Law of Averages: this is the idea that an outcome will eventually be "due." This is not true for independent events. (For example, if the last 100 spins of a roulette wheel landed on black, this does not mean the next spin is "due" to land on red." Spins are independent, so the probability the next spin lands on red is still 18/38!)
• Complement (of an event): see image below
• Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive: in notes
• Independent (Events): in notes
• Sample Space: see image below
• Equally Likely Outcomes: events/outcomes that have the same probability to occur
• Union: or, also know the symbol (see below
• Intersection: and, also know the symbol (see below)
• There are also 3 questions where you have to determine if two events are independent, disjoint, neither, or both (but never both), like our weekend hw. (Key below).
• Check all this out for your vocab quiz!

Monday = Studyyyyyyy

1.) MATH QUIZ TOMORROW (probability = ch. 14) Study! How, you ask?

1. Complete the practice quiz linked below. Show all work on separate paper (or print it), then bring this in for extra credit hw!
• Tomorrow's quiz looks a lot like this practice....
• Ch. 14 Practice Quiz!
2. Want more? Try these! More practice = better quiz grade
• Page 341-342: 19ab, 27, 31, 33

2.) Vocab Quiz Wednesday (10 min)! For this chapter you are responsible for much of the vocabulary--here's what you need to know....

• Probability: long run relative frequency of an event, chance some event happens, always between 0 and 1
• Law of Large Numbers
• Law of Averages
• Complement (of an event)
• Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive
• Independent (Events)
• Sample Space: the set of all possible outcomes for an event
• Equally Likely Outcomes
• Union: or, also know the symbol
• Intersection: and, also know the symbol

After our quiz it's on to chapter 15 and some more probability! See you there!

Oh, and here's the key to our weekend homework in case it helps:

Weekend HW!

1.) Weekend HW: Please complete the "More Probability Practice" problems (about voter turnout) and "Independent and Disjoint Events" multiple choice that were provided in class. Lost yours? Here you go!

• Note: these questions talk about voting "last week" (because this is old), but should say "voted in the 2016 election." Don't get confused by the "last week" part. 
• Weekend HW! (Click Me)

2.) ALWAYS CHECK YOUR ANSWERS (when possible):

• "More Probability Practice" Key:
• a.) 0.0915
• b.) 0.041
• c.) 0.0501
• d.) 0.959
• e.) 0.9085
• Ind/Disjoint MC:
• We'll check these in class on Monday.

3.) Last chance for Bonus Stamps (Due Monday): + 4 stamps

• Answer the question below (#7 from our slides about roulette) "the long way."
• You must show ALL work
• Your answer should match our answer from Thursday's class when we did this "the short way" 
• Question:
• Suppose we play roulette 4 times...
• What is the probability that the 4 spins are not all red?
• This means we could have 0 red, 1 red, 2 red, or 3 red (just not all 4 red)
• Your challenge:
• Calculate the probability of 0 red, exactly 1 red, exactly 2 red, 3 red
• Add these for the probability that our 4 spins are "not all red"
• Answer should = 0.94966
• 

4.) Vocab! Next week (Weds?) we'll have a chapter 14 vocab quiz. For this chapter you are responsible for much of the vocabulary--here's what you need to know....

• Probability: long run relative frequency of an event, chance some event happens, always between 0 and 1
• Law of Large Numbers
• Law of Averages
• Complement (of an event)
• Disjoint/Mutually Exclusive
• Independent (Events)
• Sample Space: the set of all possible outcomes for an event
• Equally Likely Outcomes
• Union: or
• Intersection: and

HW + Bonus Stamps!

Tonight please... 

1.) Complete the rest of you "Probability: The Basics" packet (the one with the spinner on it)

• Probability Intro HW (Click Me!)

2.) USE A DIFFERENT COLOR PEN/PENCIL TO GRADE YOUR WORK! ALWAYS! (key is linked below)

• Probability Intro HW KEY! (Click Me)

**You will not earn full credit for your homework if you do not check your answers and grade yourself!**

Bonus Stamps (Due Monday): + 4 stamps

• Answer the question below (#7 from our slides about roulette) "the long way."
• You must show ALL work
• Your answer should match our answer from Thursday's class when we did this "the short way" 
• Question:
• Suppose we play roulette 4 times...
• What is the probability that the 4 spins are not all red?
• This means we could have 0 red, 1 red, 2 red, or 3 red (just not all 4 red)
• Your challenge:
• Calculate the probability of 0 red, exactly 1 red, exactly 2 red, 3 red
• Add these for the probability that our 4 spins are "not all red"
• Answer should = 0.94966

Tomorrow in class we'll get into some of the vocabulary and concepts you read about in the textbook....see you there!

Wednesday HW!

You must always check your answers/correct your homework to receive full credit. This is the policy for the remainder of the school year. If you do not do so, you will not be given full credit. 

Why? (is Carofano making me do this)

• Learning = making mistakes and correcting them
• Learning = using a given answer to work backwards and develop your understanding
• That's the whole point of our homework--to learn and practice for our quizzes tests!

Wednesday Homework:

1.) Please complete the following in your textbook:

• Page 340: 11, 13
• Page 342: 28abcd, 29abd 

2.) CHECK YOUR ANSWERS! Use a different color pen/pencil to grade yourself/make corrections. If you got something wrong, figure out why! That's how we get better at stuff!

• 11, 13, and 29 can be found in the back of the book.
• Here are the answers to 28:
• 28a.) lemon and lemon and lemon = (0.3)^3 = 0.027
• 28b.) no fruit and no fruit and no fruit = (0.5)^3 = 0.125
• 28c.) bell and bell and bell = (0.1)^3 = 0.001
• 28d.) no bell and no bell and no bell = (0.9)^3 = 0.729

Bonus Stamps (Due Friday): + 4 stamps

• Answer the question below (#7 from our slides about roulette) "the long way."
• You must show ALL work
• Your answer should match our answer from Thursday's class when we did this "the short way" 
• Question:
• Suppose we play roulette 4 times...
• What is the probability that the 4 spins are not all red?
• This means we could have 0 red, 1 red, 2 red, or 3 red (just not all 4 red)
• Your challenge:
• Calculate the probability of 0 red, exactly 1 red, exactly 2 red, 3 red
• Add these for the probability that our 4 spins are "not all red"
• Answer should = 0.94966

Tuesday = Actual Math Homework!

Yay for a new unit! Yay for math!

Tonight please... 

1.) Complete questions 1-10 and all of 12

• Probability Intro HW (Click Me!)

2.) USE A DIFFERENT COLOR PEN/PENCIL TO GRADE YOUR WORK! (key is linked below)

• Probability Intro HW KEY (1-10, 12)

**You will not earn full credit for your homework if you do not check your answers and grade yourself!**

Tomorrow in class we'll continue to focus on "the math," as we work through the rest of our slide examples. We'll also discuss any questions from the book work that was due today (p. 340: 9, 17, 23), and then we'll discuss independent and disjoint events if we have time.

Our goal will be to have a probability quiz on either Friday or Monday and to finish all of chapters 14/15 before Thanksgiving break, then ultimately test on probability right before winter break.

Spirit Week, Sub Work, Weekend

*The AP classroom MC deadline was extended to 7:00 am tomorrow for those of you who had "technical difficulties."

Everyone have fun tonight! Sleep a little!

Unfortunately I'm out tomorrow so I'm going to miss the fun--take some pictures for me! 

Here's the plan for tomorrow--Friday's sub work + weekend HW:

• Please complete the probability intro notes/practice packet! The more you get done in class, the less you have to do this weekend!
• Parts 1-3 are graded as classwork and will be collected on Tuesday
• Part 4 (reading questions = notes) and the textbook problems will be graded as a double homework on Tuesday
• Just read all of the directions!
• If you were out Friday, get this done! Here's the stuff (you can print this or write all answers on separate paper):
• Probability Intro Notes/Practice

When we get back to class Tuesday it's time for a new unit--probability! Be ready for lots of math problems on Tuesday. Bring your calculator.I can't wait!

Until then, have an awesome Pep-Rally-Day and long weekend. Rest up, have fun, and come back recharged and ready to ace another unit of AP Stat! 

TEST TOMORROW!

1.) Your AP Classroom assignment must be completed before Midnight!

• The multiple choice (18 questions) count as a QUIZ GRADE!
• The free response is just offered as a tool for you to use to study--this will not count as a grade!
• Just try the AP Classroom FR on separate paper and use the key below to check your work--or, at least read through this key (even if you didn't do them)!
• Unit 2 Progress Check: Free Response KEY! (Click Me)

2.) STUDY! Tomorrow = AP Free Response and Multiple Choice Test

• Here's how to study:
• 1.) Complete the AP Classroom assignment
• 2.) Review all of your writing interpretations--this test will have a good amount of writing, but it's all stuff we've seen...
• Describe an association (reference r if possible)
• Is a linear model appropriate?
• Interpret Slope
• Interpret Y Intercept
• Interpret R^2 (coefficient of determination)
• Interpret the meaning of a residual
• Of course do this all in context!
• 3.) More practice problems you can use to study: if you complete some/all of these on separate paper and turn them in tomorrow you will be given extra credit!
• Page 215: #9, 10
• Check answers in the back of the book for 9, you can send me a Remind message or show me your work in person next week for 10 to check
• Pages 245-253: (review of Part II/Unit II): 1, 3, 7ab, 11abcd, 15acd, 17, 27, 29abc, 39
• Here's a list of what you need to know for your test:
• *There is no create scatterplot/create residual plot/find equation on your graphing calculator stuff on your test tomorrow!
• Make predictions given an LSRL equation
• Calculate residuals given the LSRL and an actual value (or given a graph)
• Resid = actual - predicted
• Look at our rollercoaster stamp!
• Find an actual (y) value given a residual and the LSRL equation (or given a graph of residuals)
• Resid = actual - predicted
• Look at our rollercoaster stamp! 
• Interpret the meaning of a residual, in context
• More rollercoaster stamp! Also was in 47 in a past hw!
• Describe an association
• Context, Shape, direction, strength, reference r
• Find r given R^2
• Take square root of R^2, check scatterplot and/or slope to see if r is positive or negative
• Determine if a linear model is appropriate
• Scatterplot is roughly linear, residual plot has no pattern/random scatter, 2 quantitative variables--be sure to specify which graph you're talking about when you write this!
• Read a computer output 
• We have notes about this--# of passenger seats v. operating cost per hour
• Write the LSRL equation algebraically
• Notes about SAT scores on this! Remember, you're given the formulas...
• Interpret slope, in context
• Always...
• Interpret y-int, in context
• Always...
• Interpret R^2, in context
• Remember, % of changes in y that are explained by changes in x
• Also be sure to look at question 4 about size of homes and electricity useage from Monday's classwork (passed back today)--the answer was A!
• Predict using a re-expressed model with logs
• This is what we discussed today; it's on your test
• If you were out come prepared! No excuses!
• Also AP classroom MC #16 (I think it's #16)
• Understand how adding/removing a point influences slope, intercept, and correlation 
• This was the focus of Monday's classwork!
• We also have 3 slides in our notes
• Pay close attention to if we're adding/removing the points and if the correlation was negative or positive to start

After tomorrow's test it's on to probability--until then, STUDY! Start the 2nd quarter off strong!

Monday + Tuesday = Study!

1.) Your AP Classroom assignment has been assigned...

• The multiple choice (18 questions) is DUE WEDNESDAY at midnight and counts as a QUIZ GRADE!
• *I have not taught you how to work with re-expressed equations to make predictions--this shows up in question 16
• You may be able to figure this out depending on your past math experience, but maybe not--we'll look at this on Wednesday.
• Worst case, save this one until Weds. 
• The free response is just offered as a tool for you to use to study--this will not count as a grade!
• Just try the FR on separate paper and use the key below to check your work!
• Unit 2 Progress Check: Free Response KEY! (Click Me)

2.) STUDY! We have two tests coming up this week to start our quarter...let's prepare ourselves for success! 

• Wednesday = Vocabulary Test
• Part 1 = Matching (vocab list below)
• Part 2 = given a scatter plot identify the points with the most/least leverage, biggest/smallest residual, highest/lowest x or y values, identify outliers, and understand how points will affect the correlation, slope, and/or y-int
• Part 3 = write the equation of the LSRL given a computer output
• Vocab List:
• Scatterplot
• Explanatory Variable
• Response Variable
• Correlation
• Positive/Negative Association
• Lurking Variable
• y
• y-hat
• Correlation
• Know what does/does not change correlation
• Slope
• Y Intercept
• Coefficient of Determination/R^2
• Least Squares Regression Line (why is it called that/what does "best fit" mean)
• Outlier
• Influential Point
• Leverage
• Residual (formula, definition, what does it look like on a graph)
• Over/Underestimate
• Residual Plot
• Extrapolation
• Interpolation
• Thursday = AP Free Response and Multiple Choice Test
• Here's how to study:
• 1.) Complete the AP Classroom assignment
• 2.) Review all of your writing interpretations--this test will have a good amount of writing, but it's all stuff we've seen...
• Describe an association (reference r if possible)
• Is a linear model appropriate?
• Interpret Slope
• Interpret Y Intercept
• Interpret R^2 (coefficient of determination)
• Interpret the meaning of a residual
• Of course do this all in context!
• 3.) More practice problems you can use to study....
• Page 215: #9, 10
• Check answers in the back of the book for 9, you can send me a Remind message or show me your work in person next week for 10 to check
• Pages 245-253: (review of Part II/Unit II): 1, 3, 7ab, 11abcd, 15acd, 17, 27, 29abc, 39

Weekend = AP Classroom!

1.) Your next AP Classroom assignment has been assigned (MC and FR)...

• The multiple choice (18 questions) is DUE WEDNESDAY at midnight and counts as a QUIZ GRADE!
• *I have not taught you how to work with re-expressed equations to make predictions--this shows up in question 16
• You may be able to figure this out depending on your past math experience, but maybe not--we'll look at this on Wednesday.
• Worst case, save this one until Weds. 
• The free response is just offered as a tool for you to use to study--this will not count as a grade!
• Just try the FR on separate paper and use the key below to check your work!
• Unit 2 Progress Check: Free Response KEY! (Click Me)

2.) STUDY! We have two tests coming up next week, so get a head start on your test prep!

• Open Ended Test: how can I study/practice? (Thursday, MC and Free Response)
• 1.) Complete the AP Classroom assignment
• 2.) Review all of your writing interpretations--this test will have a good amount of writing, but it's all stuff we've seen...
• Describe an association (reference r if possible)
• Is a linear model appropriate?
• Interpret Slope
• Interpret Y Intercept
• Interpret R^2 (coefficient of determination)
• Interpret the meaning of a residual
• Of course do this all in context!
• 3.) More practice problems you can use to study....
• Page 215: #9, 10
• Check answers in the back of the book for 9, you can send me a Remind message or show me your work in person next week for 10 to check
• Pages 245-253: (review of Part II/Unit II): 1, 3, 7ab, 11abcd, 15acd, 17, 27, 29abc, 39
• Vocabulary Test (Wednesday, all matching): Here's your list....
• Scatterplot
• Explanatory Variable
• Response Variable
• Correlation
• Positive/Negative Association
• Lurking Variable
• y
• y-hat
• Correlation
• Know what does/does not change correlation
• Slope
• Y Intercept
• Coefficient of Determination/R^2
• Least Squares Regression Line (why is it called that/what does "best fit" mean)
• Outlier
• Influential Point
• Leverage
• Residual (formula, definition, what does it look like on a graph)
• Over/Underestimate
• Residual Plot
• Extrapolation
• Interpolation

•