Last Blog Post of 2019-20 (probably)

Hey everyone! This will (most likely) be the last blog post for 2019-20–and it's a long one--but please read it all. We will move primarily to Google Classroom and our virtual office hours (via Zoom) for the remainder of our distance learning (I think, we're all figuring this out together, as we go). Here's what you need for distance learning:

The most important thing to me, is first, to acknowledge that this is a tough time for all of us; for you, this is a generation defining experience. I know many of us, including me for sure, miss school and wish we could be back in the classrooms together; I know our seniors are at risk of missing out on exciting, hard-earned events like prom and graduation--I feel terrible for you, and I'll keep hoping that you get to enjoy those things somehow. Like I said, this is a tough time.

On that note, let's try to do our best to work together, to see each other in Zoom, to keep laughing together while we learn, and to allow school to be an outlet for us. Now it's time to truly enjoy learning--that's what I encourage you all to do, enjoy and focus on learning. On that note, I don't want you to be stressed by grades--we have enough to stress about right now. Yes, of course there will still be grades--but here's the tentative grading policy for our distance learning:

• All grades for missing assignments or scores lower than 50 that occurred during the confidence intervals and hypothesis test units will be changed to a 50 (since we're not in school with the ability to make these up). (EHHS policy)
• All assignments will be from AP Classroom, attached in Google classroom, or maybe through Khan Academy
• Our grades will be heavily based on participation
• All free response will have a key or rubric posted; you will complete the FR, score it, and will earn a 100% for doing so.
• I might even ask you to send a picture of something cool or try a yoga/exercise Youtube video, or some other random fun thing--who knows! (if I do, it'll be a 100% or exempt, no 0's)
• Some assignments will be scored based on accuracy
• MC may be scored for accuracy and/or effort/completion
• These scored assignments will be assigned through AP classroom or attached in Google classroom
• Some questions may require you to show work
• (So grading MC is the same as it's always been)
• Not all MC will be graded this way--some may also have keys posted and you'll grade it--I'll always let you know how an assignment will be scored.
• I will not give 0's. The lowest score you will receive (after the first 2 weeks) is a 50%.
• This system should ensure that all of us can succeed, grade wise, during distance learning--unless you have an A+ average already (great job!), everyone should earn their highest grades during this time
• Again, this is because I don't want us to be stressing about grades, I want us to be intrinsically motivated to learn, as well as focus on our social/emotional health

It's on us, as individuals, to be self motivated and to push ourselves to work, to learn, and to practice in this distance learning environment. I hope you do that, and I hope we perform well on the AP Exam--but that is not even close to the most important thing right now. Just do the best you can and give your best effort for the 45 minutes of the test. (Per Mr. Ryan we are all still expected to take the AP exam; no pressure though, and you don't have to wear the uniform!)\

We start Monday! Our first 3 assignments will be review, so we can get comfortable with our new situation and get back into AP Stat mode; then, we'll start with some "new stuff" on Thursday.

Here are all the links you need so we can communicate! Please share this blog post with your families as well.

• Google Classroom Code: lktdoco
• The first letter is a lowercase "el," not an "eye."
• Click Here to Open Google Classroom!

• Remind
• You can always contact me via Remind with questions!
• Class code (for Remind app): @hornetstat
• Or, text @hornetstat to 81010
• Click Here to Open Remind!

• Zoom for office hours: here's the link...
• Office Hours: 2:00 to 3:00 daily
• Click Here to Open Carofano's Office Hours via Zoom!
• This link should take you directly to my office hours, but....
• Password (if it asks): 485522
• Meeting ID: 695-910-2672
• Office hours are not mandatory. I expect to see each of you at least once each week, but the office hours are a place where you can come for help/ask questions.
• We can play with the idea of doing live lessons via Zoom if we think that will work better--remember, we have to figure all of this out together.
• It is expected that you will attend our office hours on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday; please do, so we can discuss expectations, the plan for distance learning, expectations for the group chat, etc.
• If you cannot make it for some legit reason (like work every day, but I hope you're social distancing), please let me know via Remind.
• You will earn a 100% on a classwork grade for attending. 

• AP Classroom
• Click Here to Open AP Classroom!
• Many of our assignments will be (assigned) through AP classroom.
• Your first 3 assignments (Mon-Weds) are all in AP classroom
• AP Classroom will also offer practice tests and tons of other review questions we can use

• College Board YouTube
• Click Here for the College Board YouTube Page!
• This YouTube page has videos posted by College Board (for all courses) for distance learning!
• This will be one of our primary sources for learning "new stuff," along with office hours and Khan Academy.
• Note: units 8 and 9 are NOT on the AP exam (and that's what they're uploading first for AP Stat).

• Khan Academy
• Class Code: D3XMAP93
• Khan will also be a source for instructional videos and practice; some assignments may be posted through Khan
• Be sure to sign up using the code above! (And use your same school email as with Google Classroom)
• Click Here to Open Khan!

• Carofano's Google Voice Number: 860-384-7175
• "Hey! It's distance learning...I know this feels crrazzzzy, but here's my (Google Voice) number, so call/text me maybe..." 
• (I hope you were singing that in your head)
• Google Voice will not use your actual phone number or mine.

• Lastly, here's the link to the East Hartford Distance Learning Plan for all courses:
• East Hartford Distance Learning Plan!

A month(ish) off: What to Do?

First and foremost, take care of yourself and help take care of your families while you're out. Wash those hands. I can't wait to get back to normalcy and see you all again--but until then, here's some stuff:

It will be impossible for us to cover everything as originally planned for the AP exams. As information about exams is released I will, of course, keep you posted. The only thing I DO know is that we will not be able to recoup all the time we lose, so if you want to do well on this exam (and I reallllly hope you do), then you HAVE to use some of this time off to review the "old stuff" and start to try to teach yourself some new stuff.

Best Ways to Use This Time for AP Stat:

A. Do your Take Home Test: Due the day we're back (see below)

• Print this or just do/show all work/answers on separate paper
• Be sure to #each question if using separate paper
• By doing this as a take home it will allow us to start a new chapter when return, and to some degree, "start fresh," rather than having to finish up anything from chapters 19-21.
• See the review below (#4) if you want to do some practice/review before the take home test:
• Coronavirus "Break"--Take Home Test (Click Me!)

B. Start reviewing for the AP exam so we can just focus on "new stuff" when we're back

• Re-organize or even create an outline of your notes!
• Do a practice test! (some are linked on the right)
• Do the 2019 AP Free Response Questions (Click Me!)
• Then, score your answers with the 2019 FR Scoring Guidelines (Click Me!)
• Now try the 2018 Free Response Questions (Click Me!)
• Then, score your answers with the 2018 Scoring Rubric (Click Me!)

Other things to do while you're out:

1.) Makeup Work! Get it done!

• You can show me any/all missing homework assignments about confidence intervals and/or hypothesis testing for full credit as long as you have it the day we return (tentatively 3/27).

2.) I will not "formally" check this homework (originally due tomorrow--Friday, 3/13), but here it is and here's the key for some practice. Or, just use the answer key as a resource to help with your take home test.

• Types of Error HW (Click Me!)
• Types of Error HW (Key)

3.) Want to do some more review of one prop z tests and one prop z intervals? Here you go! It might be a good idea to do this before the take home test above--this was scheduled to be our homework the weekend before our test on confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for one proportion. You can do this assignment as extra credit homework.

• Ch. 19 to 21 Test Review!
• Ch. 19 to 21 Test Review KEY
• Need some more review? These AP Stat Guy videos (link on top right) review what's on our test:
• Unit 5 Videos: #6 through #13

4.) Want to get ahead? Here's what we need to learn when we return:

• 4/5 days will be learning about 2 proportion z tests and 2 proportion z intervals (for differences in proportions)--this is chapter 22 in our textbook
• Then, our next unit will be about hypothesis tests and confidence intervals for means (chapters 23-25):
• What is the t distribution? How do we find critical values for the t distribution? What are degrees of freedom?
• T Intervals (for one sample with means)
• T Tests (for one sample with means)
• 2 Sample T Intervals (2 samples, means)--for differences in means
• 2 Sample T Tests (for differences in means)
• Paired T Tests
• After that it's on to Chi Squared Tests (chapter 26)
• What is the chi squared distribution? Define characteristics
• Chi Squared Tests for Independence: how do we write hypotheses, check conditions, do the math, (conclusion is the same deal)
• If time permits: chi squared tests for goodness of fit
• Last chapter (chapter 27): T Tests and T Intervals for Slope
• This also allows us to review linear regression
• How can I try to teach myself some of this stuff?
• Read the textbook
• Use Khan Academy--they have an AP Stat course! Enter the code above
• Google/youtube videos
• (I recommend Khan)

Due Friday: Please complete the "Ch. 21: Types of Error" worksheet provided in class (or linked below).

• Types of Error HW (Click Me!)
• Always check your answers!
• Types of Error HW (Key)

Makeup Work! Get it done!

• You can show me any/all missing homework assignments about confidence intervals and/or hypothesis testing for full credit (by Monday)!
• The point of homework is to prep for our test--so doing makeup work will help you to get ready for Tuesday!
• If you did not turn int he multiple choice due yesterday be sure to get it done--this counts more than just a HW grade--it's a quiz grade!
• This is all in preparation for our upcoming test:
• Test Tuesday = Ch. 19-21 = Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests!
• IF school is closed before Tuesday I will post the test on the blog and you will be doing it as a take home. 
• Want to start studying? Here you go!
• Ch. 19 to 21 Test Review!
• Ch. 19 to 21 Test Review KEY
• Need some review! These AP Stat Guy videos (link on top right) review what's on our test:
• Unit 5 Videos: #6 through #13

Weds HW + Thurs HW

Due Friday: Please complete the "Ch. 21: Types of Error" worksheet provided in class (or linked below).

• Types of Error HW (Click Me!)
• Tonight you can do 1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, 2c, and 3a (if you want to, it's all due Friday)--we'll learn the rest tomorrow.

Tonight:

• Since there is no homework due tomorrow tonight is a great opportunity to catch up on any missing work!
• You can show me any/all missing homework assignments about confidence intervals and/or hypothesis testing for full credit (by Friday)!
• If you did not turn int he multiple choice due today (last night's homework) be sure to get it done--this counts more than just a HW grade--it's a quiz grade!
• This is all in preparation for our upcoming test:
• Test Tuesday = Ch. 19-21 = Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests!

Tomorrow we'll finish our notes on error/power/alpha/beta, then it's on to some practice Friday and Monday, test Tuesday!

2 Thangs 2night

2's Day HW:

1.) Please complete the "Chapter 19/20" MC provided in class (or linked below):

• Ch. 19/20 MC (Tuesday's HW--Click Me!)
• Do this the same way you would do MC on the AP exam--that means NO CONDITIONS, use your calculator to skip showing lots of work, and read carefully!
• #1: first, narrow down your options--you should be able to determine if the interval gets wider (A or B) or more narrow (C or D) based on the change to sample size....
• Then...diminishing returns....
• #2: use your formula sheet! (test stat = (stat - parameter)/st. error.)
• I would recommend writing the hypotheses first, so you know what # is in the Ho
• #3: use your calc, get the pvalue, consider the conclusion!
• #4: review! use your notes to calculate the sample size!
• #5: you got this. use your notes.
• #6: Again, you got this; consider yesterday's stamp or today's stamp MC #2

2.) STUDY, STUDY, STUDY--tomorrow we start with our chapter 19/20 vocab quiz! Here's the list (and it's all multiple choice):

• From our chapter 19 quiz (with the sub)--use the scantron/quiz that was passed back to study these
• Confidence Interval (used to ESTIMATE A PARAMETER based on sample statistics)
• Interpret Confidence LEVEL (if we keep taking samples this is the % of the resulting confidence intervals that will contain/correctly estimate the parameter)
• Check out your ch. 19 quiz (from the sub)--there was a multiple choice to interpret confidence level
• Critical Value
• Standard Error
• Why check for randomization?
• Why check "success failure?" -- n(p-hat) >10, n(1-phat)>10
• Point Estimate
• From ch. 20:
• Null Hypothesis
• Alternative Hypothesis
• PValue (remember...it's a probability of seeing our sample data IF THE NULL IS TRUE)
• Hypothesis Test (a statistical inference tool where we make an assumption about the value of a parameter and then determine if it's greater/less/different from the assumed value
• Alpha Level
• Reject the Ho (when do we reject Ho based on pvalue, alpha)
• Fail to Reject Ho (when do we fail to reject based on pvalue, alpha)
• Standardized Test Statistic (what is it? what does it measure?)
• Generally speaking, now how to write a conclusion for a hypothesis test....
• pvalue < alpha/significance level means we reject Ho, there IS evidence of Ha
• pvalue >alpha/significance level means we fail to reject Ho, there IS NOT evidence of Ha

Here's Monday's HW--do it outside!

• Test and Interval: Side By Side (Click Me for Monday's HW!)
• Do this on separate paper!
• Draw a line down the middle (or fold it)--create two columns
• On one side answer question one--test the hypotheses
• On the other side answer question 2--estimate the parameter with a confidence interval
• This will allow us to compare/contrast these methods!
• Now, after doing the full interval process (#2), also answer 3--use your interval to test the hypotheses from #1
• Then, lastly, at the bottom or on the back jot down some bullets for question 4!
• Always check your work!
• Test and Interval: Side by Side KEY (Click Me, Yo!)

Weekend HW--let's keep up the great work!

Weekend HW = 3 hypothesis tests!

• This weekend you have 3 FULL hypothesis tests to complete for practice!
• This is some great practice to make sure we have a strong procedural understanding--how to do a hypothesis test
• Next week we'll continue to strengthen our conceptual understanding of pvalues, hypothesis tests, and look at the connections between hypothesis tests and confidence intervals
• 3 Hypothesis Tests (Weekend HW) (Click Me, Yo!)
• So, back to the weekend homework, "full hypothesis test" means:
• Hypotheses: Ho and Ha
• Conditions: randomization, 10% condition, success/failure
• Math--name test, list zscore, pvalue, show zscore formula, sketch shaded model
• The name of the test, zscore, and pvalue should all just be copied from the calculator screen! Then go back and add the zscore formula (remember to use your formula sheet)
• Conclusion (see blog post below for a template)
• pvalue greater or less than alpha? 
• fail to reject or reject the null?
• there is or is not evidence of the Ha?
• Remember--we NEVER reference the Ho in our conclusion, just like a trial verdict never references the word "innocent" in the Ho
• Note: you are going to get some z scores that are far away from the mean and some pvalues that have "E's" in them--that's because these are actual studies, not "cookie cutter" textbook problems
• Remember, a pvalue cannot be greater than 1--because it's a probability--so be on the lookout for E's
• Weekend HW Answer Key: ALWAYS CHECK YOUR WORK!
• 3 Hypothesis Tests KEY (Click Me--Always Check Yo Work!)

Feeling Ambitious?

• Here's Monday's HW!
• Test and Interval: Side By Side (Click Me for Monday's HW!)
• Do this on separate paper!
• Draw a line down the middle (or fold it)--create two columns
• On one side answer question one--test the hypotheses
• On the other side answer question 2--estimate the parameter with a confidence interval
• This will allow us to compare/contrast these methods!
• Now, after doing the full interval process (#2), also answer 3--use your interval to test the hypotheses from #1
• Then, lastly, at the bottom or on the back jot down some bullets for question 4!

Thursday HW + Weekend HW!

Tonight's HW = Writing Conclusions!

• Writing Conclusions (for hypothesis tests)! HW (Click Me, Homie!)
• Both of these are based on types of tests we haven't learned yet--but that doesn't matter! The conclusion is always written the same way!
• Compare p-value to alpha
• Decide if you reject/fail to reject the null
• State whether there is or is not evidence of the alternative
• Copy the wording from the question (for #1) or the Ha (for #2) for your context!
• Answer key at the bottom of this post

Weekend HW = 3 hypothesis tests!

• This weekend you have 3 FULL hypothesis tests to complete for practice
• That means:
• Hypotheses: Ho and Ha
• Conditions: randomization, 10% condition, success/failure
• Math--name test, list zscore, pvalue, show zscore formula, sketch shaded model
• Conclusion (see above--tonight's HW)
• Note: you are going to get some z scores that are far away from the mean and some pvalues that have "E's" in them--that's because these are actual studies, not "cookie cutter" textbook problems

• 3 Hypothesis Tests (Weekend HW) (Click Me, Yo!)

Tonight's HW = Writing Conclusions ANSWER KEY

1. The pvalue of 0.036 is below the 5% level of significance so we reject Ho. There IS evidence to suggest that the average number of hours slept by American high school students has increased.
2. The pvalue of 0.23 is above any common alpha level (or, above the alpha level of 0.05), so we fail to reject Ho. There IS NOT evidence that there is an association between residential status and level of participation in extracurricular activities among the students at the university.

Wednesday HW

Tonight, please  complete the following in your textbook (or posted below) and check your answers (also posted below):

• Pages 470-472: 11 (all parts), 12ae, 114ad
• For 11: 
• b: "check assumptions" is the same as "check conditions"
• c: "perform mechanics" means do the math--show a shaded Normal model, p-value, and z-score
• d: use today's notes to interpret the p-value
• e: write a conclusion based on today's notes
• For 12 and 14, write hypotheses, then enter the correct information in "one prop z test" in your calculator to get the p-value (listed as p on your calculator). Lastly, write the conclusion.
• So you can skip conditions and showing all the math work, just generate p-value on your calculator.
• Use an alpha level of 5% for all conclusions!

• Homework Answer Key Linked Below
• 11, 12, 14 Textbook HW KEY (Click Me!)

Today's Takeaways--what we learned (hopefully):

1.) Showing the math work efficiently--how to use graphing calc

2.) Interpret p-value (see below)

3.) Writing conclusions for a hypothesis test

• Here's another example of interpreting the p-value based on today's stamp:
• Context: previously 37% of people were satisfied with parking lot
• We made some changes to the lot; after the changes we surveyed 200 people, and 83 were satisfied with the changes
• PValue = .094
• "IF it's true that 37% of people are satisfied with the parking there is a 9.4% chance we get a p-hat = 0.415 or higher."

• And here's the template for writing conclusions:
• Compare pvalue to alpha/significance level (given in question, or just pick 5% = .05 as your alpha/significance level)
• If p-value is less than alpha -- reject Ho
• If p-value is greater than alpha--fail to reject Ho
• Here's a template for writing your conclusions: use this for 11e, 14d, and 12e

HW

Tonight's Homework and Bonus Stamps:

• Bonus Stamp for Everyone: ACCEPTED TOMORROW ONLY
• Write the hypotheses for the bottom left slide (What song is it?)
• You can write the answers on the slide; cut it out, and I'll collect it tomorrow.
• Don't forget your name!
• Period A Additional Bonus Stamp: ACCEPTED TOMORROW ONLY
• Complete the "writing hypotheses" slide (Pay Yo' Bill and Going Away to College); write the appropriate hypotheses for each context.
• You can write the answers on the slide; cut it out, and I'll collect it tomorrow.
• Don't forget your name!

Tonight's Homework: 3 problem (shown below)

• Page 470: 7
• For 7a just jot down a couple bullets/thoughts you have
• 7b: calculate a probability! review, yay!
• 7c: show a couple bullets/thoughts
• 7d: calculate a probability and write a couple bullets
• Page 494: 23a, 27
• 23a = binomial probability review!
• For 27a you can skip conditions and interpreting the interval--just do the math (copy calc screen with name of interval and show formula)
• For 27b:
• First, write the null and alternative hypotheses
• Then, decide--based on your interval--will you reject the null or fail to reject the null hypothesis? Why?
• We'll briefly discuss answers in class tomorrow.

Monday HW = Hypotheses!

Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook (or the questions are shown below):

• Page 469-471: 1, 2, 13a, 15
• For 1, 2, and 13a your job is to write the hypotheses (only)!
• For 15a, create a confidence interval--this means conditions, math, interpret interval!
• For 15b use your interval to decide if there is an evidence in a "change in behavior" aka if the % who had never been smokers is now different from 44%.

• ALWAYS CHECK YOUR ANSWERS!
• Here's a key:
• 1a.) Ho: p = 0.3     Ha: p < 0.3
• 1b.) Ho: p = 0.5     Ha: p not equal to 0.5
• 1c.) Ho: p = 0.2    Ha: p > 0.2
• 2a.) Ho: p = 0.4    Ha: p not equal to 0.4
• 2b.) Ho: p = 0.2     Ha: p < 0.2
• 2c.) Ho: p = 0.6     Ha: p > 0.6
• 13a.) Ho: p = 0.34     Ha: p < 0.34
• 15a.)
• This is a random sample of 881 adults.
• 881 < 10% of all adults (in the U.S.)
• 881(.52)>10, 881(.48)>10
• One Prop Z Int = (48.7%, 55.3%) = .52 +/- 1.96sqrt(.52x.48/881)
• We are 95% confident that the proportion of adults (in 1995) who had never been smokers falls between 48.7% and 55.3% based on this sample of adults.
• 15b.) The interval DOES provide evidence of a change in behavior above Americans because 44% does NOT fall within the interval. (Our interval suggests that the % of Americans who had never been smokers has increased, and is now above 44%