Monday HW/Quiz Tomorrow!

Tonight, please complete the 2014 Free Response question provided in class (or below)! (A little forced studying!)

The first two parts (a and b) are a little probability review! Then, part c brings in the "simulation" aspect!

After you finish the free response, be sure to check your answers with this link: 2014 AP Scoring Guidelines/Rubric!

Tomorrow we will start class with our simulations quiz! Here's what's on it:

• 1 simulation: write a procedure, simulation (using a given random number table), then write a conclusion!
• 1 short answer: explain why a simulation fails to model reality correctly (like our stamp...)
• 2 simulation multiple choice questions!
• You will have roughly 20 minutes to complete the quiz! Be ready!

If you want to study some more (for tomorrow's simulation quiz), try the two problems on your slides that we never did in class! (There is one about McDonald's Monopoly and one about a multiple choice quiz!)

Here are the procedures (so you can check/study!)

McDonald's:

1.) Generate 2 digit numbers from 00-99 (or 1 digit #'s from 0-9).

2.) Let 00-09 represent St. Charles' Place, 10-69 represent States Avenue, and 70-99 represent Virginia Avenue. (Or, let 0 represent St. Charles, 01-06 represent States, and 7-9 represent VA).

3.) Generate random numbers until you have one of each of the three Monopoly pieces. (*Note: we do not have to ignore repeats, because we can repeatedly get the same piece)

4.) Record the number of items we had to purchase to obtain all 3 pieces. 

5.) Repeat; conduct 10 trials.

Conclusion: Based on the simulation, we expect a person to purchase ______ items, on average, to obtain all 3 Monopoly pieces.

Multiple Choice

1.) Generate 2 digit numbers from 00-99. (Or, 1 digit numbers from 0-9).

2.) Let 00-19 represent a correct response, and 20-99 represent an incorrect response. (Or, 0-1 represent correct, 2-9 represent incorrect). (*Note: since you are "guessing blindly" you have a 1 in 5 chance to guess correctly, or a 20% chance to be correct--that's why we use these number breakdowns).

3.) Generate 5 random numbers (representing the 5 quiz questions). 

4.) Determine and record if all 5 questions were correct (yes or no).

5.) Repeat; conduct 10 trials.

Conclusion: Based on the simulation, the probability that she answered all 5 questions correctly by blindly guessing is _____. (To find this probability, take the number of times she got all 5 correct divided by your 10 trials.)