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Friday, November 30, 2018

Weekend HW = Figure Stuff Out!

**If you were absent today you must make up your vocab quiz (10 min) on Monday; you can do so before school, after school, or during lunch/study hall, or if none of those work, you will do it instead of our stamp on Monday in class.** You should also get today's notes from a classmate if you were out! 

This weekend's homework is in our textbook--but it's going to require you to "figure stuff out!" There are some questions based on ideas we have not covered in class--use the information below to get these done! Also, talk to each other, help each other, use online resources, whatever it takes to learn....

Weekend Homework:

Page 363-364: 1, 3, 5, 6, 19

  • #1 = Define Sample Space
    • "Sample space" refers to "the set of all possible outcomes for an event..."
    • This question is asking us to list all of the possible outcomes for each event (parts a,b,c,d), and decide if the events are equally likely
    • Here's an example (#2):
      • 2a.) List the sample space if we roll two dice and record the sum of the numbers
        • The sample space would be all of the possible "sums of two numbers..."
        • If we roll two dice, all of the possible sums are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12...so we write our answer as:
        • S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}
        • These sums are NOT all equally likely--for example, it is less likely to roll a sum of "2" than a sum of "7"--there is only one way to get a sum of two ("one and one"), but there are multiple ways to get a sum of seven ("two and five," "five and two," "six and one," etc...)
      • 2b.) Provide sample space for "a family has 3 children; record the genders in order of birth...
        • If a family has three children they can have a girl first, then another girl, then another girl....
        • Or they can have a girl, then a boy, then a girl
        • Or they can have a girl, then a girl, then a boy
        • Or they can have a girl, then a boy, then a boy...
        • Etc....
        • S = {GGG, GGB, GBG, GBB, BGG, BGB, BBG, BBB}
        • The probability of having a girl or boy (is assumed to be) 0.5, so these outcomes are all equally likely
      • 2c.) Define sample space if we toss four coins are record the number of tails...
        • If we toss four coins we can get no tails, 1 tail, 2 tails, 3 tails, or all 4 can be tails....
        • S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}
        • These numbers of tails (outcomes) are NOT equally likely...
          • The probability we get no tails (or 4 tails) would be (0.5)^4. (Think: "heads and heads and heads and heads" for no tails would be the same probability as "tails and tails and tails and tails" for four heads)...
          • However, the probability we get one tails would be "tails and heads and heads and heads" or (0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5), but then we have to multiply by 4, because there are four different ways we can have "one tails"
  • Answers to #6 (use your notes for 3, 5, 6)
    • 6a.) 0.06
    • 6b.) 0.50
    • 6c.) 0.94
  • #19 = Drawing Without Replacement
    • In #19 we are not told the batteries are drawn without replacement, we just have to think realistically--if we take out a battery to test, we would not put it back after we test it...
    • This is back to our "lines and words" like our quiz yesterday! We will use the same exact approaches/concepts as we did on that quiz, the only difference is that we now have to adjust our probabilities!
    • Use fractions so you can see when we "take one out..."
    • Let's use #20 as an example....
      • 20a.) Find the probability the first two we pick are the wrong size (not medium)
        • The probability a shirt is "not medium" is 16/20 to start, but will change as we take shirts out...
        • P(first two are the wrong size) = "Not medium and not medium"
          • The probability the first shirt is a not a medium is 16/20....
          • But we took one shirt that is not a medium out, so the probability the next shirt is not a medium is 15/19--there are 15 shirts left that are "not medium," and only 19 shirts remaining in the box...
          • So, P(first two are the wrong size)... 
            • = "Not medium and not medium"
            • = (16/20) x (15/19)
      • 20b.) Find the probability the first medium shirt you find is the third one you check....
        • = "Not medium AND not medium AND medium"
        • = (16/20) x (15/19) x (4/18)

Today's Class Recap:

  • Chapter 14 Vocab Quiz (if you were out you have to do this Monday!)
  • Looked at our slide about soccer, basketball....

    • First, we discussed how/why there must be students who play both, and as a result, can use a Venn Diagram
    • Then we explored how to figure out the "both," or the number in the overlap of the Venn Diagram in a variety of ways
    • We then used this work to develop a formula--the General Addition Rule
      • On Monday we'll use this rule a little more before we move on...
  • We finished with one example of a problem "without replacement" (like #19 in your homework)
    • Ex: There are 20 marbles in a bag. 10 are red, 6 are blue, and 4 are green. You draw marbles without replacement (don't put them back). What is the probability you draw 3 marbles and all 3 are red?\
      • = "Red and Red and Red" 
      • = (10/20) x (9/19) x (8/18) = 0.1053


Want to get a head start? 

Here's some of Monday's homework--I will add 2 more questions, but it depends what we get to on Monday....

Page 363-365: 4, 11, 17, 

(21ab, 23 are the problems I hope to add, but I'm not sure we'll get that far...)






Thursday, November 29, 2018

Thursday!

You have two responsibilities tonight...

1.) STUDY! We will start class with our chapter 14 vocab quiz tomorrow (10 min)!

  • There are two words that we did not cover in class: the definitions are provided below! I expect you to study these for tomorrow (gotta give a little extra challenge...)
    • Law of Averages
    • Sample Space
2.) Please complete the (13) multiple choice (provided in class or below): "Independent and Disjoint Events" 


Here is the chapter 14 vocab list:

  • Probability
  • Independent (Events)
  • Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive (Events)
  • Equally Likely (Outcomes)
  • Law of Averages
    • This is the idea that an outcome can be "due" to occur--this is not true for independent events
  • Law of Large Numbers
  • Complement (of an event)
  • Union
  • Intersection
  • Sample Space
    • The set of all possible outcomes for an event
Here is the "Independent, Disjoint Events" MC homework...



Tday's Class Recap:
  • Chapter 14 "Math" Quiz (17 min)
  • Started Chapter 15 Notes: Probability and Venn Diagrams
    • When do we use Venn diagrams?
    • How can we use Venn diagrams?
    • Completed one example  in class:
      • Suppose the probability someone takes AP Stat is 0.40. The probability someone takes AP Calculus is 0.15. Also, 8% of students take both courses.
        • What is the probability a student takes neither course?
        • What is the probability a student takes AP Stat or AP Calc?
        • What is the probability a student takes only AP Calc? 





Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Probability Quiz Tomorrow!

Tomorrow we will start class with a chapter 14 (math) quiz! Tonight--STUDY!

  • The best way to study probability is to do lots of practice problems!
  • First, complete 6 multiple choice questions provided in class (or below); the answers are also provided
  • Want more practice? Complete "Quiz C" below and check your answers! (also provided)
After our quiz tomorrow we'll get into some new stuff (chapter 15), and start looking at how we can work with events that are not disjoint. Then, on Friday, we'll start class with our chapter 14 vocab quiz and then get back to chapter 15 stuff.

Today's Class Recap:
  • Stamp = Math Practice
  • Discussed/took notes on probability notation and formulas
    • Used the stamp context to show how this type of notation could be used
  • Worked in groups on the following (challenging) question:
    • Suppose that 37% of registered voters in a certain city are democrats.
    • If we survey four voters, what is the probability that at least 3 are democrats?
Chapter 14 MC and Key

  • Answer Key:
    • 1.) B         2.) B          3.) B          4.) C          5.) E          6.) B

Chapter 14 "Quiz C" = More Practice!
  • Answer Key:
    • 1.) 0.25
    • 2.) 0.25
    • 3.) 0.016
    • 4.) 0.316
    • 5.) 0.059
    • 6.) 0.407
    • 7.) I'll leave this one up to you....




Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Tuesday HW

Tuesday's Homework = More Math Practice:
  • We will start class with our "math quiz" on Thursday--tonight's homework is practice for that quiz!
  • Page 340: 25ab, 28, 30, 33
  • Page 363: 7
  • Even Answers (p. 340):
    • 28a.) 0.027
    • 28b.) 0.125
    • 28c.) 0.001
    • 28d.) 0.729
    • 28e.) 0.784
    • 30a.) 0.0225
    • 30b.) 0.092
    • 30c.) 0.00008
    • 30d.) 0.556

Today's Class Recap:
  • Stamp = 2 AP MC (2 possible stamps)
  • (Almost) Finished chapter 14 notes: lots of vocab--we discussed the following...
    • Probability (definition,what does it fall between, what does a probability of 0 or 1 mean)
    • Equally Likely Outcomes
    • Law of Large Numbers
    • Law of Averages
  • Tomorrow we will use our stamp to look at some formal probability notation, then practice more
Plan for the coming days...
  • Weds (11/28) = "formal probability notation notes" (15 min) and classwork/practice
  • Thurs (11/29) = ch. 14 "math quiz," then start ch. 15
  • Fri (11/30) = ch. 14 vocab quiz, back to ch. 15 notes
  • Mon (12/3) to Weds (12/5) = finish chapter 15 notes
  • Thurs (12/6) = ch. 15 vocab quiz and practice
  • Fri (12/7) = ch. 15 "math quiz," start ch. 16

Monday, November 26, 2018

Monday!

Hey everyone! No homework tonight! But you can still get some extra stamps (due tomorrow)--take advantage of some extra time!

Still curious about today's game show? Check these out!

More Monty Hall Problem

More More Monty Hall Problem

More More More Monty Hall Problem

You can find tomorrow's homework below if you'd like to get a head start on that (more math practice, nothing new)...


 1.) Extra Credit Stamp #1 = 5 stamps
  • Question/Context = #8 from our ntoes...
    • Suppose we spin a roulette wheel 4 times: what is the probability that at least one of the spins lands on red? 
  • Extra credit stamp: rather than finding the probability that we get 0 reds and subtracting from 1, try the other way:
    • Find the probability we get exactly 1 red, or exactly 2 reds, or exactly 3 reds, or exactly 4 reds!
  • Show all work on separate paper (not in your notes) to turn in Monday
  • You should get the same answer as in class (0.9233)
  • See below for an image of this (which is also some notes from Friday)


2.) Extra Credit Stamp #2 = 3 stamps
  • What are five things you are thankful for? You must be thoughtful and reflective--truly give this some thought! You may think about this break specifically, or you may think about life in general; you may think about your friends, your family, school, your job--anything (or all of these)! 
  • Write these up (5 bullets) on a separate paper to turn in Monday!

3.) NEW: CHOOSE ONE thing you're thankful for/about and add it in the "comments" linked below for an extra (4th) stamp! Let's share!

4.) Tuesday's Homework = More Math Practice (if you'd like a head start):
  • Page 340: 25ab, 28, 30, 33
  • Page 363: 7
  • Even Answers (p. 340):
    • 28a.) 0.027
    • 28b.) 0.125
    • 28c.) 0.001
    • 28d.) 0.729
    • 28e.) 0.784
    • 30a.) 0.0225
    • 30b.) 0.092
    • 30c.) 0.00008
    • 30d.) 0.556

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Happy Thanksgiving (take home quiz)!

Hey everyone--don't procrastinate! Get your take home quiz done today or tomorrow so you can enjoy some time off! (Or procrastinate, I know I probably will).

1.) Please complete the take home quiz provided in class (or below)!

  • Use your notes to earn an A! (the Normal model stuff is from chapter 6)
  • For the first two pages show all work!
  • If you're curious the point values are marked on the image of the quiz below
  • Total = 23 point quiz
  • The more effort you put into this, the better prepared you are for our quizzes after break!
2.) Extra Credit Stamp #1 = 5 stamps
  • Question/Context = #8 from our ntoes...
    • Suppose we spin a roulette wheel 4 times: what is the probability that at least one of the spins lands on red? 
  • Extra credit stamp: rather than finding the probability that we get 0 reds and subtracting from 1, try the other way:
    • Find the probability we get exactly 1 red, or exactly 2 reds, or exactly 3 reds, or exactly 4 reds!
  • Show all work on separate paper (not in your notes) to turn in Monday
  • You should get the same answer as in class (0.9233)
  • See below for an image of this (which is also some notes from Friday)


3.) Extra Credit Stamp #2 = 3 stamps
  • What are five things you are thankful for? You must be thoughtful and reflective--truly give this some thought! You may think about this break specifically, or you may think about life in general; you may think about your friends, your family, school, your job--anything (or all of these)! 
  • Write these up (5 bullets) on a separate paper to turn in Monday!
Here is the take home quiz in case you were out (do it on separate paper, I'll give you a copy Monday): 


Have an awesome break everyone! Rest up, relax, and come ready for lots more probability on Monday! We'll be moving quickly--we have 3.5 weeks to finish our unit! (chapters 14-17)








Monday, November 19, 2018

Monday HW!

Hey everyone! I made it to a computer to get our blog updated...

**Any/all outstanding linear regression tests (vocab last Weds., math last Thurs.) must be made up during lunch/study hall tomorrow!**

Monday HW:

Pages 340-343: 13, 19ab, 27, 29
  • Throughout the homework you will see a few "at least one problems..."
    • Remember, "at least one" means "one or more..."
    • In other words, "at least one" means "everything except 0..."
    • So, our best option mathematically is to consider this:
      • At least one = not 0
      • So, we'll find the probability that 0 "whatever's" occur, and subtract that from 1!
    • For example:
      • What is the probability that we spin a roulette wheel 5 times and at least one spin lands on a green section (0 or 00)?
      • "At least one green" is the same thing as "not 0 greens"
      • So, we find the probability of 0 greens: "not green and not green and not green and not green and not green."
        • = (36/38) x (36/38) x (36/38) x (36/38) x (36/38) 
        • Then, we take the answer from the bullet above, and subtract it from 1!

 Today's Class Recap:
  • Stamp = Grade HW (key sent out via Remind)
  • Discussed HW Q's #5, 12d
  • Finished notes examples from Friday: 2 spinner questions, roulette slides #2, #5
  • Added three new types of problems (more math) = notes
    • 6.) If we spin 4 times, what is the probability that all four are not red?
    • 7.) If we spin 4 times, what is the probability that the four spins are not all red?
    • 8.) If we spin 4 times, what is the probability that at least one spin lands on red?3
  • All of this type of math shows up in tonight's homework, so get the notes from a classmate (and read above)!
Tomorrow in class we'll look at/discuss any homework questions, we'll go back to that "at least one" example and do some more math, and then we'll start to look at lots of vocab with probability!

See you there!

Friday, November 16, 2018

Weekend HW! (and Monday HW)

**Any outstanding Linear Regression tests (vocab and MC = Weds, FR and MC = Thurs) must be made up Monday or Tuesday! You can make up your test...**
  • Monday any period or after school
  • Tuesday any period
This weekend please complete the "Probability: The Basics" worksheet provided in class (or below).
  • This assignment provides us with essential practice we need--probability is all about practice (like anything else, really)!.
  • Some of this will definitely be tough, and will challenge you to extend your learning from today--the more effort you put into figuring it out, the better off you'll be!
  • Use your notes from class today (if you were out, get those from a classmate)---remember to first try to translate everything into words--draw your lines, fill in the blanks, etc.
  • Question 12b actually inlcudes two questions:
    • "What is the probability that you find two people and both are right handed?'
    • "What is the probability that you find two people and both are left handed?"
  • Questions 12d and 13biii are probably the two toughest questions...
    • Use the example below (#5 = not all yellow) for help with 13biii
  • You can also use the examples below for help:


    • And here's the homework questions in case you lost yours or were out:


On Monday/Tuesday in class we'll get right back into probability notes/examples, and the plan is to have  take home quiz over Thanksgiving break. The ultimate goal is to finish the probability unit and have a test our last day before winter break.
  • Week of 11/26-11/30: Ch. 14/15
  • Week of 12/3-12/7: Ch. 15
  • Week of 12/10-12/14: Ch. 16
  • Week of 12/17-12/21: Ch. 17 (with a unit test Friday, 12/21)

Have a great weekend and I'll see you all Monday!

Oh, and if you want to get a head start, here's Monday's homework:

  1. Grade the weekend homework (answers will be posted on the blog)
  2. Pages 339-343:
    • 13, 19ab, 27, 29
    • You won't necessarily be able to do all of these (yet)--we'll learn lots more math on Monday--but you can definitely get some of this done if you like! 




Thursday, November 15, 2018

Thursday HW!

**If you were absent yesterday or today you must make up any missing tests before Thanksgiving break...**

  • During any free period/lunch/study hall Friday, Monday, Tuesday
  • Or, after school Tuesday
  • Worst case: make up the test during Stat class, but then you will miss any notes and have to catch up on those

Let's do a little intro to probability for homework! Tomorrow it's new seats, new unit, a fresh start, and lots of math! I'm pumped--see you there!

Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook (or, today, I put the questions and answer below so you don't need your book):

Page 340: 9, 11, 17, 23a

  • For 9, a probability distribution is possible if....
    • All probabilities sum to 1
    • All probabilities are between 0 and 1 (inclusive, meaning they can equal 0 or 1)
      • No negative probabilities
      • No probabilities greater than 1
  • For 11, don't overthink these...
    • b.) "No more than 1 repair..." Think: How many repairs would satisfy "no more than 1?"
    • c.) "Some repairs..." Think: what numbers of repairs would satisfy "some repairs?"
  • In #17 the data is super old (2001--I was still in high school then!), but it might be interesting to think about how opinions may differ today (17 years later) than they did in 2001.
    • For the math here, you got this. Don't overthink it.
  • For 23, this is like our spinner stamp--basic probability!



Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Tonight STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY!

  • Look over the topics listed below for tomorrow's test
  • Complete the review packet provided in class on Monday (and check your answers below)
  • Look over your notes--maybe even type up an outline of your notes to help remember key concepts, definitions, formulas, interpretations
  • Do the extra practice problems at the bottom of this post
  • Look over your past quizzes and classwork assignments


Thursday's Test (11/15) = AP MC and AP FR!
  • Concepts to know:
    • How to read a computer output (write LSRL)
      • Find correlation given a computer output
    • How to find the LSRL, r, and R^2 with your graphing calculator
    • View a scatterplot and a residual plot on your graphing calculator
    • Describe an association
    • Determine if a linear model is appropriate
    • Interpret slope
    • Interpret y-intercept
    • Interpret R^2
    • Use an equation to make predictions
    • Calculate the residual for a prediction
    • Use residuals and the equation to find an actual value
    • Interpret the meaning of a residual
    • Describe how a point may influence slope, intercept, and/or correlation and explain why
    • Use a re-expressed model to make predictions
    • Determine if a prediction would be too large, too small, or accurate given a residual plot

Here are the answers to the review packet provided in class Monday:
  • Front page:
    • 4.) A response variable.... C
    • 3.) It's easy to measure... A
    • The model sqrt(distance)... A
    • For the model y = 1.9... E
  • Page 2:
    • 13a.) r = -0.9529 (always check slope to see if the correlation is + or -)
    • 13b.) 40.3266 - 5.95956(4) = 16.48836 units/cc
    • 13c.) The estimate is likely to be too high because, based on the residual plot, the residuals around a predicted value of 16.5 are negative, so I would expect the residual for this prediction to be negative which means our prediction is an overestimate (too large).
    • 13d.) This model is better than the original because for this (re-expressed) model the residual plot does not have a clear pattern (but for the original model there was a clear curve in the residual plot).
    • 13e). Log(cnn) = 1.80184 - 0.172672(4); concentration = 12.9167 units/cc
  • Page 3:
    • E
      • We know the second model/Regression II is a better fit because Regression I showed a clear curve in the residual plot, while the residual plot for Regression II is more scattered.
      • We can then narrow this down to B or E; we know there is a nonlinear relationship between x and y, because the model of "x vs. y" was Regression I, and the residual plot for Regression I showed that the relationship was not linear (a linear model was not appropriate).
  • Page 4:
    • 1.) The association between John's walking speed and pulse rate is strong, roughly linear, and positive, with r = 0.9935. In the scatterplot, the higher John's walking speed the higher is pulse rate.
    • 2.) A linear model does appear to be appropriate for the relationship between John's walking speed and pulse rate because both variables (walking speed and pulse rate) are quantitative and the scatterplot is roughly linear. (We would also like to check to see if a residual plot does not have a pattern--tomorrow a residual plot will be provided on the test.)
    • 3.) predicted pulse rate = 63.457 + 16.2809(walking speed)
    • 4.) 63.457 + 16.2809(4.5) = 136.72105 bpm
    • 5.) Residual = actual - predicted = 141 - 136.72105 = 4.27895 bmp
      • Note: actual value was estimated from the scatterplot
    • 6.) Point would either be at the "bottom right" of the graph or the "top left" of the graph. (Feel free to send a picture via Remind if you want me to take a look). 
    • 7.) The point should be "at the middle of the see-saw" so it has no leverage and should be above/away from or below/away from the pattern/trend.(Feel free to send a picture via Remind if you want me to take a look). 
    • 8.) This point should follow the trend and should have some leverage, so it might not actually fit on the given graph. (Feel free to send a picture via Remind if you want me to take a look). 
    • 9.) A residual of -2.7 has a unit of beats per minute; this residual means that we overestimated John's pulse rate for a speed of 5 mph by 2.7 bpm.
      • Extra Question: What would the actual walking speed be?
        • Predicted = 63.457 + 16.2809(5) = 144.8615
        • Residual = actual - predicted...
        • - 2.7 = actual - 144.8615
        • Actual pulse rate = 142.1615 bpm
    • 10.) According to the model, as John's walking speed increases by 1 mph, his predicted pulse rate increases by roughly 16.2809 beats per minute.
    • 11.) According to the data, if John's walking speed is 0 mph (John is standing still), his predicted pulse rate is about 63.457 beats per minute. (This is realistic, as John would still have a pulse if he isn't walking!)
    • 12.) According to the model, 98.7% of the changes in John's pulse rate can be explained by changes in his walking speed. 


Grading Criteria: AP Free Response Groupwork
  • 2007 (Form B) Problem (Heights of Fathers and Daughters)
    • Section 1: Graphical Portion
      • To get essentially correct the line had to be correctly drawn AND the residual is correctly drawn
      • One of these two components = P
    • Section 2: Calculation of Residual
      • Essentially correct = correct residual with work shown
      • Partially correct = correct magnitude of the residual but incorrect sign (should be negative)
      • Incorrect = incorrect residual or no work shown
    • Section 3: Effect on slope
      • Essentially correct: student states the slope will remain about the same (or decrease very slightly) and explains based on the new point fitting the original pattern or falling close to the LSRL (low residual)
        • *If student says "slope decreases" this is incorrect
      • Partially correct: student states slope will remain about the same but explanation is weak/unclear
    • Section 4: Effect on correlation
      • Essentially correct: states new correlation will increase and explains based on the new point fitting the original pattern AND having high leverage
      • Partially correct: correlation increases with an explanation that is...
        • "Point is close to the line/low residual"
        • Or has one of the two (point fits original pattern, has high leverage)
    • For each section E = +1 point, P = +0.5 points
  • 2012 Problem (Sewing Machines)
    • Part A: 
      • Essentially correct: student correctly describes shape (curved), direction (positive), strength (weak/moderately weak/somewhat weak), and does so in context
      • Partially correct: student does 3 of the 4 things listed for E
    • Part B:
      • Essentially correct: correct estimation of the point (2200, 65) AND explains that the shape of the scatterplot is curved with this point (and would appear roughly linear without it)
      • Partially correct: correct value of point and explanation =....
        • point is an outlier
        • removal of the point makes pattern more linear
        • point does not follow the pattern of the others
        • "High residual, high leverage"
    • Part C:
      • Essentially correct = circles the 2 correct points
      • Partially correct = correct two points AND one ore two additional points are circled, OR one of two correct points is circled and at most one additional point is circled


Want some more practice? Try these problems in the book (and check your answers)
    • Page 245: 1, 11abcd, 17, 27
    • Check your answers in the back of the book! (under Part II Review)

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

STUDY! First test of the second quarter tomorrow!

Tonight--STUDY! Let's start the second quarter strong and ace this first one! See below for lots of test info...

Wednesday (11/14) = Matching Vocab and AP MC Test!
  • Vocab List:
    • Explanatory Variable
    • Response Variable
    • Scatterplot
    • Correlation
    • Positive Association
    • Negative Association
    • Lurking Variable
    • Actual Value (y)
    • Predicted Value (y-hat)
    • Least Squares Regression Line (LSRL)
    • Slope 
    • Y Intercept
    • Coefficient of Determination (R^2)
    • Residual Plot (what is it? what is it used for?)
    • Residual (formula)
    • Residual (what is it?)
    • Residual (what does it look like on a graph?)
    • Overestimate
    • Underestimate
    • Outlier
    • Leverage
    • Influential Point
    • Extrapolatino
    • Interpolation
    • Re-express data
  • Multiple Choice Concepts (these overlap with Thursday's test)
    • Interpret slope
    • Interpret y-intercept
    • Interpret R^2
    • Know how a point influences correlation, slope, y-int (like Thursday's HW)
    • Use a re-expressed model to predict (like Monday's example/packet)
    • Identify points with largest/smallest residual, most/least leverage, highest/lowest x or y-value

Thursday's Test (11/15) = AP MC and AP FR!
  • Concepts to know:
    • How to read a computer output (write LSRL)
      • Find correlation given a computer output
    • How to find the LSRL, r, and R^2 with your graphing calculator
    • View a scatterplot and a residual plot on your graphing calculator
    • Describe an association
    • Determine if a linear model is appropriate
    • Interpret slope
    • Interpret y-intercept
    • Interpret R^2
    • Use an equation to make predictions
    • Calculate the residual for a prediction
    • Use residuals and the equation to find an actual value
    • Interpret the meaning of a residual
    • Describe how a point may influence slope, intercept, and/or correlation and explain why
    • Use a re-expressed model to make predictions
    • Determine if a prediction would be too large, too small, or accurate given a residual plot

Grading Criteria: AP Free Response Groupwork
  • 2007 (Form B) Problem (Heights of Fathers and Daughters)
    • Section 1: Graphical Portion
      • To get essentially correct the line had to be correctly drawn AND the residual is correctly drawn
      • One of these two components = P
    • Section 2: Calculation of Residual
      • Essentially correct = correct residual with work shown
      • Partially correct = correct magnitude of the residual but incorrect sign (should be negative)
      • Incorrect = incorrect residual or no work shown
    • Section 3: Effect on slope
      • Essentially correct: student states the slope will remain about the same (or decrease very slightly) and explains based on the new point fitting the original pattern or falling close to the LSRL (low residual)
        • *If student says "slope decreases" this is incorrect
      • Partially correct: student states slope will remain about the same but explanation is weak/unclear
    • Section 4: Effect on correlation
      • Essentially correct: states new correlation will increase and explains based on the new point fitting the original pattern AND having high leverage
      • Partially correct: correlation increases with an explanation that is...
        • "Point is close to the line/low residual"
        • Or has one of the two (point fits original pattern, has high leverage)
    • For each section E = +1 point, P = +0.5 points
  • 2012 Problem (Sewing Machines)
    • Part A: 
      • Essentially correct: student correctly describes shape (curved), direction (positive), strength (weak/moderately weak/somewhat weak), and does so in context
      • Partially correct: student does 3 of the 4 things listed for E
    • Part B:
      • Essentially correct: correct estimation of the point (2200, 65) AND explains that the shape of the scatterplot is curved with this point (and would appear roughly linear without it)
      • Partially correct: correct value of point and explanation =....
        • point is an outlier
        • removal of the point makes pattern more linear
        • point does not follow the pattern of the others
        • "High residual, high leverage"
    • Part C:
      • Essentially correct = circles the 2 correct points
      • Partially correct = correct two points AND one ore two additional points are circled, OR one of two correct points is circled and at most one additional point is circled
Tomorrow I will post all ofthe answers to the review packet provided today (a great tool to study), but here are the first page--you definitely need to know stuff like this for tomorrow:

  • 4.) A response variable.... C
  • 3.) It's easy to measure... A
  • The model sqrt(distance)... A
  • For the model y = 1.9... E

Want some more practice? Try these problems in the book (and check your answers)
    • Page 245: 1, 11abcd, 17, 27
    • Check your answers in the back of the book! (under Part II Review)