3 Day Weekend = Intro to Probability!

 Yay! Three day weekend! Rest up, relax, and have some fun with your friends and family! Come back recharged and ready to do lots of math, as we'll start our probability unit (chapter 14) on Monday!

This weekend, please complete the "Probability: The Basics" worksheet provided in class (or below). This homework assignment is your introduction to probability--the more work you put into this and the more learning you do independently, the easier your life will be in class! A few notes for your homework:

• All final answers should be written as decimals
• You must SHOW WORK for each question--the work may be as simple as a fraction, or adding/multiplying some fractions--but I need to see some work and then a circled decimal answer
• When you multiply or add fractions with your calculator (to get your decimal "final answer") be sure to put your fractions in parentheses! (Ex: (1/12) + (1/12))
• Feel free to read chapter 14 in your textbook to get a head start on this unit and for some examples!
• You can also watch some AP Stats Guy probability videos!
• Here are some examples you can use to help think about your own homework: this gives you some ideas for how to approach these problems, and also shows the type of work I need:

• And here are the homework questions in case you lost yours or were out:

• And finally, here are the homework answers so you can check yours!
1. 0.333
2. 0.167
3. 0.167
4. 0.50
5. 0.833
6. 0.00694
7. 0.6944
8. 0.0278
9. 0.4019
10. 0.0402
11. Think: are the spins of the wheel independent? Does the outcome of one spin affect the outcome of the next spin? If so, the spins are related and are not independent; if the outcome of one spin does not affect the outcome of the next, then the spins are independent.
12. Think: They got 64% by adding the two percentages (46% + 18%); does this seem reasonable?
13. a. 1     b. P(both righty) = 0.7396, P(both lefty) = 0.0196     c. 0.103544      d. 0.310632
14. ai. 0.51    aii. 0.55   bi. 0.041   bii. 0.84965  biii. 0.9744

And finally, there's this:

TEST TOMORROW!

Tomorrow is round two! Put in another night of hard work and studying to start the semester on the right foot! Tomorrow's test will include some of the concepts from today's test, but it will also involve more math, and some open ended questions. Use the following to study:

• AP Stats Guy Videos (Unit 2)
• Study/review your chapter 8 take home quiz
• Use the multiple choice provided on Monday in class (or at the bottom of this post) to practice
• Use the multiple choice provided today after our test for more practice (see below)
• Review your notes
• Be sure you know how to interpret slope, intercept, R^2, describe an association, and determine if a linear model is appropriate

Here's  breakdown of what's on the test:

Thursday's Test: AP Free Response and Multiple Choice: You will use a graphing calculator throughout all of Thursday's test. This test will include AP multiple choice and free response questions. Here's a breakdown of the content:

• Use a linear model to make predictions
• Determine how a point that is added/removed may affect slope, y-intercept, and/or correlation (r)
• Calculate a residual given a linear model and an actual value
• Use a re-expressed linear model to make a prediction
• Use the 4 multiple choice questions provided in class today to practice this! See below...
• Given a residual and linear model, find an actual value
• Identify a point with the highest/lowest residual or most/least leverage
• Determine if a linear model is appropriate for a given data set
• Describe an association shown in a scatter plot
• Interpret slope
• Interpret y-intercept
• Interpret the coefficient of determination, R^2
• Interpret the meaning of a negative/positive residual
• Determine if you are confident in a prediction (based on interpolation/extrapolation)
• Bonus: find the equation of a linear model algebraically
• *See the extra credit question on our chapter 8 take home quiz about "height vs. minutes played"
• The formulas for slope and y-intercept will be provided

Here are the answers to the 5 multiple choice practice problems I provided in class (review these for Thursday's test):

And here are the two multiple choice from today that deal with topics covered on tomorrow's exam--the answers are circled in red so you can check!

Tests Thursday and Friday!

STUDY, STUDY, STUDY!

This week we will have two tests--one on Wednesday and one on Thursday--these are our first two tests of the quarter, so start strong! Use your day off to prepare yourself to do well!

I will be after school on Wednesday to answer any questions and to review for Thursday's test.

Wednesday's Test: Vocabulary and Multiple Choice: Wednesday's test will have 20 matching vocabulary questions, 7 short answer questions, and then 8 multiple choice; here is a more detailed breakdown of the test!

• Vocab/Short Answer Section = 25 minutes
• 8 Multiple Choice = 20 minutes
• Vocab List: (use your chapter 7, 8, and 9 quizzes to study! The only word that was not on these is "reexpress data," which we covered today in class, or can be found in the chapter 10 glossary!)
1. Scatterplot
2. Explanatory Variable
3. Response Variable
4. Outlier
5. Influential Point
6. Leverage
7. Residual
8. Slope
9. Y-Intercept
10. Coefficient of Determination (R^2)
11. Correlation (r)
12. Least Squares Regression Line (LSRL)
13. Residual Plot
14. Overestimate
15. Underestimate
16. Lurking Variable
17. Predicted Value
18. Actual Value
19. Interpolation
20. Extrapolation
21. Re-express data
• Short Answer: The short answer section is quick--it gives you a graph (scatter plot) with 5 points labeled A-E; you have to identify the point with the least/most leverage, highest/lowest residual, highest/lowest x or y value, and which points may be outliers
• Multiple Choice: The third section of the test has 8 multiple choice questions, all of which will be answered WITHOUT a calculator! Here's a breakdown of some of the content assessed in this section
• Interpret slope
• Interpret y-intercept
• Interpret R^2
• Describe how a point that is added/removed will affect the slope, correlation, and/or y-intercept
• Write the equation of the LSRL from a computer output
• Know how the correlation is affected if we switch our axes or convert units or convert all values to z scores (none of these affect the correlation!)
• Know "facts about correlation"--you will be given 5 statements about correlation and will be asked to identify the statement that does not have an error

Thursday's Test: AP Free Response and Multiple Choice: You will use a graphing calculator throughout all of Thursday's test. This test will include AP multiple choice and free response questions. Here's a breakdown of the content:

• Use a linear model to make predictions
• Determine how a point that is added/removed may affect slope, y-intercept, and/or correlation (r)
• Calculate a residual given a linear model and an actual value
• Use a re-expressed linear model to make a prediction
• Use the 4 multiple choice questions provided in class today to practice this! See below...
• Given a residual and linear model, find an actual value
• Identify a point with the highest/lowest residual or most/least leverage
• Determine if a linear model is appropriate for a given data set
• Describe an association shown in a scatter plot
• Interpret slope
• Interpret y-intercept
• Interpret the coefficient of determination, R^2
• Interpret the meaning of a negative/positive residual
• Determine if you are confident in a prediction (based on interpolation/extrapolation)
• Bonus: find the equation of a linear model algebraically
• *See the extra credit question on our chapter 8 take home quiz about "height vs. minutes played"
• The formulas for slope and y-intercept will be provided

Here are the answers to the 5 multiple choice practice problems I provided in class (review these for Thursday's test):

Study, study, study! There won't be any surprises on this test! Prepare yourself! Watch some AP Stat Guy videos, review your past quizzes, use the links on the right to study, and use your textbook to review! Put in the effort to start our second quarter strong!

Then, next week, it's on to probability! Have a great day off and I'll see you all on Wednesday for the test!

Weekend HW!

This weekend please complete the outliers/influential points activity provided in class (the data deals with the age and Gesell Score for different children). 

• This will be our first grade of the second quarter! 
• I may check this as a homework assignment and provide an answer key, or I may collect it and grade it--I'll decide Monday morning! So do your best work either way!

And here's an extra credit (homework) opportunity for the second quarter based on yesterday's classwork:

1. Finish the 2012 AP Free Response Question we started in class. Be sure to do this on your own before you look at the rubric so you can accurately score it! If you just copy the answers and write down all E's, no extra credit!
2. Then, score your free response question! Score each section as E, P, or I based on the rubric; if you score a P or an I, circle the components on the rubric that show why you got that score!
3. Show me this on Monday!

On Monday we'll wrap up our notes and answer any lingering questions for chapter 10 (or this whole unit); then, we'll have a vocab test on Wednesday and a "math test" on Thursday! Also, for this unit, on the "vocab test day" you will also have a multiple choice test section with some released AP problems--more info will be posted about this Monday!

Have a great weekend!

Ch. 9 Vocab Quiz Tomorrow!

Tonight, STUDY FOR THE CHAPTER 9 VOCAB QUIZ! The vocab list is below! There are only a handful of new words on the vocab quiz--about half of them are repeated from our previous vocab quizzes!

Also, remember, STAMPS ARE DUE TOMORROW! Have them counted and ready BEFORE class! If you forget to turn them in tomorrow, or count them in class, you will have a 0 for your stamp grade!

Here's your chapter 9 vocab list for tomorrow's quiz:

• Residual (3 definitions: the vertical distance between a point and the line of best fit, actual - predicted (or y minus y-hat), and measures "how far off" a prediction is--error)
• Interpolation
• Extrapolation
• Outlier
• Influential Point
• Leverage
• Lurking Variable (a variable that creates an apparent association between two variables; this is the reason we cannot determine cause and effect in an observational study)
• Slope
• Y-Intercept
• Coefficient of Determination (R^2)
• Least Squares Regression Line (the line that minimizes the sum of squared residuals)

And here's an extra credit (homework) opportunity for the second quarter based on today's classwork:

1. Finish the 2012 AP Free Response Question we started in class. Be sure to do this on your own before you look at the rubric so you can accurately score it! If you just copy the answers and write down all E's, no extra credit!
2. Then, score your free response question! Score each section as E, P, or I based on the rubric; if you score a P or an I, circle the components on the rubric that show why you got that score!
3. Show me this on Monday!

Wed nes day HW!

Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook:

Page 215: 11, 13, 15
Tomorrow in class we'll do some classwork with chapter 9--we'll start with our stamp, then have some AP multiple choice and free-response!

On Friday we'll start class with our chapter 9 vocab quiz! Then we'll answer any lingering homework questions (from last night or tonight), talk a little more about lurking variables, and tie up any other loose ends/answer any other remaining questions. Then we'll cover chapter 10 on Friday/Monday before our unit 2 vocab test next Wednesday and our unit 2 multiple choice/free response test next Thursday!

Have a great Wednesday! See you tomorrow!

Here's your chapter 9 vocab list for Friday's quiz:

• Residual (3 definitions: the vertical distance between a point and the line of best fit, actual - predicted (or y minus y-hat), and measures "how far off" a prediction is--error)
• Interpolation
• Extrapolation
• Outlier
• Influential Point
• Leverage
• Lurking Variable (a variable that creates an apparent association between two variables; this is the reason we cannot determine cause and effect in an observational study)
• Slope
• Y-Intercept
• Coefficient of Determination (R^2)
• Least Squares Regression Line (the line that minimizes the sum of squared residuals)

Tuesday HW: **This homework was changed during G period Tuesday**

Tonight, please complete the following in your textbook--this counts as two homework assignments (Monday and Tuesday HW):

Page 213: 1, 2, 7, 9abcdef

Also, remember that STAMPS are DUE WEDNESDAY! See the blog post below (from Friday) for more info about stamps.

Here are the answers for #2 in your homework since they're not in the back of the book:

2a.) r = - 0.846;
2b.) According to the model, for each additional 1 year that passes, the predicted difference in average age at first marriage decreases by about 0.015756 years.
2c.) Approximately 1.81 years
2d.) I am not too confident in the predicted difference in age at first marriage for 2010 because this is an extrapolation; in our data set the latest year was 2000, and the year 2010 falls beyond that year.

And here is Wednesday's homework if you're interested in getting a head start:

Page 215: 11, 13, 15