Wednesday HW

Tonight please complete the "Uncovering Expected Value" worksheet provided in class (or below).

• This assignment gets us thinking about how we might develop a casino game and determine what to charge people and/or what prizes we might assign!
• The hardest part may be calculating the probabilities for the probability model (#1)....
• Remember, we are going to play a game twice...
• Each time we play the game we can earn 0, 1 or 2 points (in one play)
• The "outcomes" in the table are the "sums," or how many points we earn (total) in the two games combined
• Think: how could we have a sum of, say, 3? 
• How many points would we get on the first play? And on the second?
• Or, what's another way--what could we get on the first? And on the second?
• Here are the correct probabilities for your model so you can check, and/or so you can use these to complete the rest of the assignment. 
• (of course you have to figure out how to find all of these):
• P(sum = 0): 0.16
• P(sum = 1): 0.24
• P(sum = 2): 0.33
• P(sum = 3): 0.18
• P(sum = 4): 0.09
• For #5 you should get an expected value of $153 if you allot the prize amounts correctly
• On the back:
• These are the same sums from the front, so the probabilities are the same...
• Now we want to think about making this a gambling game--your job is to decide which prize amount goes with which sum.....

Tomorrow in class we'll move on to the second half of chapter 16--combining random variables! See you there!

Here's the plan for the rest of the week (and what happened today):

• Wednesday (12/12)
• Stamp: Pinball Wizard
• Practice finding expected value and standard deviation with calculator
• Interpreting and using expected value
• HW Questions
• Classwork: Pinata Free Response (more practice!)
• Thursday (12/13): Chapter 16 Notes/Examples: Combining Random Variables
• Friday (12/14): Chapter 16 Notes/Examples: Combining Random Variables
• Monday (12/17): Chapter 16 Wrap-Up Notes/Practice: Combining Random Variables
• Tuesday (12/18): Chapter 14-16 Review, Questions, Practice
• Wednesday (12/19): Chapter 14-16 Probability Test
• Thursday (12/20): Chapter 14-16 Vocab Test (20 min), then Chapter 17 notes
• Friday (12/21): More Chapter 17 Notes
• There will be a take home assignment over break! It will either be....
• Take Home Test (review of everything!)
• "Teaching Yourself Chapter 13" Assignment

2's Day HW

We may or may not start class with a quiz tomorrow...I can't make up my mind. I guess it'll be a surprise when you come in!

If we do have a quiz it will be based on chapters 14/15--the best thing to use to review is our weekend homework (ch. 14/15 review questions)! Tonight's homework and extra credit stamp would also help to review for that...

Tonight's Homework:

1.) Complete questions 3/11, 5/13, 7, 15, and 21 on page 381-383 (or on the handout provided in class)

• Homework Answers:
• 3a.) Amounts Won = 0, 5, 10, 30; Probabilities = 26/52, 13/52, 12/52, 1/52 (respectively)
• 3b.) $4.13
• 3c.) Less than $4.13 
• 11.) $5.44 (from calculator)
• 5a.) # Children = 1, 2, 3; Probabilities = 0.5, 0.25, 0.25 (respectively)
• 5b.) 1.75 children
• 5c.) 0.87 boys
• 13.) 0.83
• 7.) $27,000
• 15a.) 1.7
• 15b.) 0.9
• 21a.) # Good = 0, 1, 2; Probabilities = 0.067, 0.467, 0.467
• 21b.) 1.40
• 21c.) 0.61

2.) Extra Stamp Opportunity (3 possible stamps): DUE TOMORROW

• Glue the "Secret Santa" slide (bottom left one if you have it) to a piece of paper and answer questions 1-3
• If you lost your slide you can copy the question onto paper and answer 1-3
• Show all work
• Remember, after we draw a name for this secret santa we DO NOT put it back....
• Here's the question:
• 
  

Monday = Study Vocab!

Tonight please complete the following:

1.) STUDY! Chapter 14/15 vocab quiz to start class tomorrow

2.) Start getting ready for a math quiz (Wednesday)

• Look over the answer key from the "textbook homework" (Thursday night)
• Check all answers from the "weekend homework" (Ch. 14/15 review questions) and see where you stand/what you need help with

3.) Extra Stamp Opportunity (3 possible stamps): DUE WEDS

• Glue the "Secret Santa" slide (bottom left one if you have it) to a piece of paper and answer questions 1-3
• If you lost your slide you can copy the question onto paper and answer 1-3
• Show all work
• Remember, after we draw a name for this secret santa we DO NOT put it back....
• Here's the question:
• 
  

Here is the vocab list for tomorrow's quiz--the majority of these words repeat from our last vocab quiz:

• Sample Space
• Probability
• Complement (of an event)
• Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive Events
• Independent Events
• Probabilities of all possible outcomes sum to....
• Union 
• Intersection
• Equally Likely (Events)
• Conditional Probability--when do we use it?
• Venn Diagram--when do we use them?
• Tree Diagram--when do we use them?
• Recognize conditional--given 5 questions, identify which one does or does not require conditional probability (like our Titanic stamp)

And here is the answer key (with all work shown) for our weekend homework:

Tomorrow it's back to random variables, expected value, and probability models--see you there! 

Thursday AND Friday (Long Post)

**You have until the end of the day Monday (I will be here after school) to do the chapter 14 quiz retake if you like**

I will most likely be out tomorrow! Be sure to stay focused and ace your work--it will be collected and graded by the sub! Here's the plan....

• Complete the two AP free response and the AP multiple choice provided by the sub
• You can work in groups and use your notes--be motivated by learning more than the grade--take this as an opportunity to practice and strengthen your probability skills!
• We will have a chapter 15 quiz (vocab and math) in class on Tuesday! This classwork is a great way to start our prep for that quiz!

Thursday's HW: "Textbook Problems" Worksheet (or find them in the textbook)

• Be sure to check your answers in the image below (in red)
• If I am absent tomorrow I will check this Monday (and we'll discuss any questions)...
• For #43...
• Think: what's the "right decision" if someone was drinking? To detain the driver or to release them?
• What's the "right decision" if someone was not drinking? To detain them or release them?
• In your tree diagram for this question your first set of branches is "drinking or not drinking..."
• Your next set of branches will be "detain or release," and you have to connect these to the idea of "the right decision" to figure out what probabilities go where...

Weekend/Monday HW:

• Tomorrow the sub will give you a worksheet with chapter 14 and 15 "probability review questions..."
• Complete these to prepare for Tuesday's quiz! 
• All answers are given in parentheses--always check your work
• 
  
• 

On Monday in class we will finish our chapter 15 notes/slides (20 min); then, we'll start chapter 16! See you there!

**We will have a probability unit test after we finish chapter 16! The goal is....

• Probability "Math Test" = Wednesday (12/19)
• Probability Vocab Test = Thursday (12/20) --- 25 minute limit
• Then we'll discuss binomial and geometric probabilities after our vocab test and on Friday (12/21)

When's Day HW

Tonight please complete the tree diagram practice provided in class (or below)--one is about binge drinking, the other is about the type of high school students attended and their chances of graduating college.

• For the "binge drinking' question....
• The first information is defining binge drinking (5 or more drinks in a row for men, 4 ore more in a row for women)--these aren't probabilities, so these won't be used in our tree diagram....
• There are three "types of drinkers" defined, but only two probabilities for being involved in an alcohol related accident....
• Remember, those who drink moderately and those who abstain both fall into the category of "nonbingers..."
• For the private college question....
• The 70% refers to the percent of incoming freshmen (at this college) who attended a public high school
• Then, the chance of graduation is referring to the probability students graduate from this college depending on the type of high school they attended....
• Answer Key:
• You will receive a detailed key with all work shown tomorrow in class
• Binge Drinking:
• 1.) 0.1252
• 2.) 0.0748
• 3.) 0.0171
• 4.) 0.5974
• 5.) 0.4175
• Private College
• a.) 0.795
• b.) 0.75
• c.) 0.90
• d.) 0.6604
• e.) 0.1463
• f.) No....incoming freshmen who attended a private high school are more likely to graduate (90% chance) than incoming freshmen who attended a public high school (75% chance).
• Questions (in case you lost yours or were out)....

Tomorrow's (Thursday) HW: This is all based on the same type of stuff as tonight's homework (which we'll also practice tomorrow in class), so feel free to get a head start! These problems are all selected from the textbook....

Today's Class Recap:

• Stamp = practice identifying conditional probability
• HW Questions (book and worksheet)
• New Stuff: Using Tree Diagrams (and conditional probability)
• Completed the "middle right slide" example (about going to Canada and Mexico) using conditional probability
• Our homework tonight is also based on these ideas
• Here are the notes/example from class today:
• 

Two's Day HW

Tonight please complete the following: (you can find all of the homework questions and answers below, so you won't need a book tonight...)

1.) "Stamp" worksheet about "A school plans to create a committee of 4 students..." provided in class or below.

2.) (You can do these on the back of the worksheet if you like):

Page 364-365: 21ab, 22ab, 23

Here are the homework questions:

And here are the answers so you can check:

• "Stamp" Worksheet (A committee.....)
• a.) 0.0529
• b.) 0.956
• c.) 0.00882
• Textbook Problems page 364-365:
• 21a.) 0.32
• 21b.) 0.135

• 22a.) 0.25
• 22b.) 0.875

• 23a.) 0.266
• 23b.) No, having a garage and a pool are not independent because a house with a garage is more likely to have a pool (26.6%) than any random house (21%).
• 23c.) Having a garage and a pool are not mutually exclusive (disjoint) because some (17%) of homes have both. 

Today's Class Recap:

• Stamp = conditional probability and two way tables
• We then went over this problem in our notes and used it to develop a formula for conditional probability
• HW Questions (from book)
• Completed the "middle left slide" example (about going to Canada and Mexico) using conditional probability

Here's the plan for the coming weeks, in case you're curious:

• Wednesday (12/5): Notes/examples--conditional probability and tree diagrams
• Thursday (12/6): Chapter 15 Classwork/Practice
• Friday (12/7): Chapter 15 wrap up notes/practice
• Weekend = Ch. 15 take home quiz?
• Monday (12/10): Ch. 15 math quiz? Start ch. 16 notes
• Tuesday (12/11): Ch. 15 Vocab Quiz, Ch. 16 Notes
• Wednesday-Friday (12/12 to 12/14): Chapter 16 notes and classwork
• Monday (12/17): Chapter 16 wrap-up
• Tuesday (12/18): Probability Practice?
• Wednesday (12/19): Probability Math Exam
• Thursday (12/20): Probability Vocab Exam + Chapter 17 Intro
• Friday (12/21): Chapter 17 Notes/Examples
• We will finish chapter 17 and have a quiz after break
• Monday (12/24) to Tuesday (1/1) = Break
• You WILL have an assignment over break....either....
• Review Take Home (will be provided even if not assigned for practice)
• Chapter 13 Reading Questions/Quiz
• Wednesday (1/2) to Friday (1/4): Finish ch. 17 (end of probability)
• Monday (1/7) to Friday (1/11): Chapter 12 or 13 Notes
• Monday (1/14) to Friday (1/18): MIDTERM EXAMS = PRACTICE AP EXAM

Bonus Stamp Solution:

• Check out the solution (below) to the bonus stamp question we had over break--even if you didn't do it! 
• 

**You have a rare opportunity (for our class)--you can re-take a different version of the probability "math quiz!" **

• However, your re-take score will replace your first score even if it's a lower score...
• ...so don't just show up and wing the retake! You must study and come prepared--re-do the quiz you got back today!
• You must re-take the second version by 2:10 on Friday, during lunch, study hall, before school, or after school (Weds/Thurs).

Monday's Homework:

Page 362-365: 4, 9, 11, 17

• #9 is only in orange because it wasn't listed in the weekend post, the other three were
• For #9 and #17 you need to know how a deck of cards is made up...here you go:
• Standard Deck of Cards;
• 52 total cards
• 26 red cards
• 13 red cards are "hearts"
• 13 red cards are "diamonds"
• 26 black cards
• 13 black cards are "spades"
• 13 black cards are "clubs"
• Each of the suits (spades, clubs, hearts, diamonds) has 13 cards...
• 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
• Jack, Queen, King, Ace
• So, there are four two's in a deck--a 2 of hearts, 2 of diamonds, 2 of spades, 2 of clubs
• There are four three's in a deck--3 of hearts, 3 of diamonds, 3 of spades, 3 of clubs
• Etc...
• #4 Answer Key:
• 4a.) 0.14
• 4b.) 0.23
• 4c.) 0.77

Today's Class Recap:

• Stamp = working without replacement (like #19 from the weekend homework)
• We then went over this problem (about marbles) in our notes
• HW Questions: Ind, Disjoint MC and book problems
• Independent/Disjoint MC Answer Key:
• 1.) E
• 2.) C
• 3.) E
• 4.) B
• 5.) A
• 6.) A
• 7.) C
• 8.) B
• 9.) C
• 10.) A
• 11.) A
• 12.) C
• 13.) B
• Then we started our next note slide and began a discussion of conditional probability (to be continued tomorrow)...

Bonus Stamp Solution:

• Check out the solution (below) to the bonus stamp question we had over break--even if you didn't do it! 
•