Test Monday!

TEST MONDAY! A Monday test can mean one of two things--it either means you had a lot of extra time to prepare and study to ace it, or it means you show up cold after 2 days off of school and blow it. Don't let it mean the latter to you; use this extra time to prepare and get an A! This may be our last test of the quarter! (we'll see...)

You have many resources to use to study:

1.) Complete the "half sheet" review problems provided in class (or in blue, below); the answer key is provided below as well so you can check all of your work!

2.) Look over the answer key provided about last night's homework about types of error!

3.) Look at your stamps throughout this unit (including today's 2 MC question stamp)!

4.) REVIEW YOUR NOTES!

5.) Watch AP Stats Guy videos--anything about one proportion z intervals and one proportion z tests!

6.) Use your Barron's book to review! Use the table of contents to look over anything "one proportion z interval" or "one proportion z test" related!

7.) Feel free to email (carofano.fm@easthartford.org) or REMIND me with any questions!


Ch. 19 - 21 TEST MONDAY!

• Here are the chapter 19-21 summary/review questions you can use if you'd like to start preparing:
1. AP Statistics Test Review: Ch. 19,20, 21 (hw for night before test)Mr. Carofano plans to estimate the true percentage of EHHS underclassmen who plan to take AP Statistics. He takes a sample of 120 underclassmen, and 29 of them plan to take AP Statistics. Based on past data, it is believe that approximately 10% of underclassmen take AP Statistics.
   1. Verify that the conditions for inference are satisfied.
   2. Calculate the margin of error for this sample (98% confidence).
   3. Estimate the true percentage of underclassmen who plan to take AP Stat using a 98% confidence interval.
   4. Interpret the meaning of this interval.
   5. Explain the meaning of “98% confidence.”
   6. How can Mr. Carofano narrow the width of his interval? What would cause the interval to widen?
   7. Based on your interval, do you believe the percentage of underclassmen who plan to take AP Stat has risen?
   8. Is there significant evidence to suggest that the percentage of underclassmen taking AP Stat is rising? Conduct and appropriate test at the 5% level of significance. (hypotheses, conditions, math, conclusion).
   9. Explain the meaning of the p-value, in context.
   10. If the percentage of students in AP Statistics has risen, more sections of the course will be offered and another teacher will be hired. If not, there will only be 3 classes offered.
       1. Identify the meaning of a Type I and Type II error in context.
       2. Identify a consequence of each.
   11. The probability of a Type I error is 5%, and the probability of a Type II is 15%. Calculate the power.
   12. Explain the meaning of the power of this test, in context.
   13. If Mr. Carofano wants a margin of error of only 4%, what sample size should be used (at 98% confidence)?

And here is the chapter 19, 20, 21 review key:

And finally, here's an outline of what's on your test:

• There are open ended, multiple choice, and true false questions on the test
• Find/identify x, n, and p-hat from a context (know how to calculate x and remember to always round x)
• Conduct a full hypothesis test (one or two tailed) (chapters 20, 21)
• Hypotheses, conditions, math, conclusion
• Define Type I and Type II errors and a consequence of each (chapter 21)
• Create a one proportion z interval (chapter 19)
• Conditions, show the math formula/get interval on calculator, interpret the meaning of the interval
• Use a confidence interval to "test a claim" (chapter 19, 21)
• For example, does our interval of (0.77, 0.88) suggest that MA has met it's goal of surpassing 80% of drivers wearing seatbelts?
• Find a p-value for a 2 sided test given the one sided p-value; or find the one sided p-value given the 2 sided p-value (like today's MC stamp)
• Know how to increase power (either increase sample size or increase alpha)
• Know how changing alpha affects beta and power
• Calculate sample size given a margin of error
• Find the power of a test given a false + and false - rate (remember a false - is a type 2 or beta!)
• Know how to sample size and confidence level affect the width of an interval