Thursday HW!

Tonight please complete the "Pop Quiz: Sample Surveys" worksheet provided in class! (It's not really a quiz though). 

Tomorrow we'll quickly go over our homework and get back to our chapter 12 notes! See you there!

Here's the homework in case you lost yours or were out:

• 1. Employees of Fenway Park plans to survey people who have been to the park and ask, “How would you rate your experience at Fenway Park (using a scale of 1-10 as a quantitative measure)?” During one baseball game, the employees randomly select 1,000 seat numbers and survey these 1,000 people at the park. 
• Identify each of the following:
• Sample
• Sampling Frame
• Population
• Population Parameter of Interest
• Sampling Method 
• 2. For each scenario below identify the population parameter of interest. Within your answer define the context in detail, and clearly identify what the population is.
• A meteorologist plans to take a random sample of 30 towns in CT and record the amount of rainfall over the past year. 
• A psychologist takes a random sample of 5,000 students from colleges/universities across the country and asks, “Do you remember the dream you had last night?” 

If you're looking for some more help/explanation about the homework (or if you were out today), read the blog post below!

Wednesday HW!

Tonight please complete the "Analyzing Contexts" homework provided in class (there's no title on the paper though) or below!

Homework:

• For each statistical study below identify the following:
• The population: the population is the "whole group" that we're trying to generalize to
• Think: what "big group" does our sample of people represent?
• The population parameter of interest: the parameter of interest is the "number" that we're trying to figure out! (this will likely be a percentage or mean)
• Think about the data you're collecting...
• If you're collecting categorical data, the parameter of interest is a percentage
• If you're collecting quantitative data, the parameter of interest is a mean (average)
• The sampling frame: sampling frame refers to all of the possible people/things that could have been sampled
• The sample: the sample refers to the actual group of people/things that we sampled, or the group of people/things that we actually got our data from!
• The sampling method: in your own words (no fancy vocab...yet) describe how they chose their sample of people/things
• Potential sources of bias or problems in generalizing: Consider this study--are there any major issues/flaws in the way this data was collected? Describe any issues/problems that might arise with this method of data collection
• Bias exists if some group of people or some response is over or under represented in a sample...
• So, think about this (for each scenario)--would some response/group be over or under represented with this sampling method? Who? Why?

1. A question posted on the Lycos Web site on 18 June 2000 asked visitors to the site to say whether they thought that marijuana should be legally available for medicinal purposes. 
2. Hoping to learn what issues may resonate with voters in the coming election, the campaign director for a mayoral candidate selects one block from each of the city’s election districts. Staff members go there and interview all the residents they can find.
3. Dairy inspectors visit farms unannounced and take samples of the milk to test for contamination. If the milk is found to contain dirt, antibiotics, or other foreign matter, the milk will be destroyed and the farm re-inspected until purity is restored.

Here's an example you can use for some help:

Context: Researches waited outside a bar they had randomly selected from a list of such establishments. They stopped every 10th person who came out of the bar and asked whether he or she thought drinking and driving was a serious problem.

Population: all people who are of age to go to bars (adults) in this state/region

Population Parameter of Interest: the percent of adults who think drinking and driving is a serious problem

Sampling Frame: all people at the bar on that day/night (we could've potentially surveyed any person at the bar that night)

Sample: the people at the bar who we actually spoke to/surveyed (every 10th person who came out of the bar)

Sampling Method: we stopped every 10th person on their way out of the bar and surveyed them

Potential Sources of Bias/Problems that May Arise: in this case we're surveying people who are leaving a bar and are possibly about to drink and drive; this may overrepresent people who think drinking and driving isn't a serious issue

For more examples look at any of the odd problems 1-9 on page 289 and check your answers in the back of the book!

Quiz(zes) Tomorrow!

Tonight, STUDY! We will start class with our chapter 11 vocab quiz and our chapter 11 simulations quiz (procedure, simulate, conclusion)!

Here's the chapter 11 vocab list:

• Random (Outcome)
• Pseudorandom Number
• Response Variable
• Outcome
• Component
• Trial
• Sample Survey
• Simulation
• Experiment (know what it is and that it's the only way to establish cause-and-effect)
• Observational Study
• Given a context identify the component, outcome, and response variable

And if you want some extra practice to get ready for the "design a simulation quiz" check these out:

• Page 267: 11
• Try the problem on the back of today's stamp....
• Look in your Barron's book! Simulations fall under the "Probability" heading! Use the table of contents to find the simulation section!
• In the 8th edition this starts on page 213!
• Here's the answer to the problem on the back of the stamp so you can check yours:
• Generate 2 digit numbers for 00-99.
• For the first test, let 00-33 represent passing and 34-99 represent failing.
• For subsequent tests (every test after the first), let 00-71 represent passing and let 72-99 represent failing.
• Generate a random number. If the student passes, the trial is over. If the student fails, generate a second random number and determine if the student passed/failed on the second test. Never generate more than 2 random numbers.
• Record whether or not the student has their license after 2 (or 1) attempts.
• Repeat.
• For your conclusion you will find a probability/percentage--find the percent of times a student had their license after 2 (or 1) attempts. (# of students who have their license within 2 attempts out of the total number of trials).

You'll have about 20ish minutes for your 2 quizzes (maybe 25), and then we'll start to discuss sample surveys! See you there!

Monday HW!

Monday Night's HW: Please complete the following in your textbook...

Page 267: 19, 21

• For each, write a procedure, simulate (5 trials), then write a conclusion!
• These are a bit trickier than the weekend hw!
• For 19 we will have more than the 5 steps we saw in class--because the probability of passing the driving test changes after the first attempt, we will have two "breakdowns" (step 2); we will have to have a breakdown for numbers that represent passing for the first test, and this will then change for the following (subsequent) tests!
• You can use the random number tables in the back of your book or use the tables below for your homework:

Tomorrow in class we'll do some more classwork/practice with simulations, and then on Wednesday we'll have our chapter 11 quiz! (First we'll do the chapter 11 vocab quiz, then we'll design a simulation)!

Here's the chapter 11 vocab list:

• Random (Outcome)
• Pseudorandom Number
• Response Variable
• Outcome
• Component
• Trial
• Sample Survey
• Simulation
• Experiment (know what it is and that it's the only way to establish cause-and-effect)
• Observational Study
• Given a context identify the component, outcome, and response variable

Weekend HW!

If you did not complete last night's homework (complete the 2015 FR then score it using the rubric) you can do so this weekend for full credit. Read the blog post below.

This weekend please complete the following in your textbook (some simulations practice!)

Page 266: 9bc, 13, 23, 25

• For 9b, write a procedure! 
• 9c asks you do describe/define the response variable--you likely answered this within your procedure, so you don't necessarily have to re-write this again
• For 13, 23, and 25...
• Write a procedure
• Simulate--conduct 5 trials for each simulation!
• Write a conclusion
• Use the random number tables below for each question!
• For 13:
• The question asks, "what are the chances you get them all right?" So, you final answer for this simulation will not be an average, it will be a probability ("the chances")! Run your 5 trials and find the probability you get all six questions right (how many times did you get all 6 right out of the 5 trials?)

• For 23:
• For this question, we have 100 cards labeled with different with different "prizes." Remember, two digit #'s from 00-99 give us 100 different #'s, so we should use 2 digits here. In this case, when we give one of the $50 prizes away (for example), we cannot give that prize again--so for this simulation we'll have to ignore repeats! This is the first time we've seen this in a procedure!

• For 25
• Use the example from class to help with this simulation! We have a different "stopping rule," but it's a similar process.

How about some extra credit?

• The video linked below describes the Monty Hall Problem--check it out!
• Monty Hall Problem!
• You can also check out this link to ready more about this famous Statistics problem...
• 2 Goats, 1 Car
• Here's the extra credit assignment:
• In your own words, describe (in complete sentences) the context of this problem.
• Then, in your own words, describe the "solution" to this problem.
• In other words, write a few sentences summarizing what the Monty Hall problem is all about! Be detailed! 

And lastly, if you're feeling super ambitious, here's Monday night's homework--more simulations! You can use the same random number tables (above) for these if you like:

Page 267: 19, 21

• For each, write a procedure, simulate (5 trials), then write a conclusion!
• These are a bit trickier than the weekend hw!
• For 19 we will have more than the 5 steps we saw in class--because the probability of passing the driving test changes after the first attempt, we will have two "breakdowns" (step 2); we will have to have a breakdown for numbers that represent passing for the first test, and this will then change for the following (subsequent) tests!

Weds HW (Midterm Review)

Tonight please complete the 2015 FR question provided in class (or below)! We actually had part (b) of this question on our unit 1 test! We didn't go over it back then b/c we said it would come back up as part of our midterm review--well here it is!

Please also be sure to SCORE your AP FR question using the rubric linked below. If you do not look at this answer key and score your response you will receive only half credit.

2015 Scoring Rubric (scroll down to #1 for an answer and scoring)

Tomorrow in class we'll continue to work with simulations! See you there!

Back to Work!

I hope you had an awesome day back!

If you were out today we started talking about methods of data collection--be sure to get the notes! Tomorrow and Thursday we'll be working with simulations--if you'll be out then, please read chapter 11 in your textbook to keep up!

Tonight, please complete the 3 multiple choice questions on the back of the classwork you got back today (or below)!

• These questions are based on more probability! More specifically, they deal with expected value, variance, and random variables from chapter 16!