Thursday = Last HW of Q2

Tonight's homework is our last hw assignment of the second quarter---so let's count it double!

• HW: Please complete the "Intro to Geometric and Binomial Probability" worksheet provided in class (or below)
• All answers are provided in parentheses
• SHOW ALL WORK 
• Your work (can) be writing geometpdf(, geometcdf(, binompdf(, or binomcdf( with the correct values entered
• For letters d and L: Binomial Expected Value (binomial because we're given a sample size)
• d: This (like c last night), is not something we've learned, but you got this...
• d: Think--what % of people do we expect to speak a language other than English at home?
• Ok, so if we have 50 Americans and we expect ___% to speak a language other than English at home, how many of those 50 do we expect to speak a language other than English at home?
• No fancy formulas needed here, just think logically/proportionally!
• L: use the same logic as D for expected value
• Standard Deviation of a Binomial = sqrt(npq)

• Extra Credit (due tomorrow)
• Calculate each of the probabilities from last night's "Binomial or Geometric? Exit Slip" (about the % of people with a bachelor's degree or higher)... 
• Show all work!

STAMPS are DUE on EXAM DAY! Start getting those together...

• Get all of your stamps together
• Count the number of stamps
• Count again to double check
• Write the total number of stamps on the front paper
• Put them all together (in a folder, envelope, bag, cut out all the stamps and glue them to paper--whatever works)
• I will generate 5 random names per class and check those totals; if your total number of stamps is incorrect you will receive a 0 for that grade

Today's Class Recap: 

• Stamp = midterm review
• Back to probability....chapter 17 = binomial and geometric probability
• Discussed hw answers and any questions students have
• Went over part c from our note slides
• Introduced binompdf and binomcdf
• Completed questions e, f, g, h, and i from our notes slides

Suggested Midterm Review HW:

• Complete the 1999 and/or the 2004 free response provided in class (yesterday)

• (ALWAYS) Score your response--this will allow you to check your understanding, and it will also give you some insight into how I will be grading your midterms!
• Link to ALL released FR and Scoring Rubrics: CLICK ME!
• If you need the questions: scroll down to 1999 and/or 2004 and click on "Free Response Questions," the scroll to the appropriate number to find the question
• 1999 = #1
• 2004 #3, 4

• Choose the "scoring guidelines" (for the appropriate year) to see the scoring rubric--scroll down to the appropriate number to find the rubrics

Tonight's HW:

Wednesday HW!

Tonight you have two responsibilities for homework:

1.) Complete the "Binomial or Geometric? Exit Slip" provided in class (or below).

• For this assignment your task is to read each question and label it as binomial or geometric probability! 
• Extra Credit Due Friday = calculate each of these probabilities, showing all work (we'll learn more of this tomorrow)

2.) Complete questions a, b, c, and d on your notes slides!

• Glue these in and do them in your notebook!
• Questions a, b, and d are based on today's notes
• For d, remember that "among the first 4" means the first O-neg donor is 1st or 2nd or 3rd or 4th (aka found among the first four people)
• We did not discuss how to find the answer to question c, but you can definitely figure it out!
• Think...we don't need any fancy formulas to find this answer, we just need to understand some proportional reasoning.....
• You'll get a decimal answer--don't round! Even though we can't draw blood from a fractional number people, this answer represents an average!
• Answer key:
• a.) 0.0414
• b.) 0.0919 = 0.053016 + 0.03891
• c.) 16.667 people (DO NOT round this answer, as it represents an average)
• d.) 0.2193

Today's Class Recap: 

• Stamp = midterm review
• Back to probability....chapter 17 = binomial and geometric probability
• Completed our Venn diagram defining/comparing/contrasting binomial and geometric probabilities
• Used yesterday's stamp to learn how to use geometpdf( and geometcdf( on our graphing calculator (new stuff, notes)

Suggested Midterm Review HW:

• Complete the 1999 and/or the 2004 free response provided in class!

• (ALWAYS) Score your response--this will allow you to check your understanding, and it will also give you some insight into how I will be grading your midterms!
• Link to ALL released FR and Scoring Rubrics: CLICK ME!
• Go to 1999 and/or 2004 and click on "Free Response Questions," the scroll to the appropriate number to find the question
• 1999 = #1
• 2004 #3, 4

• Choose the "scoring guidelines" (for the appropriate year) to see the scoring rubric--scroll down to the appropriate number to find the rubrics

Tonight's HW:

Tuesday HW!

Tonight = one more homework on experimental design....and I may collect it and grade it as a quiz, or I may not. We'll find out tomorrow.

Tonight please complete the "Experiments Wrap Up" questions/worksheet provided in class (or below).

• Be sure to write your answers thoroughly, and in context! Try to use exact wording from the question/context if possible!
• Your explanations for #1 and 2e should be written in complete sentences! Be detailed/specific to the given context!
• Want some extra credit?
• On separate paper explain how women would be randomly assigned to either receive ultrasounds throughout their pregnancy or not receive ultrasounds. Suppose you have 100 female volunteers for your experiment.
• Here are the questions in case you need them:

Today's Class Recap: (slightly varies by period)

• Looked over homework key (for last night's hw) and discussed any questions
• Chapter 13 vocab quiz
• Back to probability....chapter 17 = binomial and geometric probability
• Worked on the questions below and began to discuss what binomial and geometric probability are

Suggested Midterm Review HW:

• Complete 20 (Form B) #2 and/or the 2009 Free Response #3 provided in class (or linked below)
• One of these questions was taken from a past midterm!
• (ALWAYS) Score your response--this will allow you to check your understanding, and it will also give you some insight into how I will be grading your midterms!
• Link to ALL released FR and Scoring Rubrics: CLICK ME!
• Go to 2011 Form B and/or 2009 and click on "Free Response Questions," the scroll to the appropriate number to find the question
• Choose the "scoring guidelines" (for the appropriate year) to see the scoring rubric--scroll down to #5 for the suggested HW

Monday = Study and HW!

Tonight you have two responsibilities for homework:

1.) Complete questions 1 and 2abc on the "Experiments Wrap Up: Blocking" worksheet provided in class.

2.) STUDY! We will start class tomorrow with our chapter 13 vocab quiz! (Then it's back to probability!)

Here's the chapter 13 vocab list (with some definitions):

1. Experiment (treatments randomly assigned)
2. Observational Study (no manipulation of factor--no assignment of treatments)
3. Retrospective Observational Study
4. Prospective Observational Study
5. 4 Principles of experimental design (what are the 4?)
6. Factor (the IV, the explanatory variable, the variable we manipulate in an experiment)
7. Levels (the specific values of the factor)
8. Treatments (the "groups" we create--if there is one factor the levels = the treatments; if there are multiple factors, each factor has its levels, and the treatments are all of the different "overall" groups we create)
9. Response Variable (the data we collect--what we're measuring in a study)
10. Random Assignment (where does it happen in an experiment?)
11. Control Group (a group that receives a baseline treatment, typically a placebo, used for comparison)
12. Replication
13. Blocking 
14. Blinding (single v. double blind)
15. Placebo
16. Confounded/Confounding Variable
17. Matching (this is when the subjects in an observational study are paired based on some characteristic--we are specifically pairing two data values)
18. Statistically Significant

Here are the homework questions tonight in case you lost your paper or were out:

Suggested Midterm Review HW:

• Complete 2011 (Form B) #2 and/or the 2009 Free Response #3 provided in class (or linked below)
• (ALWAYS) Score your response--this will allow you to check your understanding, and it will also give you some insight into how I will be grading your midterms!
• Link to ALL released FR and Scoring Rubrics: CLICK ME!
• Go to 2011 Form B and/or 2009 and click on "Free Response Questions," the scroll to the appropriate number to find the question
• 
  
• Choose the "scoring guidelines" (for the appropriate year) to see the scoring rubric--scroll down to #5 for the suggested HW

Today's Class Recap: (slightly varies by period)

• Stamp = midterm review (unit 1 stuff)
• Blocking Discussion


• What is blocking? Why do we do it? (generic notes)
• Discussed blocking in relation to our homework and our Carofanogrow context
• Discussed the "which blocking scheme (A or B) is better? Explain." question found in our slides
• Discussed 2007 (Form B) Free Response #3, focusing on question A
• 

Weekend HW!

Happy Friday! It's the weekend, yay! On Monday we'll wrap up our review of experimental design with some practice/classwork (hopefully) and we'll finish our notes (if necessary). There will be a free response about experimental design on the midterm, so be sure to put some real effort into your homeworks/classwork on this stuff! We have limited practice/notes in class!

Suggested Midterm Review HW:

• Complete 2018 Free Response #5 (provided in class yesterday, or in the link below)
• Score your response--this will allow you to check your understanding, and it will also give you some insight into how I will be grading your midterms!
• Link to ALL released FR and Scoring Rubrics
• Go to 2018 and click on "Free Response Questions," the scroll to #5 for the suggested HW
• You can also look at all 6 questions from last year's free response!
• Choose the "scoring guidelines" (for 2018) to see the scoring rubric--scroll down to #5 for the suggested HW

Weekend HW:

Page 313 - 316: 7abcdefg, 29bc, 31ac

• *Note: the questions for #7 parts abcdefg are on page 313, but the actual #7 on page 314

Today's Class Recap: (slightly varies by period)

• Stamp = midterm review (linear regression)
• Homework Review/Questions...
• Discussed migraine context and the answers to each question
• Notes on blinding
• Discussed confounding variables and how to write about confounding variables using the smoking/Alzheimer's context (middle right slide, or in post below)
• Notes on confounding variables
• Back to blocking and Carofangrow...
• Discussed how to design a completely randomized, blocked experiment
• Why do we use blocking? How do we use blocking?
• How do I choose a variable to block by (and explain why we chose that block)?
• Provided a list of all questions students asked after reading the chapter, with all responses--read this stuff!

On Tuesday we will start class with our chapter 13 vocabulary quiz: here's the list so you can start making your flash cards or a quizlet...

1. Experiment (treatments randomly assigned)
2. Observational Study (no manipulation of factor--no assignment of treatments)
3. Retrospective Observational Study
4. Prospective Observational Study
5. 4 Principles of experimental design (what are the 4?)
6. Factor (the IV, the explanatory variable, the variable we manipulate in an experiment)
7. Levels (the specific values of the factor)
8. Treatments (the "groups" we create--if there is one factor the levels = the treatments; if there are multiple factors, each factor has its levels, and the treatments are all of the different "overall" groups we create)
9. Response Variable (the data we collect--what we're measuring in a study)
10. Random Assignment (where does it happen in an experiment?)
11. Control Group (a group that receives a baseline treatment, typically a placebo, used for comparison)
12. Replication
13. Blocking 
14. Blinding (single v. double blind)
15. Placebo
16. Confounded/Confounding Variable
17. Matching (this is when the subjects in an observational study are paired based on some characteristic--we are specifically pairing two data values)
18. Statistically Significant

Thursday HW!

Don't be lazy when you do this homework! Remember the golden rule of this unit....

Re-read any procedure you write (for random assignment or for any experimental design) --> someone who reads your procedure should be able to replicate the exact same process based on your written procedure!

Suggested Midterm Review HW:

• Complete the 2015 AP Free Response
• Score your response--this will allow you to check your understanding, and it will also give you some insight into how I will be grading your midterms!
• 2015 AP Free Response Scoring Rubrics: Click ME!

Thursday HW: Answer the Questions below:

If you write lazy, half-ass answers for 1d, 2, or for your scoring you will not be given full credit. We play how we practice. We perform on tests how we perform on our homework. 

1.) Some people claim they can get relief from migraine headache pain by drinking a large glass of ice water. Researchers plan to enlist several people who suffer from migraines in a test. When a participant experiences a migraine headache, he or she will take a pill that may be a standard pain reliever or a placebo. Half of each group will also drink ice water. Participants will then report the level of pain relief they experience. The researchers who collect the pain relief data are not aware what treatment each patient used. 

a.) Identify the (two) factors in this study. Then, define the levels for each factor. 
b.) Identify the treatments.
c.) Define the response variable.
d.) Does this study involve blinding? Single or double? Explain.

2.) Complete the questions on the middle right slide you have (also below).

3.) The question about Alzheimer's is from the 2016 AP Free Response. After completing this question you MUST score your response using the link below:

• First, just READ THE RUBRIC FULLY--first read the sample responses, then read the scoring breakdown
• Re-read the rubric (question 3), now focusing on the scoring and score each part (a, b, c) as E, P, or I
• Provide a couple notes/bullets about why you earned the score you did--focus on what's missing--what did you need to add to earn an E? 
• Give yourself an overall score of 1-4
• 2016 Scoring Rubric (Scroll down to Question 3): CLICK ME!

Today's Class Recap:

• Stamp = midterm review
• Chapter 13 notes...back to Carofanogrow
• Looked at the "worst case scenario" given a map of the 30 plots...
• What is the worst case if we randomly assign treatments (as described yesterday)--why is this the worst case? 
• How can we address this?
• New vocab: confounding variables
• Blocking: what is it? how does it work? We'll pick up with this tomorrow....

On Monday or Tuesday we will start class with our chapter 13 vocabulary quiz: here's the list so you can start making your flash cards or a quizlet...

1. Experiment (treatments randomly assigned)
2. Observational Study (no manipulation of factor--no assignment of treatments)
3. Retrospective Observational Study
4. Prospective Observational Study
5. 4 Principles of experimental design (what are the 4?)
6. Factor (the IV, the explanatory variable, the variable we manipulate in an experiment)
7. Levels (the specific values of the factor)
8. Treatments (the "groups" we create--if there is one factor the levels = the treatments; if there are multiple factors, each factor has its levels, and the treatments are all of the different "overall" groups we create)
9. Response Variable (the data we collect--what we're measuring in a study)
10. Random Assignment (where does it happen in an experiment?)
11. Control Group (a group that receives a baseline treatment, typically a placebo, used for comparison)
12. Replication
13. Blocking 
14. Blinding (single v. double blind)
15. Placebo
16. Confounded/Confounding Variable
17. Matching (this is when the subjects in an observational study are paired based on some characteristic--we are specifically pairing two data values)
18. Statistically Significant

Back to Work!

Back to the daily grind! I'm sure today was tough for a lot of us--time to shake off the rust and get back into our normal routines after a long break of relaxing, eating, sleeping, and hanging out.

Tonight's Homework:

Page 314-318:

• 9, 11, 13, 17
• For each of these state if the study is an experiment, retrospective observational study, or prospective observational study (ignore the other textbook directions)
• 33a
• Describe how to randomly assign "water or no water" to the 20 empty containers...
• 35
• Design an experiment!
• You can write a numbered procedure or diagram the experiment
• Your design should include:
• Clearly identify the treatment groups
• Describe how to assign treatments (randomly)
• Generally describe what should be done after treatments are assigned (1-2 sentences/bullets with a brief description)
• State we will "record and compare ______" --this should define your response variable
• BE DETAILED AND USE CONTEXT!

Today's Class Recap (ch. 13)

• Stamp = midterm review 
• Ch. 13 Intro Notes:
• How can we diagram experiments (or write a procedure)?
• How can we describe a process for randomly assigning treatments?
• Tomorrow = more experimental design!