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Thursday, January 31, 2019

TEST TOMORROW, TAKE HOME TEST TONIGHT!

Tonight is all about putting in the work to start this quarter strong (with an A)!

1.) Complete the "methods of data collection" take home test! (Also sent out via Remind).

2.) STUDY, STUDY, STUDY! Your take home test got you started on studying, but here are some more options so you're ready for your A tomorrow....

  • Format of test:
    • 15 matching vocab
    • 9 multiple choice
    • 3 open ended (2 of the 3 have parts abc)
    • Be sure you know how to write a procedure for a cluster, stratified, or simple random sampling method
    • Know the similarities and differences between the sampling methods, as well as the advantages of each

  • Grade your classwork from today! ("Pop Quiz! Sampling MC" Packet). Here's the key:
    • 1.) D
    • 2.) D
      • I hate this question. It's a tough one...
      • The most common incorrect answer is "A." A is incorrect because when we think about bias, we're thinking about our sample being biased; many students choose A because of the fact that "80% of eligible voters actually did not vote in the last election," but this 80% is not referring to our sample of 1500 voters.
      • We can't really choose E because we have no idea how our 1,500 voters were selected, so we don't really know if undercoverage is an issue; we also do know that the sample was collected randomly, which makes it less likely that undercoverage is a problem.
      • The answer here is D because when people are asked, "Did you vote last year?" people, for whatever reason, often feel pressured to (maybe lie and) say yes. Picture walking up to someone and saying, "Did you vote in the last election?" 
    • 3.) E
    • 4.) B
      • For this question we should be able to recognize that we have a stratified sample, so no, this is not a simple random sample, which leads us to A,B, and C. From there, rather than trying to determine which statement is true/correct, I would try to use "process of elimination" and instead determine which two (of A,B,C) are definitely false, and whatever's left is your answer.
      • In a simple random sample not only should each individual person/thing have the same chance of being chosen at any given time, but each sample or combination of people/things should be equally likely--which is not the case for this scenario.
    • 5.) E
      • Remember that what we assign is a factor. A blocking variable is not assigned, blocking is when we group people/things based on some existing characteristic, not based on something assigned. 
    • 6.) D
    • 7.) B
    • 8.) B
    • 9.) A
    • 10.) B
  • Complete the experimental design extra practice (labeled as Stamp with the date 1/24/18) provided in class (or below) and check your answers!
    • a.) Blocking Variables = gender and dying of hair (people are first grouped as male/female, as well as grouped (blocked) by whether they dye their hair or not, and then treatments (shampoo formula) are assigned from there.
    • b.) Factor = what we assign = shampoo formula 
      • (2 levels, new or old shampoo, and since there is only one factor the levels = treatments = new shampoo group and old shampoo group)
    • b.) Response Variable = what we measure = hair condition rating using a scale of 1-5
      • Many students often give a generic answer that is more based on the intent of the experiment, like "effectiveness of shampoo," but remember the response variable is specifically what we are measuring (in this case, to determine the effectiveness of each shampoo formula)
    • c.) This experiment is at least single blinded because the independent evaluators who determine the hair condition ratings are unaware what shampoo each individual used. For this to be double blinded we would have to make sure that the new and old shampoo formulas look, smell, feel, taste, etc. exactly the same so that no person can determine which formula they were assigned. If we added a control group we would also want to use some type of placebo shampoo, a fake shampoo that does nothing but looks exactly like the new/old shampoo so that none of the participants know what treatment group they are in.
    • d.) Random assignment of treatments is important so that we can try to minimize bias and avoid the effects of any confounding variables that we may not have been aware of. If we randomly assign treatments within each block then, on average, the treatment groups within each block will "look similar" in terms of the people in those groups and will allow us to better compare (and establish a cause/effect relationship between shampoo type an hair quality rating.)
    • More questions to consider: 
      • Could you diagram this experiment to fully outline the process?
      • Describe a procedure for randomly assigning treatments with this blocked design.
      • (Feel free to send me your answers if you try these and want me to check!)
  • Look over your two vocab quizzes so you're ready for the (15) vocab matching questions on tomorrow's test!
    • Vocab list = chapter 12 vocab quiz + chapter 13 vocab quiz
  • Review your past stamps--many of these have the correct answer circled if you made a mistake, or, if you didn't have a chance to do some of the questions use them for extra practice! Feel free to send me your answers via Remind if you'd like me to check them!

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Wednesday HW!

**If you were out today you will take the chapter 12 vocab quiz at the start of class tomorrow (instead of doing your stamp)! Come ready!**

See below for an extra credit homework opportunity!

Tonight please complete and grade the "Writing About Bias" practice provided in class (or below).

YOU MUST USE THE ANSWERS BELOW TO GRADE YOURSELF--MAKE ANY CORRECTIONS AND/OR RECORD SOME NOTES ON YOUR RESPONSES--TO EARN CREDIT! 

  • For the record, that means if you just copy the answers you'll have nothing to correct and you'll have to get a 0. Don't do that. :)

Writing About Bias Answer Key:
  • a.) Response Bias: The wording "Given the real-world context and clear application to the real world..." would lead people to respond "yes, Stat is more useful," and as a result this response (yes) would likely be over represented in our sample. 
    • Be sure to reference the specific wording in the question that is problematic (for any description of response bias)
    • Context 
  • b.) Voluntary Response Bias: This data was collected using a voluntary response sample (online poll) rather than using a randomly collected sample; as a result, students who have the strongest opinions about the usefulness of Statistics are more likely to respond and are likely over represented in our sample. 
    • Connect to the sampling method (voluntary response sample)
    • Be concise here, and be sure to use context--don't just say "those with strong opinions are over represented, be sure to tie that to this context.
  • c.) Non-response Bias: For this poll, only 20 of 47 students responded to the survey question, and the 27 students who did not respond may have different opinions about the usefulness of Statistics than the 20 students who did respond.
    • Don't just say "some people did not respond"-- extend to comment on the fact that those who did not respond may have a different opinion about ____ than those (20) who did respond
    • Context! In this example we can use specific numbers of people who did/did not respond
  • d.) Undercoverage: This sample was collected using an online poll on the class blog, and so any students who did not go to the blog did not have an opportunity to respond. It is possible that the students who do not think Statistics is useful are less likely to go to the blog, and so our sample may over represent students who do think Stat is useful, as they are potentially more likely to go to the blog and vote on this poll.
    • Comment on who didn't have an opportunity to respond as a result of this method...
    • Why does that matter? Connect "the people who didn't have a chance to respond" to a potential opinion about the usefulness of Statistics 


Extra Credit Homework Opportunity: DUE FRIDAY!

Complete AND SCORE the 2008 Free Response (on the back of today's dining hall question)! 
  • This is extra credit AND a great way to review for Friday's test!


Today's Class Recap (delay schedule):
  • Chapter 12 Vocab Quiz
    • If you were out today you will do the quiz to start class tomorrow instead of our stamp!
  • Writing About Bias (Practice)
    • Completed 2004B Free Response (about the quality of food at dining halls for a given college campus)
  • Friday = Unit Test (Methods of Data Collection)


Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Vocab Quiz, Catch Up on HW

**Please be sure to get any straggling AP registration forms turned in!**

Two Responsibilities for Tonight:

1.) STUDY! We will start class tomorrow with our chapter 12 vocab quiz! 20 terms! (List below).
  • If you were absent you are still doing the vocab quiz--so you must your the glossary in chapter 12 of your book, or get a classmate's notes, because we covered some of the vocab today!
2.) If you are currently missing any homework you can make it up for tomorrow--after tomorrow I will not accept any late homework!
  • This includes if you need to score/take notes on your free response scoring!
    • If you only completed the question and did not score it you earned a 0!
  • See the blog posts below for information about past homework assignments

Today's Class Recap:
  • Everyone is taking the vocab quiz tomorrow--be sure to get a classmate's notes because some of the vocab came up today!
  • Stamp = Which one doesn't belong? (Sampling Methods)
  • Class Discussion/Notes: Bias
    • What does it mean for a sample to be biased?
    • "Bad Samples" -- 2 types -- what are they? why are they "bad?"
    • Types of Bias (Vocab) Notes:
      • Voluntary Response Bias
      • Undercoverage
      • Nonresponse Bias
      • Response Bias
    • Writing About Bias (on the AP exam) -- tips
      • We'll pick up with this tomorrow...
  • Friday = Unit Test (Methods of Data Collection)

Chapter 12 Vocab List (quiz tomorrow)!
  • Sample
  • Population
  • Sampling Frame
  • Sample Statistic
  • Sampling Variability
  • Sample Size (know it's represented by n and that it is NOT based on population size; sample size is based on a given margin of error--how precise we want our estimate of a parameter to be)
  • Response Variable
  • Population Parameter
  • Simple Random Sample
  • Stratified Random Sample
  • Cluster Random Sample
  • Systematic Sample
  • Census
  • Multistage Sample
  • Voluntary Response Sample
  • Convenience Sample
  • Bias
  • Voluntary Response Bias
  • Nonresponse Bias
  • Undercoverage
  • Response Bias

Monday, January 28, 2019

Monday, Monday, Monday!

Back to the grind!

**Be sure to turn in your AP Registration Form if you have not done so yet! This is critical!**

Monday HW: 2014 AP Free Response (provided in class or below)

1.) Complete
2.) Score
3.) Record notes on your scoring 
  • Part (a) = back to some unit 1 concepts!
  • Part (b) = understanding sampling methods AND connecting to bias....
    • First, determine which method is better....
    • Then, explain why--what could go wrong with the worse method? By "go wrong" we mean why might our sample not represent the population in regard to the response variable being measured (for the "bad" method)?
  • Do your best on each part and then use the rubric to score your response, take notes--this is an exercise of learning from (potential) mistakes and using a given answer to work backwards and strengthen/develop our understanding!

Today's Class Recap:
  • Stamp = Sampling MC
  • Class Discussion/Notes (15ish min):
    • Stratified v. Cluster Sampling
    • How are they similar? Different? When do we use each?
  • Completed 2011 AP Free Response with neighbors (10-12 min), then discussed these (more focus on cluster v. stratified sampling)
  • Tomorrow (and Wednesday) = bias! 
  • Thursday = review
  • Friday = Unit Test (Methods of Data Collection)

We will have our chapter 12 vocab quiz to start class on Wednesday (so I can get them back to you Thursday to use to study). Here's the list so you can start studying:
  • Sample
  • Population
  • Sampling Frame
  • Sample Statistic
  • Sampling Variability
  • Sample Size (know it's represented by n and that it is NOT based on population size; sample size is based on a given margin of error--how precise we want our estimate of a parameter to be)
  • Response Variable
  • Population Parameter
  • Simple Random Sample
  • Stratified Random Sample
  • Cluster Random Sample
  • Systematic Sample
  • Census
  • Multistage Sample
  • Voluntary Response Sample
  • Convenience Sample
  • Bias
  • Voluntary Response Bias
  • Nonresponse Bias
  • Undercoverage
  • Response Bias



Friday, January 25, 2019

Weekend HW x2

**AP REGISTRATION FORMS DUE! If you didn't get your in be sure to have it Monday!**

If you were out Thursday you must make up the quiz you missed Monday at the start of class (while the rest of us do our stamp)!


You have two homework assignments, both of which will be checked on Monday:

Assignment #1.) Complete AND SCORE the 2013 AP Free Response #2. 
  • You will only be given credit if you complete the FR, score it, AND write a few notes/bullets explaining why you got the score you did...anything else will earn a 0!
    • For example, if the rubric says you would earn a "P" (partially correct), then provide some notes that explain what you would've needed to add to earn an E!
    • Here is the link to the scoring rubric:
    • For part a:
      • Question A asks how using the first 500 students who enter the football stadium to estimate the % of students who are satisfied with the appearance of the school's buildings might be biased....
      • We have not talked about bias yet, but you got this...
      • Write about the following for a:
        • 1.) Why might the sample not represent the population in regards to feelings about the appearance of buildings/grounds? More so, what types of students (in regards to feelings about appearance of buildings/grounds) might be over (or under) represented with this sample?
        • 2.) How does this connect to estimating the % (proportion) of students who are satisfied with the appearance of the buildings/grounds--would you expect this sample to over or underestimate this %? (connect back to your ideas from step 1 above)

Assignment #2.) Complete the "Ch. 12 HW: Identifying Sampling Methods" questions/worksheet provided in class (or below).
  • Ignore the questions about bias for #'s 11, 12
  • Check your answers! (posted below)
  • GRADE YOUR HOMEWORK! Learning is about making mistakes, then using a sample solution to work backwards and figure out those mistakes you made! Learning is not about "getting it right on the first try," or just doing your homework and never checking your work!


Today's Class Recap:
  • Stamp = AP MC
  • Worked in groups on our "Chapter 12 Sampling Methods Investigation" (packet) to develop a procedure for all 7 sampling methods
    • We developed a procedure for SRS yesterday (Thursday)
    • Today groups designed procedures for methods 2-7
  • If you were out you should (do your best to) complete this packet and write such procedures on your own--these serve as your notes for this chapter!
    • If you try this and get stuck, I have some "hint cards" that give examples of each procedure in another context. You can email me for these (carofano.fm@easthartford.org) or check Remind (sent them out today!)


2013 Free Response: Check answers using the scoring rubric linked above, score your response, AND write a few notes/bullets about why you earned the score you did.

Ch. 12 HW: Identifying Sampling Methods: Check answers below--grade yourself!

Homework Answer Key:

11a.) Voluntary Response Sample
11b.) Cluster Sample
11c.) (Attempted) Census
11d.) Stratified Sample
11e.) Simple Random Sample (SRS)

12a.) Voluntary Response Sample/Convenience Sample
12b.) Voluntary Response Sample
12c.) Cluster Sample
12d.) Systematic Sample
12e.) Stratified Sample

13a.) Multistage Sample--combines elements of a cluster sample (choose three churches at random from 17), as well as a stratified sample (then choose 100 random members from those 3 churches)
  • A "multistage sampling method" simply combines multiple methods (as described above)
  • Remember, SRS is an inherent part of a cluster or stratified sample, so that (SRS element) does not make a method "multistage." 
13b.) Answers will vary, but ultimately, what could happen is that the members we randomly choose from the 3 randomly selected churches may not give a representative sample of the population of all church members in this city. The 3 churches we choose may not (and probably don't) represent all churches in this city.

15a.) Systematic Sample
15b.) This sample is NOT likely to be representative of all patrons at the park. With this method we only surveyed people who are waiting in line (already), and we did not survey any patrons who are not in line. We would definitely want to survey patrons who are not in line because it is possible that the reason they are not in line think the wait is too long. We want a sample that represents all people at the park, not just those in line for this coaster (who clearly don't mind the wait).
15c.) All people in line for this ride

27a.) This is a simple random sample (SRS).
  • First, number the transactions (from the previous day) from 1 to 120.
  • Next, use a random number generator to generate 10 random numbers IGNORING REPEATS (or without replacement).
  • The supervisor should then recheck the 10 transactions that correspond to the 10 numbers randomly generated.
27b.) We would modify the sampling strategy by using a stratified sample--first we would group (stratify) the transactions by type (wholesale or retail), then take an SRS from each group (strata).
  • First, separate the transactions based on their type--wholesale or retail.
  • Next, for the wholesale group, number the wholesale transactions from 1-36.
  • Use a random number generator to generate 3 random numbers, ignoring repeats.
  • The supervisor should then recheck the 3 wholesale sales that correspond to these numbers.
  • Now, for the retail group, number each transaction from 1-84. 
  • Use a random number generator to generate 7 random numbers, ignoring repeats.
  • The supervisor then rechecks the 7 retail sales that correspond to the 7 randomly generated numbers.
*Note: we DO NOT always have to take (sample) the same number of people/things from each strat; we want our sample to be representative of the population, so we want to sample proportionally from our strata. If 30% of the population is wholesale, we want 30% of our sample to be wholesale sales--which is why we choose 3 of these and 7 retail sales. 

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Thursday/Friday HW!

**AP REGISTRATION FORMS DUE TOMORROW!**

If you were out today you must make up the quiz tomorrow during lunch/study/start of class OR at the start of class Monday!

You have two homework assignments, both of which will be checked on Monday:

1.) Complete AND SCORE the 2013 AP Free Response #2. (technically Thursay's hw)
  • You will only be given credit if you complete the FR, score it, AND write a few notes/bullets explaining why you got the score you did...anything else will earn a 0!
    • For example, if the rubric says you would earn a "P" (partially correct), then provide some notes that explain what you would've needed to add to earn an E!
    • Here is the link to the scoring rubric:
    • For part a:
      • Question A asks how using the first 500 students who enter the football stadium to estimate the % of students who are satisfied with the appearance of the school's buildings might be biased....
      • We have not talked about bias yet, but you got this...
      • Write about the following for a:
        • 1.) Why might the sample not represent the population in regards to feelings about the appearance of buildings/grounds? More so, what types of students (in regards to feelings about appearance of buildings/grounds) might be over (or under) represented with this sample?
        • 2.) How does this connect to estimating the % (proportion) of students who are satisfied with the appearance of the buildings/grounds--would you expect this sample to over or underestimate this %? (connect back to your ideas from step 1 above)
2.) Complete the "Ch. 12 HW: Identifying Sampling Methods" questions/worksheet provided in class (or below).
  • Check your answers! (posted tomorrow)
  • GRADE YOUR HOMEWORK! Learning is about making mistakes, then using a sample solution to work backwards and figure out those mistakes you made! Learning is not about "getting it right on the first try," or just doing your homework and never checking your work!
Here are the questions you can do (tonight) based on what we learned in class today (Thursday):
  • 2013 Free Response #2: part a (read above), part b (complete and score)
  • Ch. 12 HW: #13b, 27a, maybe 27b
    • For 13b you are asked "what could go wrong with the design." Remember, we're trying to collect a sample that represents the population, so consider how such a method may lead to a sample that does not represent the population it is supposed to

Today's Class Recap:
  • Quiz! (see the practice quiz from yesterday's post)
  • AP Registration forms due tomorrow!
  • Chapter 12 Notes: Sampling (lots of vocab)
    • Sampling Vocabulary:
      • Sampling Variability
      • Sample Size (not based on the size of the population!)
    • Intro to sampling methods...
      • Introduced "bodies of water" context
      • Why do we (have to) collect random samples?
      • Worked together to develop a procedure for a simple random sample
      • Tomorrow we'll work through the remaining sampling methods!


2013 Free Response:

Ch. 12 HW: Identifying Sampling Methods:


Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Wednesday = Study

**AP Exam Registration forms are DUE FRIDAY** DON'T FORGET!

Tonight's Homework:  

1.) Complete the "Statistic or Parameter?" worksheet (last night's homework), now also adding the correct notation/symbol for each. BE SURE TO HAVE THIS DONE....

2.) STUDY! Tomorrow we will start class with a short (10 minute) quiz about sampling...
  • Practice Quiz:
    • Complete these questions on separate paper
    • Pay attention to detail, wording, etc.--be specific
    • Check your answers (grade yourself) below! 
    • Tomorrow's quiz will look verrrrry similar to this!


  • Practice Quiz KEY:
  • Want more practice? Grab your textbook....
    • Complete p. 289-290, a-e for 1, 3, 5, 7, or 9 (and check in the back of the book) 


Today's Class Recap:
  • Stamp = more practice identifying sample, sampling frame, population, parameter of interest, sampling method
  • We will have a unit test on "methods of data collection," including experimental design, on Friday 2/1
  • AP Registration forms due Friday!
  • More Chapter 12 Intro Notes: Sampling (lots of vocab)
    • 3 parts to chapter 12:
      • Sampling: What is it? Why do we do it? (Tues/Weds)
      • Collecting Samples: HOW--types of sampling methods (Thurs/Fri/Mon)
      • Potential Problems with Samples: Bias (Tues/Weds/Thurs)
    • Statistics v. Parameters (what's the difference?)
    • Statistics v. Parameters (notation/symbols)
    • Sampling Vocabulary:
      • Sampling Variability
      • Sample Size (not based on the size of the population!)
    • What does it mean for a sample to be random? (A only)
      • Definition of random (events) (A only)

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Tuesday HW!

**AP Exam Registration forms are DUE FRIDAY**

Let's start the second semester strong!

We have two areas of focus for the remainder of the year:

1.) Be thorough. Be detailed. Don't just go through the motions--this applies to completing our homework (no more credit for lazy hw), to writing our answers on quizzes/tests, and to anything else that we do.

2.) Learn from our mistakes! Don't make the same mistake twice! More so, this means putting in the work to learn from our mistakes--look over questions we answered incorrectly, try extra practice, use resources on the blog (and elsewhere online), etc.

**You can still earn stamps (based on examining our midterm data)--due tomorrow--check the blog post below!**

Tuesday HW; we will have a quiz to assess this stuff to start class on Thursday!

1.) Complete the population/sample/sampling frame etc. worksheet provided in class (or below).
  • Answers are posted below--always check! Work to learn, not to finish!






2.) Complete the "Statistics or Parameter" worksheet (or below).
  • You do not have to provide the "correct symbol/mathematical notation for the statistic or parameter," as we have not learned these yet (tomorrow)
  • So instead, simply label each as a "statistic" or a "parameter."
  • Statistic: any value that summarizes/describes a sample of data
  • Parameter: any value that summarizes/describes a population


HW Key (for worksheet #1):


Today's Class Recap:
  • Stamp = get to know your new neighbors
    • Discussed the stamp grade--you cannot ignore all of the stamp opportunities to earn a high grade on your stamps!
    • Q3 will have the highest stamp requirement!
  • We will have a unit test on "methods of data collection," including experimental design, on Friday 2/1
  • AP Registration forms due Friday!
  • Chapter 12 Intro Notes (lots of vocab):
    • 3 parts to chapter 12:
      • Sampling: What is it? Why do we do it? (Tues/Weds)
      • Collecting Samples: HOW--types of sampling methods (Thurs/Fri/Mon)
      • Potential Problems with Samples: Bias (Tues/Weds/Thurs)
    • Sample v. Population
    • Sampling Vocabulary:
      • Sample, Sampling Frame, Population, Population Parameter (of interest), Sample Statistics
      • Parameters v. Statistics: what's the difference? what are they?



Thursday, January 17, 2019

Midterms and Tuesday!

1.) Midterm exam grades are in! Read all the info below for a breakdown of how the midterm scoring worked....

2.) On Tuesday it's back to work! We'll start chapter 12 on Tuesday--one more chapter on how to collect data. We'll cover chapter 12 for about 1.5 weeks, and then the plan is to have a unit test on data collection on Friday, 2/1 (Sample Surveys, Experimental Design, and Observational Studies)!

Want to get a head start and have some free time? Read the chapter (12 in our book) on sample surveys! Lots of vocab here!

3.) First stamp problem of the third quarter is at the bottom of this post!

Midterm Exam Scoring Breakdown:

  1. First, I graded your exams and calculated your raw score, or the overall % of the exam points you earned. Raw scores ranged from 16.75% correct to 92.5% correct.
  2. Next, I listed all exam scores in order, from highest to lowest (see the raw score conversion chart below).
  3. Third, I used the distribution of the 2018 AP Exam scores as well as recent "cut score" data (what raw scores correspond to what AP scores) to establish cut scores for our exam (see below).
  4. Finally, I used converted all raw scores to projected AP score (1,2, 3, 4, 5), and then translated those grades to numeric midterm scores...
    • So, if you got an A that translates to a projected 5, a B to a projected 4, C projects to a 3, a D projects to a 2, and an F to a 1.
    • Additionally, you can gauge how "close" you were to a score--for instance, if you got a 69 on the midterm, that means you were realllly close to a projected 3! (focus on the positive)!


Many of us did not put enough work to try to earn stamps last quarter, and as a result, missed an opportunity to boost our average, or in many cases (and even worse), our stamp grade lowered our average--don't let this happen! 

You have to take advantage of stamp opportunities if you want to do well in that grade!

First stamp problem of the second quarter: answer each question below on separate paper!

1. Write your name, your raw score (use the table above to work backward from your midterm grade in PowerSchool), and your projected AP score (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

2. Reflect on your preparation for the exam. Write at least 3 complete sentences reflecting on your preparation; here are some things to consider--you don't have to answer all of these, this is just me trying to offer some things you might reflect on--or maybe you don't write about any of this stuff!
  • What went well for you in your exam prep/studying?
  • How did you study for the exam--what worked? what didn't? What might you do differently next time?
  • Did you study? If not, why not? What did you learn from this experience?
  • How will you prepare for the AP exam differently? Or will you do the same thing you did for the midterm?
  • How does your midterm performance affect your view of the AP exam in May?
3. Now, consider our whole class performance--what are 3 positives from our midterm exam performance this year?

4. Again, consider our whole class performance (this year)--what are two things that we need to improve on?

ALL ANSWERS MUST BE IN COMPLETE SENTENCES. 

Overall I think this data is positive, and this midterm suggests we're in a pretty good place moving forward, but we definitely have work to do to improve. I think this shows there are many things that we know and can do well, and if we can all continue to work to improve we definitely have the potential to earn the highest % of "qualifying scores" (3 or above) in EHHS AP Stat history.

In terms of areas for improvement, two things stood out to me:

1.) Many of us were very lazy with our written answers. This can't happen. I intend to be MUCH more harsh with my grading in regard to this, as many of  us aren't following through--like I have mentioned in class, if we are lazy/half-ass on our homework responses that's what we'll do on our test. No more homework credit for lazy answers. 

2.) Many of us did not put in the effort to learn from our mistakes. This makes me question how much/how little some of us studied, as we missed many opportunities for "easy" points because we did not put in the time/effort to learn from our mistakes, and as a result, made the same mistakes on the exam. Life is about learning from experience. 

These will continue to be areas of emphasis for the second semester.

I can't wait to see you all on Tuesday! Until then, have an amazing (long weekend), get this stamp done NOW, and read chapter 12! 

DO BETTER THAN YOU DID IN SEMESTER 1 (even if you had a 100% average). We can all always do better.

I plan to do the same.

Peace. See ya'll soon.



Friday, January 11, 2019

Midterm Stuff!

STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, STUDY. 

This post contains A LOT of information/resources...it's a long one....use it all....

STAMPS are DUE on EXAM DAY! 
  • Get all of your stamps together
  • Count the number of stamps
  • Count again to double check
  • Write the total number of stamps on the front paper
  • Put them all together (in a folder, envelope, bag, cut out all the stamps and glue them to paper--whatever works)
  • I will generate 5 random names per class and check those totals; if your total number of stamps is incorrect you will receive a 0 for that grade

Here are some ways I would recommend studying:
  1. Complete the "suggested free response" homework questions AND score your responses! 
  2. Do extra free response!
    • (ALWAYS) Score your response--this will allow you to check your understanding, and it will also give you some insight into how I will be grading your midterms!
    • Link to ALL released FR and Scoring Rubrics: CLICK ME!
      • Choose the "free response questions" to see all questions for a given year
      • Choose the "scoring guidelines" (for the appropriate year) to see the scoring rubric--scroll down to the appropriate number to find the rubrics
  3. Look over your review stamps!
    • Especially the stamp from yesterday that we did not go over--be sure to figure out anything you did wrong!
  4. Review old tests (and quizzes)
    • All of our unit test use released free response and multiple choice--look over these tests, review your work, and figure out any questions you answered in correctly
  5. Review your notes! (and create an outline)
    • Reading through your notes is great, but if you really want to take it to the next level, create an outline of your notes! You can type up an outline (which will inherently help you to remember a lot more than just reading your notes), and then you'll have an outline you can read through on your phone (or print it out) while you're on the bus or have free time at any point!
  6. Do the midterm review multiple choice packet! (sent out before break, sent today via remind, or email me for a copy)
  7. Watch videos to review specific topics! (AP Stat Guy, Youtube, etc.)
  8. Use the practice tests linked on the right!
Midterm Exam Format:
  • Section 1 = 60 minutes = 29 multiple choice (50% of score)
  • Section 2 = 60 minutes = 5 free response (50% of score)
Midterm Review (MC) Packet Answer Key:
  • This was provided via Remind today, or some of you took a paper copy from me. You can also email me if you need a copy of this packet.
  • This packet covers "the basics," but many of these multiple choice are easier/more direct than an AP MC or FR--but it's still a great resource for practicing the fundamentals!
  • If you think I made an error let me know!
Thursday Stamp Solutions/Hints: LOOK AT THIS! LEARN FROM YOUR MISTAKES! 

Free Response (and MC) provided in class today (answer key):


AP Exam Review 2018-19: Topic List
1.       Creating/Describing Distributions (Chapters 1-6)
a.       Understanding independence
                                                               i.      Two-Way/Contingency Tables
b.      Creating a histogram—by hand and on calculator
c.       Creating a boxplot—by hand and on calculator
                                                               i.      Determining outliers using fences
d.      Creating/Reading/Describing…
                                                               i.      Dotplot
                                                             ii.      Stem and Leaf plot
                                                            iii.      Bar graph/pie chart (categorical displays)
e.      Describing a distribution
                                                               i.      Shape: skewed vs. symmetric; with a histogram we can also comment on modality (unimodal, bimodal, etc.)
                                                             ii.      Center: mean vs. median; know how these relate for different shapes of distributions (skewed, symmetric); also, know how to calculate each
                                                            iii.      Spread: standard deviation vs. IQR (and can also use range)
1.       Know how to interpret IQR
                                                           iv.      Note gaps
                                                             v.      Note outliers
                                                           vi.      Comparing boxplots
f.        Adding a constant to a data set: affects center, but not spread (shifting)
g.       Multiplying by a constant to a data set: affects both center and spread (rescaling)
h.      Understanding percentiles
                                                               i.      Ogives
i.         The Normal Model
                                                               i.      What is a z-score?
                                                             ii.      Calculating z-scores
                                                            iii.      Using z-scores to find probability
1.       Normalcdf(lower bound, upper bound, mean, standard deviation)
2.       Using z-table (not necessary if you can use normalcdf)
3.       68/95/99.7 rule
                                                           iv.      Using z-scores to find “cutoff values for percentiles
1.       Invnorm(percentile, mean, standard deviation)
2.       OR, use the z-table to work backwards and find the corresponding z-score for a given percentile; invnorm(percentile) will also give this z-score
3.       Find the IQR for a Normal distribution
2.       Linear Regression (Chapters 7-9, part of 10)
a.       Describe an association: form/shape, direction, strength (reference r)
                                                               i.      Characteristics and definition of correlation (r)
b.      Interpret slope
c.       Interpret y-intercept
d.      Reading computer output—identify slope, y-int, R^2, find r, variables (what is x? y?)
e.      Interpreting the Coefficient of Determination (R^2)
f.        Residuals
                                                               i.      Definition/calculation (actual – predicted)
                                                             ii.      Using residuals to find an actual/observed value
                                                            iii.      Examining/creating a residual plot
1.       Is a linear model appropriate?
                                                           iv.      Overestimate: residual is (-); Underestimate: residual is (+)
                                                             v.      Residual plot on the calculator
1.       Do the LinReg first, then set y-list (in Statplot) to RESID
g.       Finding LSRL with calculator
                                                               i.      STATàCALCà(8)LinReg(a+bx) L1, L2, Y1
1.       Used to find r, R^2
2.       Also need to do this before you can look at a residual plot
h.      Outliers, Influence, and Leverage
                                                               i.      Definitions of each
                                                             ii.      How can we identify an influential point? (compare regression statistics)
                                                            iii.      Determine if slope, r, y-int will increase/decrease (or neither) when we add or remove a point
i.         Lurking Variables
                                                               i.      Definition
                                                             ii.      These are why we cannot determine cause and effect
3.       Probability (Chapters 14 – 17)
a.       Calculating probabilities using “AND, OR, NOT, GIVEN”
                                                               i.      At least one… problems
                                                             ii.      Disjoint/mutually exclusive
                                                            iii.      independence
b.      Venn Diagrams
c.       Conditional Probability
                                                               i.      Tree Diagrams
                                                             ii.      Identify conditional probability if you are “given” information or “know something is true.”
                                                            iii.      Independence Formula: P(B/A) = P(A)
d.      Disjoint, independent, or neither?
e.      Calculate probabilities for events without replacement
                                                               i.      Change the fractions!
f.        Expected Value and Variance
                                                               i.      Create probability models/probability distributions
1.       Calculate expected value (mean) and standard deviation for a probability model
2.       Interpret expected value; use expected value to make decisions
3.       Discrete vs. continuous random variables
                                                             ii.      Combining random variables
1.       Remember, we cannot add standard deviations but we can ALWAYS ADD VARIANCES
2.       Using a Normal model after finding a new E(X), variance
                                                            iii.      Shifting: adding/subtracting a value to each outcome
1.       How is the mean and/or standard deviation affected?
                                                           iv.      Rescaling: multiplying/dividing each outcome by some value/constant
1.       How is the mean and/or standard deviation affected?
g.       Bernoulli Trials
                                                               i.      Definition: 3 characteristics
h.      Binomial Probability Distribution
                                                               i.      Binomialpdf( à Used when given a specific sample size and one specific number of successes
                                                             ii.      Binomialcdf( à Cumulative; used when given a specific sample size and multiple numbers of successes; at least, at most, between questions
                                                            iii.      10% condition
                                                           iv.      Expected Value: “How many “successes” do we expect in a sample of size n?” E(x) = np
                                                             v.      Use a Normal model to approximate binomial probabilities
1.       Like #12 from our take home test
2.       If np>10 and nq>10 then we can use a Normal model for binomial probabilities
3.       Mean = np; standard deviation = sqrt(npq)
i.         Geometric Probability Distribution
                                                               i.      Used to calculate the “first”
                                                             ii.      Expected Value: “How many ____ until our first “success” = 1/p
                                                            iii.      Geometpdf(p, when is the first?)
                                                           iv.      Geometcdf(p, first?); remember, this gives us every possibility “to the left”
1.       For example, geometcdf(.5, 5) gives us the probability that our first success is 5th or 4th or 3rd or 2nd or 1st 
4.       Methods of Data Collection: Experimental Desighn (chapter13)
a.       Design an experiment
                                                               i.      Identify factors and levels of each
                                                             ii.      Identify treatment groups
                                                            iii.      Identify response variable
                                                           iv.      Explain how to randomly assign treatments
b.      Blocking:
                                                               i.      Determine an appropriate blocking variable and explain why it is an appropriate variable to block by
                                                             ii.      Identify blocks vs. factors in an experiment
                                                            iii.      Understand how to assign treatments in a blocked design
                                                           iv.      Design/critique a randomized blocked experiment
c.       Single v. Double Blinding
                                                               i.      Understand each, recognize if an experiment is single/double blinded
d.      Confounding Variables
                                                               i.      Identify confounding variables and explain what this means in context
e.      Determine if a study is an experiment or observational study

5.       General Exam Tips:
·         DO WHAT YOU ARE MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT FIRST; YOU DO NOT HAVE TO DO THE TEST IN ORDER!
·         Read each free-response question first (before you start the test)
o   Work on the questions you are most confident about first to maximize your time
o   You may not finish, so you want to leave the hardest question for last—don’t miss out on the opportunity to earn points!
o   You have, on average, 13 minutes per question
o   No blank questions! Try something! You have lots of good ideas so write them down!
§  If you need an answer from “b” to do “c,” but you don’t know how to do “b,” you can make up a reasonable answer for b
§  If you then use that answer for part c, you will still earn credit!
·         Multiple choice: skip questions if you’re stumped!
o   If you get stuck on a question, mark on the test, then go back at the end
o   You have about 2 min 15 sec per multiple choice question (on average), so you don’t want to spend too long on a tough question
§  Go back to it at the end so you can spend more time on the questions you know how to do!
o   DO NOT LEAVE ANY MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS BLANK!
§  You only earn a point for a correct response, you are not penalized for wrong answers; SO NO BLANKS!
·         Do not rush and overlook details, but be mindful of your time