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Friday, December 2, 2016

Weekend HW! (And Friday's Classwork if you were out or didn't finish...)

This weekend, please complete some more tree diagram practice--an insurance related example with wind damage, and an HIV testing example! 

  • For the Gulf Coast example your first set of branches should refer to the wind speed--either it's over (>) than x mph, or the wind is less than (<) x mph
    • Then, based on the wind speed, we have to determine if the water damage came from above or below...so our next set of branches should show "damage from above" or "damage from below"!
  • The challenge with questions a-f will be recognizing which questions are conditional and which are not! Good luck!
  • For the HIV Testing example, our first set of branches should show whether a person has HIV or not; the prevalence of HIV tells us the probability that someone has HIV...
    • Then, regardless if a person has HIV or not, if they take this test they can test positive or negative (unfortunately our medical tests aren't perfect, so sometimes people get false positives--people who aren't ill actually test positive--or false negatives--people who actually are ill test negative)...
    • So, our next set of branches should show the probability that a person tests + or tests - with the Oraquick test!
      • The percents given about the Oraquick test tell us the percent (or probability) that the test is accurate--to decide if the probability goes with the + or - branch, think: if a person does have HIV, what would be accurate? + or -? If a person does not have HIV, what would be accurate? + or -?
Here are the homework questions if you lost yours, forgot it, or were out:



Friday's classwork is below--if you did not finish in class, you can complete any questions you didn't finish on separate paper! You must show all work and record your answer! If you're not sure which problems you didn't finish, do them all! This must be turned in Monday.

IF YOU WERE ABSENT YOU SHOULD WORK ON THIS CLASSWORK! If not, you'll have to do it all Monday night!

Classwork Questions:



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